Wednesday, Sept. 9, has a mixture of early action before consolidating with a nine-game main slate beginning at 7:05 p.m. ET on DraftKings, FanDuel. Yahoo and SuperDraft. Before you lock in your MLB DFS lineups and MLB DFS picks, make sure to check out check out Awesemo’s DFS baseball MLB rankings and projections.
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New York Yankees at RHP Tanner Roark – 5.7 implied runs
Obvious play alert, but sometimes when making one recommendation per slate, it ends up being the chalk, particularly for the short slates. In this case we see the Yankees come in with a lofty 5.7 implied run total. The interesting part is that the lineup currently consists of the understudies. Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Judge and Gio Urshela have all been on the shelf for significant time. Brett Gardner is batting .170 and Aaron Hicks is dealing with calf cramps.
Recognizable names such as DJ LeMahieu, Gleyber Torres and Gary Sanchez are back, so that is likely where the casual gamer will flock. We should focus our attention on Luke Voit, Clint Frazier and even Mike Tauchman for some much-needed differentiation.
Roark is a middling pitcher who is on the back end of his career. Over his last 865 batters faced, he has a 4.70 xFIP, 37.5% hard hit rate with an ISO over .200 to batters from both sides of the plate. Lefties are the priority, but New York will not have many in their lineup today. Not to fear, as the righties still pack the lumber.
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New York Mets vs. RHP Jorge Lopez – 5.5 implied runs
We go back to Gotham for our second recommendation of the day. The Mets get a stellar matchup against Lopez was claimed off waivers after washing out with Kansas City. Lopez was a second round selection by Milwaukee back in the 2011 draft. He ended up with the Royals as part of the Mike Moustakas deal. He never showed much in his late season call-ups and essentially meandered through the farm system for seven seasons. Last season, aka his one lone year with more than 55 innings in The Show, he was disappointing for the Royals with a 6.33 ERA, 7.9 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9.
Lefties are our first preference with the last 450 compiling a 1.91 HR/9, 9.1% walk rate and a .220 ISO. Brandon Nimmo and Michael Conforto at the top of the order are my first two choices. We can add in Dominic Smith who does swing a big stick, though he whiffs a lot. Robinson Cano has been mired in a slump, and I am not particularly enamored with the 37-year-old at his current price point on DraftKings and Yahoo. The raw power of Pete Alonso plays against pitchers of any handedness. Jeff McNeil is just fine, even if he stays at the bottom of the order.
San Diego Padres vs. RHP Antonio Senzatela – 5.2 implied runs
In his last 137.0 innings away from Coors Field, Senzatela has allowed a 1.25 HR/9, 14.1% strikeout rate and 8.5% walk rate. Even with his 49.8% ground ball rate, he is still allowing a 5.32 ERA, 4.94 xFIP in these appearances. Even without Eric Hosmer and Tommy Pham, the Padres projected lineup has a combined .222 ISO.
Look to Trent Grisham, Fernando Tatis Jr. Manny Machado and recent acquisition Mitch Moreland at the top of the order as our core four. This quartet is also very much in play on the main slate. For some short-slate differentiation, look to the bottom third of the lineup with Jake Cronenworth, Jurickson Profar and Wil Myers, who all have significant power upside and will be at a price/popularity discount.
Oakland Athletics vs RHP Luis Garcia – 5.6 implied runs
This will be the second appearance in The Show for Garcia. Be sure you are pulling in the correct projections, as fellow rookie Luis Garcia of the Nationals, a middle infielder, has been creating chaos for vlookup formulas. DraftKings is even using the Nationals’ photo of Garcia for the Houston player.
Garcia does have strikeout upside. However, he has not pitched above Single-A until his appearance for the Astros last week. This is a bet on the experience of the Athletics’ veteran hitters versus the very green rookie hurler. Also, most DFS gamers do not follow the actual team standings, but this Oakland squad is leading the AL West by 4.5 games over Houston.
Matt Olson, Matt Chapman, Ramon Laureano and Mark Canha are the key players to target in any stack. Recent acquisition Tommy La Stella does a solid job of getting on base, which should equate to runs scored given the bats behind him. For differentiation I would skip Khris Davis, who is in a mega-slump, unless you are doing some MME. Instead consider using catcher Sean Murphy, who is “not an easy out” and has flashed a .313 ISO in his last 113 plate appearances against righties.
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