Showdown Strategy: Thursday Night Football NFL DFS | Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Miami Dolphins

The third Thursday Night Football game of 2020 features a tradition as old as the forward pass itself: The Jacksonville Jaguars playing another terrible football team on Thursday. This time they face the Dolphins as 3-point favorites. The game has a total of 48 points. As with all of my NFL DFS Showdown Strategy pieces for DraftKings and FanDuel, you can find the data that backs the takes in this article with Nolan Kelly kicking off the breakdown in his own NFL Showdown piece. All showdown NFL DFS picks and trend data can be found in this sheet that will be updated after each full NFL week concludes.

NFL DFS Picks: Showdown Strategy, Lineup Construction | Jaguars vs. Dolphins Thursday Night Football

Showdown Captain

Top Receivers

Both teams playing on Thursday night have a supposed top receiver who has been underperforming through two weeks:

The two are third and fourth on their teams in targets, respectively. This doesn’t appear to be scaring the public off as these two are projected to be the highest-owned non-quarterbacks of the slate. Nearly two-thirds of the field is expected to play one of the passers or top receivers at Captain. That makes this slate a great one to pivot to cheaper players for your premium roster spot.

Update: D.J. Chark has been ruled OUT.

The Better Receivers

The small sample of football we have to work with says that some of the teammates of the popular receivers should be in play Captain. Keelan Cole leads Jacksonville with an 18.8% target share and a 14.1% air yards share. Cole’s career has been on the decline since he broke out with 748 yards as a rookie. He could continue to turn things around as Jacksonville’s leading receiver on Thursday night and is only $8,100 at Captain.

Laviska Shenault hasn’t made waves as a receiver but he does have utility as both a wideout and back. He has 72 yards through the air and 47 on the ground. He’s only in play at Captain if Chark is out. Otherwise, he’s best used in the Flex.

Cole and Shenault both have ownership projections of 7-10% at the captain spot. Minshew is completing over 75% of his passes and has an adjusted yards per attempt of 8.3. Both players are worth their price and increased ownership at captain as bets on being Minshew’s top receiver.

The Miami receiving room comes down to Mike Gesicki. Only one winning Showdown lineup in the 2019 regular season featured a tight end in Captain, but it happened again during the playoffs. Those two instances saw George Kittle and Travis Kelce make the Captain spot. Gesicki isn’t on the level of those two, but he could look like them compared to the rest of the players on this slate. He has a 21.1% target share and a 33.1% air yards share. Both marks lead all Dolphins. Gesicki’s $11,100 tag is seventh highest on the slate despite him scoring more fantasy points per game (18) than all players but Gardner Minshew.

James Robinson

Robinson has 32 carries through two games and has converted that to 164 yards and a score. He only has five targets on the year. This may seem to cap his ceiling, but it also guarantees that if he has a good day, he’s the only beneficiary of his fantasy success. The Jaguars are favored by a field goal and have covered the spread twice this season. Robinson is a solid Captain play if the Jags cover.


Related NFL DFS Content


NFL DFS Picks: Showdown Flex Considerations

Quarterbacks

Both quarterbacks are viable at Captain, but their slate-leading ownership is a concern in large-field tournaments. Jacksonville has five players between five and eight targets. Miami has four players between 11 and 14. Cole and Gesicki have marginally separated themselves, but both offenses spread the ball around to an absurd degree. That means it’s possible for either passer to throw multiple touchdowns and have no receiver score enough points to warrant the Captain position.

Ryan Fitzpatrick and Minshew also have some rushing potential. Fitzpatrick has 30 yards on eight carries, while Minshew has 38 yards on one more carry. The passers are solid plays at Captain in cash games and small tournaments. They can both be played at MVP on FanDuel, even in larger tournaments.

Miami Running Backs

The Miami backfield is a mess:

  • Myles Gaskin – 16 carries, 11 targets, two red zone carries
  • Matt Breida – 12 carries, two targets, three red zone carries
  • Jordan Howard – 13 carries, no targets, five red zone carries

The carries and targets both point to Gaskinm and he’s the preferred play at $7,200. Breida is the cheapest of the three at $1,800 and earned seven carries and two targets in Week 2. Howard has gotten the red zone work but has no receiving value and was third on the team in carries last week.

Tyler Eifert

Eifert showed up in Week 2 after a quiet opener. He caught three of six targets for 36 yards and scored. He also played on 45 snaps to backup tight end James O’Shaughnessy‘s 35 snaps. O’Shaughnessy projects as a better value but could see his role continue to dwindle as Eifert trends upward.

Miami Receivers

Preston Williams is garnering over double the total ownership of fellow Miami wideout Isaiah Ford, but Ford could ultimately be the better play based on this ownership. Ford has two more targets and is averaging .8 more yards per target. He’s also catching 64.3% of his targets while Williams is only bringing down a quarter of his looks. Both are in play, but the leverage that Ford offers is intriguing for larger tournaments.

Kickers

Both kickers are in play, but the spread has moved from 1.5 to 3, and the total is up four points since opening. Kickers don’t have access to touchdowns, and Vegas expects this game to feature frequent scoring. That makes kickers easy fades.

Jaguars Defense

Fitzpatrick played well last week but has a history of catastrophic downturns. He’s thrown multiple interceptions in 30.2% of his starts and has given it up three or more times in 12.7%. A third of his starts feature three or more sacks for the opposing defense. The Jacksonville defense has been gutted over the past two years, but Fitzpatrick simply gives the ball away often enough to put them into consideration. Their $6,400 does necessitate multiple sacks and possibly a score, though.

Lower-Owned NFL Picks

Lynn Bowden

The Dolphins traded a sixth-round pick for Bowden toward the end of training camp, and he was inactive for Week 1 before playing on four snaps last week. He saw one target on those snaps. His role will expand as he gains practice reps with Miami. He’s currently at the minimum price of $200.

Chris Thompson

Thompson is solely a receiver at this point in his career. He only has two carries on the year but has caught five of six targets for 26 yards and a score. He’s in play particularly if Jacksonville loses as their passing volume should see an uptick along with Thompson’s snaps.


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Author
If you like fantasy football and care about data, there's a 50/50 chance I've written for your favorite site. In a few short years I've covered, season-long, dynasty, best ball, and DFS for football. I used to be watching games and pretend to know what I was talking about but now I just spew numbers that forecast outcomes better than any scout. Come for the numbers, stay for the bad jokes and Zach Zenner references. RIP XFL.

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