NFL DFS Prime Time Showdown: Week 16 Saturday Night Football Dolphins at Raiders | DraftKings + FanDuel

Greetings, NFL DFS Gamers! Welcome to the Awesemo daily fantasy football Single-Game Prime Time series for FanDuel and DraftKings Showdown slates. For each of the featured games, typically Sunday Night Football, Monday Night Football and Thursday Night Football slates, we will be providing free analysis for the single-slate action on DraftKings and FanDuel. This will include team capsules as well as player rankings and comments for all of your daily fantasy needs. We have loads of information and NFL DFS picks to get into for both DraftKings and FanDuel on this Week 16 Saturday Night Football slate between the Miami Dolphins and Las Vegas Raiders.

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NFL DFS Picks: Week 16 Saturday Night Football DraftKings + FanDuel

Miami Dolphins: 22.5

Quarterback

In an interesting twist, the Dolphins have clearly been forced to pass more than they would like. Part of this has been a combination of injured running backs and, of course, playing from behind. Using the newly created Awesemo Advanced NFL Stats (beta) we can see that Miami averages a 41.5% rushing / 58.5% passing mix when faced with a neutral game script (as defined by the score, time on the clock, etc.).

Keep in mind that half of Miami’s games have been with Ryan Fitzpatrick under center. In the seven games where rookie Tua Tagovailoa started, the Dolphins ran more than 28 passing plays only twice. Okay, taking all of this into account, the Raiders’ 21st ranked passing DVOA is still a nice matchup for Tagovailoa. They also have the 31st rushing DVOA, but we will get there in the running back section.

The other wrinkle in this is that DeVante Parker (hamstring), Jakeem Grant (hamstring) and tight end Mike Gesicki (shoulder) are all listed as questionable after missing last week. Parker and Gesicki did participate in limited practice during the week and are going to be game-time-decisions, though it is expected that at least one, if not both, will suit up. The recent updates do not seem as optimistic about Grant, but with the team travelling on a holiday week, who knows for sure.

The Awesemo projections have the potential Rookie of the Year as the 13th ranked quarterback for the full week. On a fun note, Tagovailoa has three rushing touchdowns in his last two games.

Running Back

Myles Gaskin was activated from the COVID-19 reserve and is expected to start on Saturday night. Salvon Ahmed his backup – both with the Dolphins and previously with the University of Washington Huskies – is coming off a nice game and will likely be worked in to keep Gaskin effective. Matt Breida saw 19 snaps on Sunday after missing two weeks on the COVID-19 list, it is likely he will be active along with Patrick Laird. Even on the short slate it will be tough to go beyond Gaskin and Ahmed at the position.

Wide Receiver

Everything here hinges on the health and availability of DeVante Parker and Jakeem Grant. If one or both are active, they will slot in ahead of rookie Lynn Bowden Jr, veteran practice squad mainstay Mack Hollins and Isaiah Ford, who was traded to the Patriots at the trade deadline, before being cut and re-signed by Miami.

In a plot twist ever-appropriate for 2020, Bowden was actually selected by the Raiders in the third round of the most recent NFL Draft. He was dealt to the Dolphins before the start of the season along with a sixth rounder in exchange for Miami’s fourth round choice in 2021. Talk about trading a quarter for two dimes.

With the many moving parts detailed above, check back closer to kickoff; I will update the rankings if we get any additional information. Otherwise default to the order as the names appear in the first paragraph of this section.

Tight End

Last week Durham Smythe and Adam Shaheen each played about 60% of the snaps with Mike Gesicki (hamstring) sidelined. Assuming Gesicki is healthy if active, he is the top option though there will be the risk of reinjury. Smythe is the preferred option if Gesicki is out, and he is a great value play if Gesicki is inactive.

Defense/Special Teams

While the Raiders allowed five sacks to Atlanta in Week 12, in their other games since Week 9 they have allowed 1, 0, 0, 2, 0, and 1, which is actually impressive. They do lead the league with 13 fumbles and their 21 combined turnovers rank seventh. Miami passed Pittsburgh and now leads the league with 26 takeaways, including Xavien Howard‘s league leading nine interceptions. Their 2.7 sacks ranks solidly 10th on the season. DraftKings did give them a premium boost, but this unit is still in play even on the road.

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Las Vegas Raiders: 29.0

Quarterback

Derek Carr has been solid this season with 24 touchdowns against seven interceptions. He also has a career high 141 rushing yards, nearly double each of his most recent four season totals, along with two rushing scores. It would seem having a reliable ground game suits the sixth-year veteran.

Unfortunately, this is going to be a difficult matchup, as Miami boasts the fifth best passing DVOA. In their last five outings only Patrick Mahomes has topped 300 yards and the Dolphins have allowed just one passing touchdown beyond the two Mahomes put on the board. However, the big reveal in all of this is that, other than Mahomes, they have faced Cam Newton, Brandon Allen, Ryan Finley, Sam Darnold and Drew Lock. Context does matter!

The Awesemo premium projections have Carr just one fantasy point behind Tagovailoa. This means he is squarely in the mix for Captain/MVP consideration on the short slate. Of course, his backers will be holding their collective breath as Carr is just nine days removed from his groin pull that knocked him out of the last edition of Thursday Night Football.

Wanna bet?

Alex “Awesemo” Baker’s projected stats (part of Awesemo+) have Derek Carr with 250.3 passing yards, which makes the over 234.5 at -1129 on OddsShopper an intriguing way to hedge some our DraftKings and FanDuel DFS lineups. Click on the image below to start shopping for the best edge in betting and check out all the player props available for the Saturday Night Football action between the Las Vegas Raiders and Miami Dolphins.

Running Back

While Josh Jacobs has a good chance at reaching the 1,000 yard mark in this matchup, his 3.7 yards per carry are incredibly pedestrian. The big play upside has not been there either as he has just two carries for more than 20 yards. For perspective, backup Devontae Booker has four on 163 fewer carries. Even Jalen Richard has one and he has only 20 carries total on the season. Jacobs’ passing game involvement has been shaky as well, with 15 targets in his last seven games. A sole slim silver lining is that he has 11 in his last three games. However, the season long line of 42 targets for 33/238/0 and a measly 7.2 yards per reception is anemic.

Devontae Booker for $1,200 and even Jalen Richard at $1,000 are in play on DraftKings with their low price tags and involvement in the passing game. On FanDuel they are both a reach at $8,500 and $6,000 respectively.

While Miami has ceded only two rushing touchdowns in their last seven games, they have allowed seven different running backs to gain more than 70 combined yards.

Wide Receiver

After scoring five touchdowns in the first half of the season, Nelson Agholor has cooled down with only two in his last half dozen games. Clearly, he is still the lead wide receiver for Las Vegas, but Hunter Renfrow has been closing the gap. Over the last four games, Agholor has 34 targets and Renfrow has 24, with all other receivers combining for 14 targets.

Henry Ruggs was out last week with COVID-19 and, though he has been activated from the reserve list, the rookie’s effectiveness will be in question. Fellow freshman Bryan Edwards does not have a target in his last two games, despite averaging 22 snaps. Zay Jones will take the biggest hit with the return of Ruggs. This brings us full circle to focusing on just Agholor and Renfrow.

Tight End

Darren Waller, of course, is the de-facto WR1 for the Raiders. Waller has five fewer targets than Agholor and Renfrow combined this season, and trails his teammate duo by just one touchdown. He should top the 1,000 receiving yard plateau Saturday night, needing just 34 yards to do so. In his last three games, Waller has 425 receiving yards and three scores, hauling in 29 of his 39 targets. In the last seven games, the other tight ends have seen seven total targets combined, though Foster Moreau and Jason Witten have both found paydirt in fine 2020 fashion.

Defense/Special Teams

Miami has allowed multiple sacks in five of their last seven games, with seven turnovers. Anything can happen with a rookie under center, but Las Vegas has the fifth fewest takeaways with barely one per game, and they have the same sack rate which is ahead of only Tennessee.

Saturday Night DraftKings Showdown + FanDuel Single Game NFL DFS Strategy

The rankings below are best utilized for building out single-entry and three-max lineups and also for head-to-head and three-man formats. They provide a nice barometer for player value, but for those of you who are taking the MME approach, remember that correlation with your lineups is key. This means matching a receiver or two if you have a quarterback in the Captain/MVP slot. This also works conversely with pairing a Captain/MVP pass catcher with their signal-caller.

EMac’s Week 16 Saturday Night Football DraftKings + FanDuel NFL DFS Rankings

Week 16 Saturday Night Football Top 10 NFL DFS Picks

1. Tua Tagovailoa: Wow, when I started the research I did not expect that a rookie making his eighth start would top the list.
2. Darren Waller: Healthy, which is something we cannot say about a lot of the options in this game.
3. Derek Carr: This is terrifying. If he were 100% he would top the list, but like many of you I got crushed when he went down last Thursday.
4. Myles Gaskin: If you are worried about COVID-19 impacting him, swap him with Jacobs. My hope is he gets appropriate relief from Ahmed and is effective in the high leverage opportunities.
5. Josh Jacobs: We are counting on pure volume here. The lack of dynamic plays is alarming (just two runs of 20+ this season).
6. Daniel Carlson/Jason Sanders: Woo Hoo, Kickers!
7. Lynn Bowden: We need the savings on DraftKings. On FanDuel he is below the Raiders top two receivers unless one of Parker/Grant are out.
8. Hunter Renfrow: Take the discount on both sites over Agholor.
9. Nelson Agholor: Still gets the nod over the Miami guys harboring injuries, if they get a clean bill of health, move them one spot over the former USC Trojan.
10. Mike Gesicki: Somehow I feel better about a shoulder injury for a tight end than hamstring issues for wide receivers, also gets a price break.

Week 16 Saturday Night Football Secondary NFL DFS Picks

1. DeVante Parker: Drops five spots with the hamstring concerns. Miami is tied with Baltimore for the final AFC Playoff berth.
2. Miami D/ST: No price break for us on DraftKings, this is the proper ranking with that consideration.
3. Salvon Ahmed: Sadly, both sites priced him like the RB1. Swap his ranking with Gaskin’s in the unlikely event he is a late scratch.
4. Durham Smythe: Nice discount, still getting targets even when Gesicki is playing.
5. Marcus Mariota: If he starts, move him up to Carr’s spot. If Carr starts, well keep him here and don’t play both in the same lineup.

Week 16 Saturday Night Football Lottery Tickets NFL DFS Picks

1. Las Vegas D/ST: Even with a rookie under center, this unit has been underwhelming this season.
2. Henry Ruggs: This does not make me feel good, but he has not produced with any regularity.
3. Jalen Richard: Needs a negative game flow, in play around lineup 35+ on DraftKings.
4. Mack Hollins, Adam Shaheen, Zay Jones and Matt Breida: Needs a projected starter to be out, even then they only go to the top of this section.
5. Alec Ingold, Jason Witten, Foster Moreau, Bryan Edwards, Theo Riddick: Time to head to the kitchen for holiday feast leftovers!

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