Saturday, Sept. 5, has a healthy 11-game main slate on DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo and SuperDraft. Before you lock in your MLB DFS lineups and MLB DFS picks, make sure to check out check out Awesemo’s DFS baseball MLB rankings and projections.
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Early-Slate MLB DFS Picks
Oakland Athletics vs. RHP Chris Paddack – 4.4 implied runs
While I like the idea of targeting against 39-year old RHP Adam Wainwright who through a complete game last Sunday on his birthday, that game is only on DraftKings. The reason I am good with the Cubbies in a 7 inning game is that Waino threw 122 pitches in his last start which is a heavy workload.
A lot of gamers may be hesitant to target against Paddack who has been decent for the Padres. The young right-handed is also someone that we have rolled with as our SP2 several times this season. The A’s were on the shelf for most of last week due to a positive Covid-19 test. My how quickly gamers have forgotten about their power-laden roster.
In three of his last five starts, Paddack has allowed multiple home runs and he would be on pace to allow a record 50+ if this were a normal 162 games season. Over his last 391 righty/lefty matchups Paddack has allowed a 1.69 HR/9, 43.1% hard hit rate and a .205 ISO. Same-handed batsmen have found success as well with a 1.55 HR/9 rate and a 44.1% hard hit rate.
Recent acquisition Tommy La Stella and slugger Matt Olson will be the lefties we can target. Matt Chapman and Ramon Laureano both have a .220+ ISO in righty/righty matchups over the last two plus seasons. Utilize Mark Canha, Stephen Piscotty and catcher Sean Murphy for differentiation on the short slate.
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Main-Slate MLB DFS Picks
Chicago White Sox at LHP Kris Bubic – 5.8 implied runs
It is a day ending in y, which of course means that the White Sox are in play. With a trio of top-shelf pitchers in Lucas Giolito, Kenta Maeda and Gerrit Cole likely to garner heavy interest, gamers are not going to have much salary cap flexibility left over for the spendy Chicago hitters.
Rookie southpaw Kris Bubic has scuffled this season, but to his credit he held the ChiSox in check during his last outing. We have to keep in mind that the 22-year old has not pitched above single-a until this season. The Northsiders have tallied a 161 wRC+ against lefties this season. Putting that in perspective, they are scoring 61% more runs than league average when facing southpaws.
Position limitations allow us to only roster two of Yasmani Grandal, Jose Abreu and Edwin Encarnacion. Most gamers will take the discount of Encarnacion on DraftKings or skip Grandal on FanDuel because “he is a catcher!” Tim Anderson continues to destroy left handed pitching and rookie Luis Robert is even better than advertised. Add in Eloy Jimenez, Yoan Moncada and discount dandies Danny Mendick and Adam Engel to mix-and-match all iterations of this lineup.
Late-Slate MLB DFS Picks
San Francisco Giants vs. LHP Madison Bumgarner – 4.9 implied runs
The Giants will be welcoming back their former ace Madison Bumgarner. However, as I have been mentioning all season, this is not the same Oracle Park that we are used to seeing. Could it be that the renovations bringing in the fences 4-8 feet in the alleys and center field have made the difference? Could it be a random small sample size of just 18 games? Is there any truth to they theory posited by myself and TMcB that the ball is being enhanced much like it is being suppressed by the humidors in Colorado and Arizona?
In 18 home games this season San Francisco has scored 103 runs and has allowed 101 for an 11.33 run per game average. This is behind Coors Field which is at 13.43 but ahead of every other stadium in the league with at least 15 games played. Other notable parks include Fenway 11.26, Yankee Stadium 9.76, Texas 8.16, Tropicana Field 8.11, Wrigley Field 6.68 and Target Field 6.20.
Bumgarner is coming off the injured list after missing almost a month with a back injury. Prior to being shelved he allowed seven home runs in his last three starts lasting a combined 11.2 innings. Look to righties Evan Longoria, Wilmer Flores and Donovan Solano to get things started tonight. Mike Yastrzemski is also a strong play as gamers will look elsewhere to avoid the lefty/lefty matchup. In his 146 career plate appearances against same-handed hurlers he has a .292 ISO and a 161 wRC+.
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