Monday, Aug. 17, we are starting the week off right with 7:05pm ET eleven-game “main” slate on DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo and SuperDraft. Before you lock in your MLB DFS lineups and MLB DFS picks, make sure to check out check out Awesemo’s DFS baseball MLB rankings and projections.
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Greetings, Gamers! This is going to be a fun one with twenty-two teams in action on DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo and SuperDraft.
Similar to last year, I will be providing a review of one stack for each of the day’s slates. Some of these short-slate options will be good for the full-game set, others will be more contrarian and better suited for the mini-game sets.
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MLB DFS Main-Slate Picks
Atlanta Braves vs. RHP Anibal Sanchez – 5.3 implied runs
My Live Before Lock and Early Bird cohost, Terry McBride gets credit for pointing out the drastic underlying metrics of RHP Anibal Sanchez. While he has made just three starts, he allowed four home runs in his first start against Toronto and then in his last outing he gave up another lasting just 2.2 innings in New York against the Metropolitians. Currently he is sitting at a 50% hard hit rate with a 14% barrel rate which is almost triple his last five seasons. The fastball may be the culprit as it is down almost two miles per hour at 88.9 and he has been relying more on his changeup (38.8%) at nearly double his career rate.
Even more damning is the key projection systems, ZiPS, Steamer, The Bat and Depth Charts all project him with a 2.0 HR/9 which is Coors Field like levels. As an added bonus, the Nationals bullpen is a disaster!
Ronald Acuna Jr. and Ozzie Albies who are both on the injured list with wrist injuries. That should keep Adam Duvall and Nick Markakis prominently in the heart of the order. The trio to target is of course Freddie Freeman, Marcell Ozuna and leadoff man Dansby Swanson.
MLB DFS Evening-Slate Picks
Minnesota Twins vs. RHP Kris Bubic – 5.7 implied runs
It looks like the Twins will be going with a bullpen game and utilizing RHP Matt Wisler as a 2-3 inning opener. This leaves RHP Kris Bubic as the key starter that we can target against. I will say that this run total is about a half a run higher than I expected as Bubic has been solid so far. Across three starts he has tallied 15 innings with as many strikeouts with just four walks.
Bubic was a compensatory first-round pick going 40th overall in the 2018 draft after his junior year at Stanford. He has a decent fastball and solid curves and changeups according to the scouting profiles. However, he has not pitched above the high-A level. Over his 187.1 MiLB innings he tallied an impressive 11.3 K/9 rate. A great MLB DFS pitcher to target.
On the other side we have a veteran team with tremendous power from both sides of the plate going against a young southpaw who will be celebrating his 23rd birthday on Wednesday. Since the beginning of last season, the Twins are a top-three offense by most metrics against lefties. Nelson Cruz is still getting the job done in his age-40 season, though we will be paying top dollar for his services. Since the start of last year, Mitch Garver and Miguel Sano both have been crushing the baseball with .400+ xISOs. Luis Arraez and Marwin Gonzalez do not possess prodigious power, but they do get on base 39.8% and 33.8% of the time against lefties. Lastly Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco will be just fine with all of the lineup protection around them.
Related MLB DFS Content
- Spotlight Hitters
- MLB Cram Session Part 1
- MLB Cram Session Part 2
- MLB Cram Session Part 3
- Top MLB DFS Stacks, Quick Hits
- The MLB Strategy Show Live Before Lock
MLB DFS Late-Slate Picks
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. RHP Justin Dunn – 5.7 implied runs
It will be interesting to see what the Mariners do with RHP Justin Dunn. Conventional thought has him profiling as a reliever. Of course starters are hard to come by and Seattle is lacking righties. The M’s are running a six man rotation with Dunn and Taijuan Walker as the only right-handed hurlers. The quarter of southpaws includes Marco Gonzales, Justus Sheffield, Yusei Kikuchi and Nick Margevicius.
Back to Dunn, he was the 19th overall pick in the 2016 draft out of Boston College. This year he mad the jump from double-a to The Show. In the minors he logged 392.1 innings with a 9.7 K/9, as a starter. With 6.2 innings last year and 13.0 through three starts this year he has a 5.9 K/9 with a woeful ten walks and three home runs.
The Dodgers are a top five offense this season by most traditional and advanced metrics. From the 2018 season their active roster leads the league with a .223 ISO and is second with a 122 wRC+. Of their core hitters only Justin Turner .186 ISO and Chris Taylor .175 ISO are below the elite .200 benchmark. Feel free to mix and match anyone in the starting lineup on Monday.
As always, you can reach out to me in Awesemo.com Premium Slack or on Twitter @EMacDFS if you have any questions or want to discuss anything MLB DFS related.
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