NFL Slant And Go: Elite Running Backs, Offensive Offenses, And Which Teams Can Build On Their Week 1 Breakouts?

We survived Week 1 and hopefully you either rode the advantage of the unknown to the top of some fields or, at the very least, learned enough to rally back for Week 2 of NFL action. We’ve got 13 games this time out – one more than last week’s kickoff weekend – and a lot of interesting spots, players likely to draw big ownership after their massive first game performances, and a nice mix of games that should be fun to watch.

To break down this Week 2 slate, I’m using a mix of 2017 and 2018 Week 1 data to analyze each game. As was the case in Week 1 (which even I sometimes lost sight of when getting too cute with some lineups), we’re looking for volume first and foremost while being highly mindful of potential game scripts and how the game’s events may break down. Alex Collins was a guy I loved last week but it’s hard for a game script to break your way when the opposing team can’t defend anything through the air either and the onslaught your team laid on both sides of the ball results in the starters getting to rest in the third quarter. So I’ll do my best to help you (and myself…especially myself) avoid these pitfalls in Week 2.

As always, the Slant and Go pairs best with Awesemo’s rankings and the ownership projections that will drop on Saturday. Sign up for Awesemo Premium using promo code SLANTANDGO for a one-week free trial to check all those out along with our Fantasy Cruncher add-on that will be free through 9/14. Sign up, build some lineups, get ready early without the weekend AM sweat. But now without further adieu, let’s get on to this week’s Sunday afternoon slate.

Minnesota Vikings (22.8 implied points) at Green Bay Packers (23.8 implied points)

The Vikings got by a feisty San Francisco team who hung as tough as they could in Week 1 but ultimately weren’t ready for the bright lights of one of the NFL’s most steadily competent defenses. The Niners were not the sharpest defense last year but did a good job containing the Vikings with the changes to their defensive unit. It seems unlikely that will be the case against these Packers. The Packers had the ball run down their throat in Week 1 but also allowed Mitch Trubisky to put up a very high completion rate by his standards. Kirk Cousins only completed 56% of his passes versus San Francisco and that number is very likely to jump, particularly if Aaron Rodgers is able to push the offense more than Jimmy Garoppolo was able to. Despite the change in offensive coordinator, the Vikings offense still heavily relied on the slot and Adam Thielen with 12 targets and a very solid 13.1 air yards per target. Thielen should get more catches this week and the numbers could pile up if the game becomes a shootout. Stefon Diggs gets less opportunity than Thielen but will continue to be viable in this offense. He’s proven to be more of a touchdown specialist than Thielen but he’ll get his chances to accomplish that goal:

Despite some concerns about Latavius Murray taking more of a share as Dalvin Cook recovers from his ACL injury, Cook outcarried Murray 16-11 and also got six catches, giving him 22 touches total. As mentioned above, the Packers did not show much defensively versus the rush or short pass game and it would not be surprising to see a big Cook day here. Lastly, Kyle Rudolph was not the target monster Jordan Reed was for Cousins in Washington but he will continue to get red zone looks. The Packers D shouldn’t funnel more targets to the TE position given their weakness in the secondary but Rudolph will get a few looks.

The Packers will go as Aaron Rodgers does and Rodgers declared that he would play this game even if the team is not sold yet. The only thing the Vikings D did poorly in Week 1 was pick up penalties so while it’s possible Rodgers does his usual and finds holes in the defense, it’s not going to be easy sledding. This is a team who can generate sacks, pressure, and turnovers and that Packers offensive line showed its deficiencies versus the Bears. Randall Cobb paced the Packers in targets in Week 1 and one would expect more of the same versus the Vikings given the pressure they can apply and the need for short routes to keep Rodgers clean. I’ll always like Davante Adams and Geronimo Allison did a good job seizing the leftover targets that Jordy Nelson’s departure provided but this doesn’t seem like the matchup to force those guys, maybe Allison due to his very cheap price. Jimmy Graham was a dud in Week 1 and this isn’t the matchup to get him back on track; the Vikings limited performance by TEs by 24.2% according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA statistic.

Philadelphia Eagles (23.5 implied points) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (20.5 implied points)

The Eagles offense looked iffy at best in their season opener versus Atlanta but this matchup versus Tampa Bay may be a much better one for every facet of the team. Tampa Bay did a decent job limiting the Saints’ run game, no small feat given Alvin Kamara’s explosiveness, but they were so bad through the air that it’s hard to fully grade how good or bad they may be versus the rush. Jay Ajayi established himself as the lead back in terms of touches out of the backfrield and in the red zone but he and Darren Sproles both picked up an even 40% of the offensive snaps in Week 1. I’d say Ajayi is very likely to punch at least one in versus Tampa but his overall workload is questionable to get you what you need at his price. Sproles at ~10 touches a game is similarly uninspiring. The pass game is a spot I’m curious about here, particularly if Tampa’s offense can keep them in the game. Drew Brees took whatever he wanted through the air and while Nick Foles is certainly no Brees, he does have highly-targeted receivers who can get into space. Nelson Agholor had a 29% target share with his 10 targets, Zach Ertz had a 29% target share with his 10 targets, and both guys should find some usage this week. Mike Wallace was also targeted very deep on the three pass attempts that went his way with 36 air yards per target and I’ll almost definitely have some exposure to him in the hopes that he can get deep at low ownership.

Tampa was the surprise team of Week 1 with their upset of New Orleans and the offense showed some really positive and non-fluky signs of success. Unfortunately the matchup with the Eagles should be much less charitable. Even without a matchup versus the stingy Eagles, Ryan Fitzpatrick’s unbelievable efficiency would be hard to duplicate given that his three top receivers all caught every single one of their targets. Fitzpatrick is cheap enough to perhaps be worth a contrarian look but the matchup with the Eagles defense mitigates what might be some genuine belief in this Bucs offensive attack. DeSean Jackson will need deep plays to be useful and it’s hard to imagine the Eagles being defensively daft enough to allow him to get away with that. Mike Evans may end up being the beneficiary, particularly after the Eagles let Julio Jones grab 14 out of his 19 targets in the season opener. Peyton Barber did get 19 rushes in Week 1 despite some poor results so if you think Tampa can keep it close, he may have more use than he did to start the year. But overall, I’d imagine I won’t have much exposure to this Tampa side even if I do think they may have modest amounts of success.

Indianapolis Colts (19.8 implied points) at Washington Redskins (25.8 implied points)

The good: Andrew Luck returned and threw 53 freaking passes without his arm falling off. Big win for the Colts. The bad: They get a Redskins D who either was the beneficiary of one of the worst offensive performances of the week (you’re lucky the Lions bailed you out, Cards) or might be surprisingly feisty this year. The low implied total seems to indicate that Vegas believes the latter. But one place the Colts could defy Vegas’s doubts is through the run game, a place where the Redskins gave up 4.5 yards per rush (after giving up 4.6 in 2017) and a few first down dashes before the Cardinals inexplicably abandoned the run. Marlon Mack is back in practice and if he’s named the starter, he would definitely be an interesting play despite the other backs likely having a share. Otherwise, Jordan Wilkins paced the team in RB snaps and carries while Nyheim Hines saw a ton of targets in the pass game and one may have some usefulness given their prices. TY Hilton saw 11 targets from Luck and while that number should decrease given the likelihood of Luck throwing less passes, Hilton getting more involved in the short passing game and picking up three red zone targets instead of just deep bombs should be a net benefit for him overall. Ryan Grant too should see a slight decrease from his 9 targets but a role as Luck’s safety valve with a stellar catch rate would be a good asset to him. Jack Doyle and Eric Ebron saw 2 and 1 red zone targets respectively and it seems like there may be a role for both in the offense though, again, not quite the same volume every week. It really all depends on this Redskins defense; if it’s not as good as it looked, the Colts attack may have some interesting places to provide value. If the Washington D is as currently advertised, it may be a problematic day for Luck and the Colts.

Washington should have much easier sledding versus a Colts D that let the Bengals do whatever they wanted in Week 1. If Adrian Peterson continues his insane 28-touch workload, he’s a very viable play at his price. Chris Thompson will also likely be viable every week given his consistent role in the passing game after he led the team in targets and completions versus the Cardinals. Thompson and Jordan Reed both got two red zone targets, the only players targeted in that area, and the Redskins’ dedication to getting Thompson the ball in different ways – as well as his skill in breaking them with almost 10 yards after the catch per completion – will only bode well for Thompson this year. Alex Smith continued to be as accurate as he was on the Chiefs but with much less downfield play, just 4 intended air yards per target. Smith also threw the ball for -5.1 air yards to the sticks, an NFL Next Gen stat that calculates how far QBs are throwing the ball relative to the first down markers, which would be the least downfield performance of Week 1. This means room for Smith’s guys to make plays and some degree of mitigated risk with Smith at the expense of somewhat limited yardage upside. The receiving attack is also a bit too spread out with Jamison Crowder, Paul Richardson, Josh Doctson, and Jordan Reed all getting under six targets. I’m cool with the running game here and there will certainly be some touchdowns scored at the Colts’ expense but there may not enough volume to feel terribly confident.

Cleveland Browns (20.5 implied points) at New Orleans Saints (29.3 implied points)

The Browns are off to their best start since 2004 with their 0-0-1 record, big time effort by Cleveland. And this matchup should see the Browns continue to show at least some degree of competence going up against a Saints team who showed precious little defensively in Week 1. Their sample will be slightly overtime inflated but Jarvis Landry continued to be the target monster he’s been in Miami, picking up 16 targets and a 38% target share. More importantly, Landry got deeper on these routes than he did on his last team, picking up 13.9 air yards per target, around double what he got last year. Landry was priced up a bit but he’s in a fantastic spot in a game that may very well become a track meet. Tyrod Taylor threw the ball 40 times in the Browns’ first game and even if he continues to be inaccurate and highly sacked, he still will put the ball in play enough for Landry to do some damage. Josh Gordon picked up 69% of the offensive snaps but only three targets in Week 1. Despite that, the 43 air yards per target he put up were the highest in the NFL. The Saints let Ryan Fitzpatrick beat them deep over and over again last time out and the passing attack here led by Taylor seems very appealing. David Njoku picked up 7 targets versus the Steelers and he too makes an interesting play in the matchup, albeit less so than Landry and Gordon. Carlos Hyde took the lion’s share of the rushing attack with 22 carries while Duke Johnson picked up 6 targets in the pass game. One of these guys may be useful this week and I’d likely favor Hyde for the volume. The passing game is where it’s at but Hyde’s price for that volume plus some red zone carries is super interesting.

The Saints were a must-own fantasy team in Week 1 and they have a lot going for them this week as well. The Cleveland defense allowed the Steelers to run a ton of plays and we also saw how they caved under the sheer volume of James Conner’s role. Alvin Kamara being fed any sort of volume in the run game would be a huge risk for a Browns run D that looked far leakier versus Pittsburgh than it did all of last season. Kamara also picked up 12 targets in the passing game and even though his 17 touches per game are worrisome at that price, Kamara’s explosiveness and the Saints’ ability to get him the ball in space will still make him a tough fade:

Also a tough fade might be Michael Thomas and his 19-target, 39% target share. Thomas paced the team in targets by a wide margin, the most in the league along with Julio Jones, and there’s no reason to think the Browns will stop that. The one thing the Browns did well defensively last week was get to the quarterback and create turnovers so there may be some risk for Drew Brees but I’m more inclined to think this game shoots out and both sides get theirs at high volume with two secondaries who might not be able to stop a broken down truck.

Kansas City Chiefs (24 implied points) at Pittsburgh Steelers (28 implied points)

The Chiefs threw the ball all over the field versus the Chargers with new starter Pat Mahomes throwing a score on 15% of his passes. This week will be a bigger test for Mahomes with a Steelers D who got to the QB on 15% of his dropbacks versus Cleveland (admittedly Tyrod Taylor is a bit sack prone) and also got to QBs 10.1% of the time last season. Mahomes targeted receivers downfield as much as any QB in Week 1 with 12.7 air yards per attempt and it may be tough for him to get the time needed for those plays to develop with the pressure Pittsburgh can bring. Kareem Hunt got only 16 carries, was targeted only once in the pass game, and logged only 71% of the offensive snaps. The signs are not great for him being the bellcow back he was last year. With a 33% target share, 9 targets a game at 17.3 air yards per target, and an elite 10.1 yards after the catch, Tyreek Hill is going to be a tough fade in any situation. The Steelers’ ability to bring pressure should mitigate some of Hill’s opportunities but I’m not one to count him out with his gamebreaking ability. Travis Kelce only picked up six targets in Week 1 and I’m not expecting him to do much more after the Steelers limited TE production by 34.6% last season via DVOA. Sammy Watkins may be an interesting consideration given the shorter routes he ran for the Chiefs but he’d need way more than the five targets he got in Week 1. I’m a little concerned about the Chiefs offense this week but it’s really more of a litmus test; it wouldn’t surprise me to see Mahomes and Hill go nuts again but the matchup is going to challenge them more than the banged up Chargers D did.

The Steelers should be able to get their offense on track going against a Kansas City defense who gave up an astronomical 541 yards in Week 1. They were bad last year and arguably got worse this offseason and it really showed on the field. Everyone on the Steelers is playable as a result. James Conner getting 30+ touches in this matchup would be the easiest play of the week, ditto Antonio Brown getting 10+ targets. Juju Smith-Schuster turned just 5 catches into over 100 yards versus the Browns and he should be able to do the same again. And Ben Roethlisberger will see far less pressure with a Kansas City team who hasn’t generated many sacks last week or last season. Hell I could even play some Jesse James if Vance McDonald is inactive again. This is a spot where the Steelers will need points to protect themselves against the volatile Chiefs attack and a defense which will have no issues giving them up in spades. I love this matchup for Pittsburgh.

Miami Dolphins (20.5 implied points) at New York Jets (23.5 implied points)

The Jets defense looked like world beaters in their Monday night drubbing of Matt Stafford and the Lions but I’m inclined to think that was an aberration. The Jets got good pressure but ultimately picked up no sacks and forced no fumbles, mostly taking advantage of Stafford’s telegraphed reads and low effort routes. Miami may not be the team to highlight any of the Jets’ flaws with their offensive group as no one here inspires a ton of confidence. Ryan Tannehill seems unlikely to see the volume needed to put together a big day but that doesn’t necessarily hamper Kenny Stills, a player who didn’t see a target boost with the departure of Jarvis Landry but did continue to get targeted deep downfield while also showing some elite yard after the catch ability. The volume isn’t likely to be there for Danny Amendola or Albert Wilson and Mike Gesicki only saw 34% of the team snaps…there’s not much to fall in love with here.

Sam Darnold did a good job in his first game starting in the NFL other than an opening drive interception turned into a touchdown. He’s unlikely to see the number of pass attempts needed to have elite fantasy value but his price may be appealing in limited doses. With 10 targets unquestioned apple of Darnold’s eye in Week 1 was Quincy Enunwa, a player who (when healthy) has been a highly targeted player who converts them into yards at a great success rate. Enunwa doesn’t have the home run potential Robby Anderson does but he’ll get more than the one target for one 40-yard touchdown than Anderson may get until he develops more chemistry with Darnold. The tight end situation was an unknown heading into the season opener and while Neal Sterling did his best with his snaps, there’s nothing much of use here despite the usual synergy between a young QB and his tight end. Bilal Powell and Isaiah Crowell had an even split of carries, 12 to 10, with two targets for Powell compared to zero for Crowell. I’d think Powell has more upside, particularly in games where the Jets trail, but Crowell should get the goal line work. Your guess is as good as mine as to who will break out week to week.

Carolina Panthers (19.3 implied points) at Atlanta Falcons (25.3 implied points)

Despite all the talk about an increased workload, Christian McCaffrey ended up with just 16 touches in Week 1, a fine volume but not necessarily enough to set the world on fire. That said, his 5 yards per rush were very solid against a mostly game Cowboys defense and his role does seem secure, likely even more so with Greg Olsen sidelined yet again. Devin Funchess also saw a boost with Olsen out last season and stands to gain some targets as a result of another inactive stint for him. Olsen’s replacement Ian Thomas did notch a red zone target in Week 1 and he may have a few more looks as a result of Olsen’s absence given the importance of the tight end role in that offense. You certainly can’t project him for Olsen’s full share of targets but a taste of them could yield some results. Cam Newton has the same upside he always has and his 13 rushes in Week 1, three of which in the red zone, certainly bode well for his ability to provide rushing touchdowns. But I’m not sold on his ability to get the pass game going versus Atlanta so it’s hard for me to justify paying his price knowing the ceiling of some of the guys cheaper than him.

Matt Ryan and his 49% completion rate in Week 1 could be the result of the stout Super Bowl champion Eagles defense or it could be that Ryan simply didn’t have it despite 43 pass attempts:

https://twitter.com/TomLikeNFL/status/1037986384689197056

I don’t think Matt Ryan is cooked by any stretch but his inability to execute in the opener, particularly after taking a hit that broke his knee brace, was a bit troubling. The volume of the passing game should be enough most weeks for Ryan to be useful but this matchup versus a Panthers D who got to Dak Prescott on 17.1% of his pass attempts in Week 1 may cause even more problems for Ryan than the Eagles did. Devonta Freeman is expected to be active despite some knee problems and it looked pretty close to a straight share with Tevin Coleman other than his injury, at least in the rushing game. Freeman picked up five targets in the limited run of snaps that he played before his injury and should continue to get the larger share through the air. Julio Jones gets the biggest share though with a whopping 19 targets and a 44% target share in Week 1. Those numbers should come down a little but the opportunity and the team’s dedication to getting him the ball in the end zone (three red zone targets versus Philadelphia) should pay dividends despite how incompetent Steve Sarkisian’s playcalling may be.

LA Chargers (25 implied points) at Buffalo Bills (18 implied points)

Normally a West Coast team heading east for an early game would get a bit of a downgrade accounted for by Vegas but there’s still a lot to love here for the Chargers to get back on track after a deflating “home” loss versus Kansas City. Despite their flaws overall, the Chargers generated 541 yards of offense in the matchup and Buffalo certainly shouldn’t be able to offer much more resistance than the Chiefs did. Melvin Gordon should be a primary beneficiary if he gets anywhere near the 24 touches he got in Week 1 versus the Bills. The Bills were dreadful versus the run and pass versus Baltimore and Gordon’s team-high 13 targets show a new level of involvement in the offensive attack that make him as elite as any play at the RB position. Keenan Allen continues to be a target monster in his own right as he claimed 12 targets of his own. I’m a little concerned, particularly after The Great Alex Collins Failure, that the Chargers run away with the game too easily and it deprives Allen or even Gordon of some of the looks they would normally get but it’s hard to imagine them not being contributors to the game getting out of hand. Mike Williams received six targets at a very deep 14.7 air yards per target and his 83% catch rate should help him seize some more looks from the drop happy Tyrell Williams and Travis Benjamin. Any of these guys can break a bomb from Philip Rivers and they also might drop them over and over again as Williams and Benjamin did. I’d likely favor Mike Williams after Allen but any of these guys getting into the end zone from deep wouldn’t shock me. Ditto Austin Ekeler, a guy who can turn five targets and five rushes into gold. Obviously with this much love for all these guys I definitely have some for Rivers as well. The price is a little high for a possible blowout but Rivers throwing for four or five scores would not be surprising at all.

For the Bills, the only player I’m considering is the Chargers defense. In fact, I would say they’re the best play of the week, even after getting run off the field by Kansas City. The Chargers played better outside of Los Angeles last year, likely due to their homefield non-advantage, and a matchup with rookie starter Josh Allen should play into their hands even without the still-injured Joey Bosa. One concern is that Allen did show a tendency to throw it deep in his relief of Nathan Peterman, throwing for 15.4 air yards per target, most out of the quarterbacks to play in Week 1. It’ll likely mean more interceptions but it’s not impossible to imagine a Kelvin Benjamin turning the eight targets and 24.4 air yards per he got versus the Ravens into something versus a Chargers D that made Pat Mahomes look like Brett Favre reincarnate.

Houston Texans (23.5 implied points) at Tennessee Titans (21.5 implied points)

The Tennessee defense did not show much growth under new head coach Mike Vrabel and D.C. Dean Pees, mostly getting strafed by Ryan Tannehill en route to a weather-delayed loss in Miami. Their lack of a pass rush should be an asset versus a Texans offensive line who left DeShaun Watson scrambling for his life far too often versus the Patriots. Watson likes to throw the ball downfield and the Titans allowed Tannehill to accomplish that with some regularity, something that may bode well for Watson and the passing attack getting back on track. DeAndre Hopkins should see the main benefit of that, particularly if the Titans’ 197% production boost to WR 1 via DVOA (yes you read that correctly, one hundred and ninety seven percent production boost) can’t be improved upon. A healthy Will Fuller would also be a great asset if he’s active on Sunday given his ability to stretch the defense. If he’s ruled out again somehow, Bruce Ellington would gain some value as the replacement deep ball threat. Ryan Griffin picked up five targets as the new tight end replacing the retired CJ Fiedorowicz and caught none of them. Three of his targets were in the red zone, noteworthy compared to two each for Hopkins and Ellington. Lastly, I wouldn’t sleep on Lamar Miller; Miller’s got a very solid price and his 4.9 yards per rush would bode well for him in a matchup versus a likely less well-coached Dolphins group. 20 rushing attempts and a handful of targets are nothing to sneeze at in a winnable matchup.

Marcus Mariota will be available for the Titans on Sunday and that’s probably good news despite how awful he looked in Week 1. It’s a new offense and coordinator for Mariota and while I think this Houston defense may give him some trouble, he can’t be as bad as he seemed versus Miami. With Rishard Matthews hampered by injury and limited to 52% of the snaps, Corey Davis took advantage with 14 targets, a 35% target share…and a 43% catch rate. He can’t always be that bad and the volume is something to note. Dion Lewis picked up 71% of the snaps compared to Derrick Henry’s 29% and outtouched the big back 21-11. Lewis is very usable after the Texans looked vulnerable versus Rex Burkhead in the run game and he’s got a ton of upside given the targets Delanie Walker’s season-long injury will leave behind. Walker will also free up additional tight end snaps for Jonnu Smith and Luke Stocker and given the frequent usage of two-tight end sets in Week 1, both should see the field. Stocker showed more deep ball ability versus the Dolphins but I don’t see either getting the usage Walker did in the offense.

Detroit Lions (21 implied points) at San Francisco 49ers (27 implied points)

There are already reports of discord in Detroit with players allegedly bristling due to Matt Patricia’s rules and amount of work and, if that is the case, boy was it evident during Monday night’s drubbing at the hands of the Jets. There is likely a bit of a culture change going on here but also the very real possibility that Matt Patricia is not going to be a good head coach, shocking giving how the defensive units he helmed in New England were also amongst the worst in the league. San Francisco’s secondary showed some signs of improvement from last season in Week 1 versus Minnesota but Matt Stafford should be able to find some holes in the defense if he’s anything closer to his usual performance than what he and the Lions offense brought versus the Jets. Stafford put up 46 passes in the blowout despite yielding part of the fourth quarter run to backup Matt Cassel and that sort of volume has to help someone out. Golden Tate and Kenny Golladay picked up a hearty 15 and 12 targets respectively and Golladay in particular seemed to soak up all of the targets that Eric Ebron’s departure left behind:

Golladay is at a good price and should be in consideration in the hopes he can keep up that kind of volume. Marvin Jones and Stafford were unable to connect on a few acrobatic deep balls and, as has been the case in previous years, Jones has the home run potential in this offense even if his target share is less secure. San Francisco mostly limited deep balls versus Kirk Cousins but Jones can break out in almost any matchup if he can secure the ball. LeGarrette Blount has been full go at practice and should return to the lineup but I’m not sold on the impact of anyone in the Detroit run game as currently constructed. Kerryon Johnson looked the best, Theo Riddick gained the most snaps as a result of Blount’s injury and the blowout requiring more passing downs (and despite that he only got four targets)…I’m just not sold here. The passing game? Sure. The run game has to show me some more even if one of the guys, likely Riddick, does have some upside potential.

The Lions defense allowed Sam Darnold to complete over 75% of his passes and score on 50% of the Jets’ offensive drives, a situation that should be a real get well spot for a Niners offense who was professionally handled by the Vikings. The passing attack with a lower priced Jimmy Garoppolo should be appealing here given Garoppolo’s ability and how the Lions seem unlikely to right their ship defensively so fast. Marquise Goodwin is questionable with the thigh injury he sustained in Week 1 so the majority of the targets should go to Pierre Garcon (7 targets) and George Kittle (9 targets) with Kittle being extra appealing given the rapport he and Garoppolo have shown. Dante Pettis also flashed some deep ball vibes with Garoppolo as he picked up six targets and he should unequivocally get a boost if Goodwin is ruled out. Garcon may improve too with more time on the field with Garoppolo after missing most of his starting stint last season; Garcon’s two catches weren’t great but the fact that he was being targeted 16.9 yards downfield on his seven targets does mean some upside for him, particularly with two red zone targets as part of that entree. The running back situation may also have some value with an even carry split for Alfred Morris and Matt Brieda. Brieda got more work in the passing game but Morris’s five red zone carries are one of the tops in the NFL and it seems likely he’ll get more chances to cash it in this time around.

Arizona Cardinals (16 implied points) at LA Rams (29 implied points)

Arizona looked like one of the worst teams to take the field in every aspect of the game in Week 1 and there isn’t much to love here versus a Rams D who looks even more opportunistic with takeaways than they were last season. Sam Bradford did nothing of consequence versus the Redskins and the offense looked nowhere near as explosive as it did during Bruce Arians’ stewardship. New offensive coordinator Mike McCoy has quite frankly not been good at that job since he lost his head coaching role in San Diego and I would anticipate more struggles and ultimately low risk throws for Arizona this year. David Johnson picked up only 14 touches in the form of 9 rushes and 9 targets and they’ll need to feed him the ball more. But the rest of the offense and this matchup drags down the opportunity for him despite an appealing price. Larry Fitzgerald continued to be an ageless target monster, pulling down 7 out of 10 of the passes Bradford threw his way at a reasonable 9 air yards per target. You could talk me into a taste of Johnson or Fitzgerald as a low owned flyer but I can’t buy into this Cardinals team much with this Vegas total in this matchup.

Todd Gurley continued his campaign of terror versus Oakland, picking up the exact same 23 touches in the game that he averaged per game last season. The passing game was also a very even distribution with Brandin Cooks, Cooper Kupp, and Robert Woods garnering 8, 9, and 9 targets respectively. Kupp got the majority of the red zone love with three targets but Woods and Gurley still picked up two each while Cooks also picked up one of his own. It would not shock me to see literally all of these guys have some fantasy value this week. They all do different things and the Rams have shown last year that they will run up the points on a team if the opportunity presents itself. If I had to rank all the options it would likely be Gurley -> Kupp -> Cook -> Woods, the wide receivers mostly a reflection of their prices than their roles but honestly I could see playing all of these guys this week with very little reservation versus the Cardinals’ new zone defense that showed absolutely no competence versus Alex Smith and Washington.

New England Patriots (23 implied points) at Jacksonville Jaguars (22 implied points)

A playoff-caliber matchup in the late game window of Week 2 and I anticipate staying the hell away from it. Jacksonville’s defense didn’t yield the same results it did last season in Week 1 versus the Giants, largely due to some big plays being broken by elite athletes like Saquon Barkley than anything they did wrong. The Giants primarily subsisted on short throws with Eli Manning throwing for just 6.6 air yards per attempt en route to a respectable 62% completion rate and a similar approach will likely be the strategy by the Patriots and Tom Brady. Phillip Dorsett should see a lot of targets before the sticks designed to keep the Jags’ pass rush at bay and at his price, that is a little interesting. And Rob Gronkowski can be viable in any matchup but paying up for him at the position versus what should be a difficult defensive situation is not my ideal. I’m mostly inclined to look elsewhere even if the Pats O can put something together given how many games here may end up blown wide open. Rex Burkhead is in the concussion protocol and his absence would throw the running game into disarray, a bummer since the Jags are at their most beatable on the ground.

The Pats’ defense did look resurgent without the metaphorical (and possibly literal given his appearance) stink of Matt Patricia around but they were still mostly outmanned in the ground game. Leonard Fournette is currently sitting out of practice with his hamstring injury and if he’s out, TJ Yeldon should immediately get some interest. Yeldon gets more work in the pass game and has shown comparable yard per rush ability last season when filling in for Fournette. No one really asserted themselves in the pass game in Week 1, a bit of a surprise to me given what Keelan Cole flashed as the lead dog last season. The Giants D under new coordinator James Bettcher brought some looks at Blake Bortles that he wasn’t ready for so I’m not sure it’s a total condemnation of the pass attack but I would expect the Patriots to lean heavily on what worked to stymy Bortles in Week 1. I think the Patriots structurally solved some of their defensive issues that made them highly beatable in the pass game last season so I’m comfortable with just the rushing attack in the matchup, particularly if Yeldon is the starter at a nice discount.

Oakland Raiders (19.8 implied points) at Denver Broncos (25.8 implied points)

Oakland fought about as valiantly as they could in their season opener at home versus the Rams but ultimately this team is not talented enough right now to beat an upper echelon defense. But they’ve got to try and the way they did that in Week 1 was mostly through Jared Cook, a player targeted 12 times versus Los Angeles. The Broncos have also shown holes defending the tight end, giving up a 101.3% boost to the position according to DVOA after giving up a 19.8% one last season. They should gameplan to stop Cook but at any sort of volume he remains an appealing option to me given the Raiders’ disposition towards low risk passes that use Cook’s athleticism and the fact that the Raiders will need to get the ball out fast to avoid sacks. Everything else here strikes me as a stay away; Amari Cooper may improve this year but he won’t get there if they don’t force the ball to him more than the three targets he got versus LA. Jalen Richard is one guy to keep an eye on; it may be a function of the deficit versus LA but he notched 50% of the snaps, the same as Marshawn Lynch and Doug Martin combined. He was targeted 11 times on those snaps and the 14 touches he received at his price could be intriguing in another game the Raiders may find themselves behind in quickly.

Denver’s pass attack looked resurgent versus Seattle and there’s no reason to think the Raiders will do much more to inhibit Case Keenum and co. The Raiders pass defense was more competent than it seemed they would be but it’s hard to say how much of it was being fired up in a season opener at home. The Broncos’ passing game, flowing through Emmanuel Sanders’ 11 targets and Demaryius Thomas’s 10 targets, looked like a dynamite situation where Keenum threw exactly where he needed to. Keenum’s approach was evidenced most by his 0.9 air yards to the sticks on NFL Next Gen Stats, a stat where a number closer to 0 means his pass attempts getting right at the first down markers. This is an offense not designed to blow out away downfield but to move the ball consistently on every drive and that could be a death by 1,000 cuts for Oakland’s defense. Philip Lindsay and Royce Freeman were both involved in the run game in an equal timeshare while Lindsay showed more in the passing game, taking three targets and turning them into two catches and 31 yards receiving. This Oakland team can be beaten a variety of ways so pick your poison.

And there we have it, another big slate in the books. Follow me on Twitter @ChrisSpags to catch some of my brain dumps on there during the games and to find out when we go live before lock before the games on Sunday morning, make sure to use promo code SLANTANDGO to get a free-week trial to Awesemo Premium, and good luck out there this week as football continues to win back our hearts and minds.

Author
Chris Spags is the senior director of editorial strategy at Awesemo.com and contributes to the site's NBA, NFL, and MLB coverage as a writer and host of video content. Chris's content background from sites like Guyism, Uproxx, and Barstool Sports allows him to bring a unique spin to the world of daily fantasy sports analysis. Chris writes regular columns with NBA and NFL analysis as well as his inimitable style and his 'Four Corners' videos for basketball, baseball, and football DFS are the primary short form content offering on Awesemo's YouTube channel. You can find him on almost any given night providing analysis right up to slate lock on Awesemo's flagship Live Before Lock livestreams or on Twitter @ChrisSpags. You can contact Chris by emailing [email protected].

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