Tuesday, Aug. 25, has mix of early games and then a 10-game main slate beginning 7:10 p.m. EST on DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo and SuperDraft. Before you lock in your MLB DFS lineups and MLB DFS picks, make sure to check out check out Awesemo’s DFS baseball MLB rankings and projections.
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Greetings, Gamers! Depending on your site of choice you have a mix of early game action. Tonight everything comes together for a 10-game main slate.
Similar to last year, I will be providing a review of one stack for each of the day’s slates. Some of these short-slate options will be good for the full-game set, others will be more contrarian and better suited for the mini-game sets.
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Early-Slate Pick
Washington Nationals vs. RHP Jake Arrieta – 5.2 implied runs
This makes a nice leverage play as the dearth of pitching on this slate is going to lead gamers to Arrieta by default. There are also roving rainstorms in the DC-area forecast so anything that gets us to the Phillies bullpen is a bonus. While we do not like to live and die with BvP, both Juan Soto and Asdrubal Cabrera have done well against Arrieta. This duo also projects well against his pitch mix, so it is nice to see things align.
Trea Turner is now 2-for-4 on stolen base attempts, but Arrieta is not the best at preventing steals. Despite a 46.7% rate for throwing out base stealers last season, catcher J.T. Realmuto still saw the third-most attempts against in the league last season with 92, behind only Wilson Ramos (111) and Yasmani Grandal (100).
Eric Thames, Adam Eaton and Luis Garcia are other opposite-handed hitters we can work in for a full stack.
Main-Slate Pick
Chicago Cubs at RHP Spencer Turnbull – TBD implied runs
While Turnbull does a good job of limiting power with just 15 home runs allowed in his last 190 innings, he allows a lot of baserunners. Over his last two starts, he has had some control issues as well giving up eight base on balls. The Tigers have a perfectly average bullpen, but their two main long relievers Tyler Alexander and Daniel Norris have both pitched in the last 48 hours. We may see Turnbull be asked to take one for the team even if he is shaky.
Even with Kris Bryant on the shelf, there is still a plethora of power in the Cubs lineup. The trio to target today will be Anthony Rizzo, Kyle Schwarber and Ian Happ. We will not be alone in this assessment.
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Evening-Slate Picks
St Louis Cardinals vs. RHP Matt Harvey – 5.6 implied runs
It has been many moons since I wrote about the Redbirds. Of course, them being shelved for 16 days did not help either. They have an intriguing matchup against Harvey on Tuesday night. This is the same Dark Knight that was given the “nah wave” by both the KBO and Japanese league earlier this season.
Lefties have a toasty 1.94 HR/9 and a .241 ISO across their last combined 477 plate appearances. Same-handed hitters have been in the mix as well with a 1.54 HR/9 and nearly a .200 ISO in 467 plate appearances. The Kansas City bullpen was used heavily Sunday and Monday, and we want to remember that rosters are down to 26 players now through the rest of the season.
Paul Goldschmidt and Tommy Edman should be our top priorities in all formats. Kolten Wong is reasonably priced for his role as a leadoff hitter. Round things out with a mix of Matt Carpenter, Paul DeJong and Tyler O’Neill. If he makes the lineup, Brad Miller has multi-extra base hit upside, and of course veteran backstop Yadier Molina is in play on sites that require a catcher.
Late-Slate Picks
Colorado Rockies at LHP Alex Young – 5.1 implied runs
The roof is scheduled to be open tonight and Wednesday in Arizona. On Thursday afternoon it will be closed during the getaway game. In slightly more than 100 innings, Young has been hammered for home runs. 299 righties have tallied a 1.91 HR/9 with almost one in four fly balls leaving the yard. Same-handed hitters have not been kind either with a 1.42 HR/0 and a 9.5% walk rate.
Nolan Arenado (.234 ISO) and Trevor Story (.309) rank first and third among batters with at least 400 plate appearances against southpaws. Charlie Blackmon is fine in lefty/lefty matchups. Monday night he was a late scratch with quad soreness. He should be good to go if he makes the starting nine. Matt Kemp should be popular for his discounted price point, and he can still get it done against lefties. Ryan McMahon has decent pop against same-handed hurlers, and I prefer him over Garrett Hampson for the popularity disparity.
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