The second Monday Night Football game of 2020 features the Las Vegas Raiders playing host to the New Orleans Saints. The Saints are 5.5-point favorites and the game has a total of 48.5. As with all of my NFL DFS Showdown Strategy pieces for DraftKings and FanDuel, you can find the data that backs the takes in this article with Nolan Kelly kicking off the breakdown in his own NFL Showdown piece. All showdown NFL DFS picks and trend data can be found in this sheet that will be updated after each full NFL week concludes.
NFL DFS Picks: Showdown Strategy, Optimal Lineup Construction | Raiders vs. Saints MNF
Showdown Captain
Alvin Kamara
The Saints are likely going into Monday night without their star receiver, Michael Thomas. Adam Schefter reported there’s a glimmer of hope that he will play. That still sounds like a Week 3 return. That means the offense is going to run trough Kamara. It also means he’s an incredibly expensive Captain ($17,100) and is projected to be one of the highest-owned players at the Captain spot. Because of his outrageous ownership, it makes sense to look elsewhere and simply target him as a Flex play. His price could make it so that even if he has a good game, he isn’t the optimal Captain but still comes in as a viable option at Flex.
Emmanuel Sanders
Sanders got a price bump ($13,200) because of the absence of Thomas, but it’s possible that the increase isn’t enough. Thomas caught an NFL-record 149 passes last year on 185 targets. The Saints are either going to change up their offense greatly in the span of a week or they’re going to divvy up his role to a few players. Sanders finished with three catches for 15 yards but did find the end zone in Week 1. It requires a projected role increase, but his price could seem low by halftime.
Editor’s Note:
Want to hedge a fade or a lock in your NFL DFS lineups? OddsShopper allows you to find the best price on player props, allowing you to get the most bang for your buck. Combined with Awesemo’s premium player projections, OddsShopper can give you all the information you need to make money on soft prop lines. Click on the image below to start shopping!
Tre’Quan Smith
Sanders is going to get an obvious amount of ownership at Captain because of Thomas’ injury, but that may trickle down to fellow Saints wideouts including Smith. When Smith is on the field, he makes things happen. Smith has played over 60% of the Saints’ offensive snaps in 19 of 27 regular season games. He’s scored in nine of 19 games and has two games over 100 yards. He should get that kind of opportunity again this week. Smith, unlike Kamara, also falls into the price range of typical Captains.
Raiders Players
Raiders players are generally less appealing Captain options because their team is projected to lose by 5.5 points, and there are potential values on the Saints in Smith and Sanders. However, there are two ways to attack the team that make some sense. Henry Ruggs stayed mostly quiet in Week 1, but he did start his NFL career in a speedy fashion.
Guarantee you Jon Gruden loved seeing this. Derek Carr connects with the speedy Henry Ruggs for a big gain. Josh Jacobs later scored to cap off the drive.pic.twitter.com/LHCHfwDkZ5
— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) September 13, 2020
He only saw an 18% target share in the Raiders opener, but he accounted for over half of the team’s air yards. He also missed some snaps with an injury but returned. That kind of play-making upside is worth chasing at Captain.
Josh Jacobs punched in three scores against a terrible Carolina defense, but the most important thing he showed in Week 1 was his pass-catching chops. He caught four of six targets, which were both second on the team.
Related NFL DFS Content
- Awesemo YouTube Channel — NFL DFS Picks & Strategy
- NFL DFS – Fantasy Cruncher Groups-Think: Week 2
- From the Slot: FREE Week 2 NFL DFS Picks Based on Awesemo’s Grades
- Cover the Field: WR vs CB Matchups for Week 2 NFL DFS | Julio Jones
- NFL Week 2 Survivor Picks + Strategy | Titans or Bucs?
- NFL Data Deep-Dive: Recapping All The Week 1 Data (FREE This Week Only)
- Awesemo’s NFL DFS Projections (PREMIUM)
- Alex ‘Awesemo’ Baker’s Top Stack Tool (PREMIUM)
NFL DFS Picks: Showdown Flex Considerations
Quarterbacks
Drew Brees and Derek Carr are both solid Flex plays but don’t have much value as Captain choices in tournaments. Brees has used for more than 15 yards twice in his time in New Orleans. Carr has topped 15 yards in nine of 95 career games. Because of this, their success likely propels a receiving option to a better scored based on their salary.
Darren Waller
This game features two tight ends that could put up solid scores but history would say to bet against them at Captain. Last year, one winning lineup featured a tight end at Captain, and that was George Kittle. There are no tight ends in this game as good as Kittle. Waller led the Raiders in targets in Week 1 (eight) but only converted them to six catches for 45 yards. Even though Jacobs improved as a pass catcher, Jalen Richard and Devontae Booker combined for four targets. Don’t go too crazy believing Jacobs is the next Saquon Barkley. He’s still better used in lineups built on the premise that the Raiders are able to keep it close. Because of his target upside, Waller makes sense as a player who vacuums up targets as the Raiders are getting blown out.
Jared Cook
Cooks is a fantastic Flex play in lineups with Brees. He was second on the Saints in targets (seven) and first in air yards 66. Tight ends typically have a low target depth but Cook is an oddity in that regard. His 10.4 average depth of target was second among tight ends last year.
Defense and Kickers
Both kickers are viable but the game total of 48.5 does indicate that a lot of touchdowns will be scored in this game and kickers don’t have access to touchdowns. In Week 1, both teams did play in games with high totals and their respective kickers each topped 10 DraftKings points.
The Raiders defense scored zero points against the Panthers and the Saints are a markedly better offense than the Panthers. Play them at your own risk. Carr has an interception rate below two percent and a sack rate below five percent. He’s not fun, but he doesn’t make mistakes. That caps the Saints upside as a defense and only puts them in play if the Raiders simply can’t put more than a lone touchdown or a few field goals on the board.
Lower-Owned NFL Picks
Latavius Murray
Murray led the Saints with 15 carries in Week 1 and didn’t convert his long target. Only five of his carries came in the first half but it’s possible that the Saints blow out the Raiders and he’s involved late once again. Last year, Murray caught multiple passes in eight games with Kamara healthy and score in two healthy games for Kamara. His $3,400 tag makes a handful of catches or a score worth chasing.
Taysom Hill
The Swiss army knife is in play based on his Week 1 usage. He carried three times, attempted a pass, and saw one target. His $2,200 cost makes his absurd efficiency–he scored six times on 19 receptions last year–a way for him to find the optimal lineup.
Devontae Booker
Booker saw four carries and three targets to Richard’s zero carries and one target. He’s likely the direct backup to Jacobs and has a small window of pass-catching upside.
Follow us on all of our social channels! Check out our Twitter, Facebook, Instagram and YouTube for more great Awesemo content.
Looking for more NFL DFS picks content? We’ve got loads of articles, data, cheatsheets and more on the Awesemo NFL home page, just click HERE.