We have a healthy 10-game slate tonight (3/3/20) from which to glean our NHL DFS picks and loads of bargains to choose from on DraftKings and FanDuel, including a well-priced Mitch Marner. As well, down below you’ll find some of my top stacking options for the slate.
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NHL DFS Picks: Center
Nick Bjugstad (PIT vs. OTT): DraftKings – $3,000; FanDuel – $3,000
The Penguins could be getting some reinforcements tonight from the injured list, and one of them will be Nick Bjugstad. He’s going to get a cushy slotting on the second line with Evgeni Malkin and Bryan Rust, one of the top-scoring duos in the league this year: this season, with Malkin/Rust on the ice, the Penguins have an expected goals rate over 3.00 at 5-on-5, and actual goals rate approaching 4.00, both being excellent marks. Bjugstad walking into that situation is great for him.
Pittsburgh is at home to a team that was a big-time seller at the trade deadline. The biggest losses being top-line centre JG Pageau and second-pair defenseman Dylan DeMelo. They aren’t a horrific team, but a rebuild roster can only sustain so many losses.
The big reason for using Bjugstad is obviously his price, coming it at less than half the price of either line mate. He doesn’t have the same upside because of a lack of PP minutes, but at his price, he doesn’t need significant upside to be useful tonight. He’s fine to use as a salary-relief one-off in either tournaments or cash games.
Ryan O’Reilly (STL at NYR): DraftKings – $5,100; FanDuel – $6,800
The Rangers will be without Chris Kreider tonight and that will hurt their top line, the expected matchup for O’Reilly and his line mates. Without him on the top line with Zibanejad-Buchnevich, the line has allowed 2.7 expected goals against and 2.6 actual goals against, compared to 2.1 and 2.0 with him on the line. That is a big drop in defensive impact, and that bodes very well for O’Reilly and the Blues tonight.
It’s kind of a weird year for St. Louis by their metrics. They have seven forwards with at least 700 minutes at 5-on-5, and the highest expected goals rate is 2.22, belonging to Ivan Barbashev. But in terms of actual goals scored, 2.22 is the lowest among those forwards, with three of them (including O’Reilly) sitting at least 2.8. Expected goals models aren’t perfect (predictive models are flawed by nature) and there are some things they don’t accurately capture. There may be something here with St. Louis, but as long as they keep scoring as they have, it doesn’t matter too much for our purposes.
New York is one of the most penalized teams in the NHL and St. Louis has one of the better power plays in the league. O’Reilly is also much cheaper on DK than on FD, which is another reason he appears on this list.
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NHL DFS Picks: Winger
Victor Olofsson (BUF at WPG): DraftKings – $5,100; FanDuel – $6,400
Victor Olofsson will be returning to the lineup for Buffalo and this is the perfect time for him. On the year, Olofsson has 11 PP goals, and is sixth in the league in goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-4 (minimum of 100 minutes). He’s truly been one of the prolific goal scorers on the power play this season.
That’s good news for Olofsson and the Sabres, as they visit a Winnipeg team that is bottom-5 in the league on the penalty kill by every relevant metric. What works against the Sabres here is that the Jets don’t take a lot of penalties; in fact, they take the second-fewest in the league. But they’re so bad on the PK that despite being 30th in times short-handed, they’re 14th in goals against.
One reason for using Olofsson tonight is that like Ryan O’Reilly, he’s much cheaper on DK, even when factoring the salary cap differences between the two sites. Though the PP is the big reason for using him tonight, the Jets, in general, are a horrific defensive team, ranking 29th by expected goals against this year. He’s one of my favourite NHL DFS picks on the DK slate.
Mitch Marner (TOR at SJ): DraftKings – $7,200; FanDuel – $7,300
Going into San Jose, the top line for the Leafs should face off against the top line of the Sharks, that being the trio of Labanc-Thornton-Meier. That trio has been awful defensively this year to the tune of 2.7 expected goals against. What makes it worse is that San Jose has the worst goaltending duo in the NHL, so the line’s actual goals against mark is north of 4.00, which is simply pitiful. A porous defensive line and porous goaltending is a prime situation for Marner and his line mates.
Toronto’s top line has been superlative this year. The threesome of Marner-Matthews-Hyman has an expected goals rate north of 3.00 and an actual goals rate north of 4.00, both being elite marks. The one drawback is Toronto doesn’t draw a lot of penalties, but San Jose is one of the five most-penalized teams in the league this year. Hopefully Toronto can get a few power plays out of this.
That drawback is what should make people reticent about using Marner in cash games. He’s a solid one-off option for tournaments, given the matchup, and is also fine to use with his line mates as part of a stack for tournaments.
NHL DFS Picks: Defense
Mikhail Sergachev (TB vs. BOS): DraftKings – $4,500; FanDuel – $4,400
Facing off against Boston is far from an ideal matchup. On the year, they have the fewest goals against per 60 minutes at 5-on-5, and are fourth in goals against on the penalty kill. They’re an excellent defensive team with very good goaltending.
The reason for using Sergachev tonight is that he has been moved to the top PP unit, with Victor Hedman being bumped down to the second unit. They’re without Steven Stamkos, but there is still more than enough talent between Brayden Point, Nikita Kucherov, and Anthony Cirelli to get the job done.
I very much would understand people wanting to avoid the Bruins, but it’s hard to completely pass on a good puck-moving defenseman getting PP1 minutes at home and priced where he is on this team. For those going MME tonight, it shouldn’t take a lot of exposure to be above the market on Sergachev.
Ryan Pulock (NYI vs. MTL): DraftKings – $5,300; FanDuel – $4,900
One thing about Ryan Pulock is his stability; he has four games this year with fewer than 20 minutes in TOI, and just one since October. That kind of reliability in his price range is nice to have. He’s also one of the defensemen capable of the DK combo meal (five shots and three blocks in the same game), as he has 10/62 contests with at least five shots and 22/62 with at least three shot blocks. He’s averaging over two blocks per game on the season and faces a Montreal team that is second in shot rate in the league since New Year’s Eve.
Relative to other defensemen, Pulock is a bit cheaper on FD which makes the lack of a three-block bonus palatable there. He also gets secondary PP minutes, and the Montreal PK is about league average over their last 25 games. He’s fine as a one-off in all formats tonight.
Top Stack Options
St. Louis top line of Schenn-Schwartz-O’Reilly
As mentioned in the section on O’Reilly, this is a very good matchup for the top line with Chris Kreider missing from the lineup. The Rangers also take a lot of penalties and the Blues’ top trio are all on the same PP unit together. They’re also very reasonably priced across the industry, which makes it easier to fit in expensive defensemen, even one such as Alex Pietrangelo, another solid NHL DFS pick for this night.
Anaheim second line of Henrique-Rakell-Silfverberg
Chicago has been using the top-line duo of Toews-Kubalik against the second and third lines from the opposition, and that means a matchup against Anaheim’s second line tonight. The Chicago top line has been atrocious this year, with an expected goals against rate over 3.00 and an actual goals against rate over 5.00. They also lost their starting goaltender in Robin Lehner via trade. Anaheim has been real bad this year, but this is a very good matchup for three talented players that have a very high goal rate this year.
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