Wednesday, Sept. 2, has four early games with a 10-game main slate at 7:05 p.m. EST for DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo and SuperDraft. Before you lock in your MLB DFS lineups and MLB DFS picks, make sure to check out check out Awesemo’s DFS baseball MLB rankings and projections.
For the Wednesday MLB DFS Early Bird Show click HERE.
Early-Slate MLB DFS Picks
St. Louis Cardinals vs. RHP Tyler Mahle – 5.8 implied runs
Through 56 righty/lefty matchups this year, Mahle has seen some improvements. Opposite-handed hitters have compiled just a .258 wOBA and .170 ISO with a 26.8% strikeout rate. For comparison, his 522 matchups leading into this year resulted in a .388 wOBA, .262 ISO and a 21.6% strikeout rate. My recommendations will be based on reviewing this entire body of work.
Tuesday night the Cardinals knocked around Sonny Gray for six earned runs, and he did not make it out of the first inning. They plated 16 total in rout of the Reds. Collectively Kolten Wong, Tommy Edman, Brad Miller, Dexter Fowler and Matt Carpenter were 13-of-27 for a .481 average with three doubles, two home runs and 11 runs scored.
While we certainly cannot expect anything approaching those lofty marks today, that is the quintet to target.
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Main-Slate MLB DFS Picks
Atlanta Braves at RHP Mike Kickham – 6.0 implied runs
This was a fun one to research as 31-year old rookie Mike Kickham will be making his first appearance in The Show since 2014. Since he is still under 50.0 innings pitched and 45 service days, he is still technically a rookie. In two seasons across 30.1 innings for the Giants in 2013 and 2014 he allowed nine home runs, resulting in a 10.98 ERA and a 2.143 WHIP. On the positive side of things, he did have a strikeout per inning. During the last five years in the minors, he has bounced around with Seattle, Texas, back to San Francisco, Miami and now Boston. And how can I forget stints in the Dominican and Mexican leagues?
The assessment is easy for the Braves: Play everyone.
UPDATE: Mike Kickham is not starting, but likely will pitch out of the bullpen. Likely starter will now be 27-year old RHP Robinson Leyer who has bounced around the minors for seven seasons with the White Sox, Reds, Mariners and Red Sox. He has one inning in The Show so far and it came three days ago with 26 pitches against Atlanta.
Evening-Slate MLB DFS Picks
Minnesota Twins vs. RHP Reynaldo Lopez – 5.3 implied runs
Last night Byron Buxton returned from the Injured List with a two-hit performance. The Twins are expected to get Josh Donaldson (calf) back after a one-month layoff tonight. For the season, the Twins have been a below-average team against right-handed pitching with a 91 wRC+. Keep in mind that they are still a dangerous lineup from top to bottom. Essentially this same group set the all-time record with 307 home runs last year.
Since the beginning of the 2018 season, Lopez has allowed 62 home runs. This is the eighth-highest mark in the league during that stretch. With 30 going to lefties and 32 to righties, we can target power hitters from either side of the plate.
Max Kepler, Nelson Cruz and Miguel Sano is the power trio to target on all slates. Luis Arraez, Buxton and catcher Alex Avila are the differentiation options. Jorge Polanco, Eddie Rosario and Josh Donaldson are the full-stack augmentation pieces. This is officially our second “play everyone” game of the night.
Late-Slate MLB DFS Picks
San Diego Padres at RHP Julio Teheran – 5.4 implied runs
Currently this looks like the end of the line for Teheran. This season, in four starts and one relief appearances, he is allowing a 9.17 ERA with 1.70 baserunners on average with six home runs in 17.2 innings. It has long been the DFS rallying cry to “take lefties against Teheran,” but please note righties have had just as much success over the last three seasons.
The Padres have a loaded lineup, and this just does not seem like a fair fight. They acquired catchers Jason Castro and Austin Nola at the trade deadline along with Mitch Moreland. They join a core of Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, Eric Hosmer and Wil Myers.
As always, you can reach out to me in Awesemo.com Premium Slack or on Twitter @EMacDFS if you have any questions or want to discuss anything MLB DFS related.
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