Friday, Sept. 4, has a four-game early slate made up of doubleheader games. Then we get a nice nine-game main slate DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo and SuperDraft. Before you lock in your MLB DFS lineups and MLB DFS picks, make sure to check out check out Awesemo’s DFS baseball MLB rankings and projections.
For the Friday MLB DFS Early Bird Show click HERE.
Early-Slate MLB DFS Picks
Atlanta Braves vs. RHP Austin Voth – 4.5 implied runs
Keep in mind the four early games are all the lead-in games of Friday’s doubleheaders. With everyone on an even playing field for innings, this will be fun. There are quite a few pitchers we can target with Zack Godley, Alex Cobb, Tommy Milone and Steven Brault. However, I think Voth is the first candidate for our full stacks.
This season Voth has made six starts, lasting just 23.2 innings. The 10 walks are almost as concerning as the seven home runs. For his career against 176 same-handed hitters, he has allowed a 2.06 HR/9, with a .228 ISO. Against 165 lefties it has been a little better with a 1.25 HR/9, but the .198 ISO is alarming. While his nearly 8.00 ERA is bad, his 5.56 projected ERA is not good.
The Braves have been a top-three offense against right-handed pitching this season. Our primary targets will of course be Freddie Freeman, Marcell Ozuna and Nick Markakis. Ronald Acuna Jr. has been dealing with a hamstring issue, but should be back in the mix after getting a two-day respite. Adam Duvall and Austin Riley are cheap power options who we can turn to for differentiation.
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Main-Slate MLB DFS Picks
New York Mets vs. RHP Jake Arrieta – 4.9 implied runs
While Arrieta has done a serviceable job against righties, lefties are his Kryptonite. In his last 648 matchups versus opposite-handed hitters, he has allowed a 1.70 HR/9 with a .201 ISO and a 10.0% walk rate. The Mets should have five or six batters swinging the stick from the left side of the plate on Friday.
Michael Conforto and Brandon Nimmo are usually 1-2 at the top of the order when New York faces a right-handed hurler. They both have solid pop and reasonable plate discipline. One of Dominic Smith and Jeff McNeil will be in the top four spots, with the other likely batting sixth. Over the last two-plus seasons, that pair has gotten on base over 36% of the time against righties. Finally, 37-year old veteran Robinson Cano is still getting it done, and his price point is likely to keep the masses at bay.
Evening-Slate MLB DFS Picks
Chicago White Sox at RHP Brady Singer – 5.4 implied runs
The youngster Singer has been hanging in there this season over seven starts with 31 strikeouts in 34.2 innings. Unfortunately, he is not doing himself any favors with eight home runs allowed. This is the rookie’s first action above double-A, though he did have three solid seasons with the Florida Gators against SEC competition.
The White Sox are better against southpaws, but they do not have a single easy out in their lineup. Eloy Jimenez, Yoan Moncada, Yasmani Grandal, Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Abreu all have .200+ ISOs over the last two seasons against right-handed pitchers. We can find some differentiation with the bottom third of the order with discount dandies Nomar Mazara and Nick Madrigal. Rookie Luis Robert is priced up across the board, and that should keep his popularity in check.
Late-Slate MLB DFS Picks
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. RHP Antonio Senzatela – 5.7 implied runs
The Rockies are returning to the scene of the crime. Two starts ago on Aug. 23, Senzatela allowed a whopping four home runs in Chavez Ravine. While he has posted just shy of a 50% ground ball rate over his last 260 innings, he allows a fair amount of hard contact. The sites have all done a good job with the pricing on Mookie Betts, Max Muncy, Corey Seager and Cody Bellinger. However, we can use the savings available with Joc Pederson, A.J. Pollock and Edwin Rios to average down the cost of our stack.
As always, you can reach out to me in Awesemo.com Premium Slack or on Twitter @EMacDFS if you have any questions or want to discuss anything MLB DFS related.
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