Hello, UFC fans. I hope everyone is doing well. This weekend, we have a 10-fight card in Las Vegas, including a main event between Jessica “Evil” Eye and Cynthia Calvillo. The main GPP has $100,000 going to first place and a total of $300,000 being paid out. Here will I offer the fighters I feel have the most upside and value. Let’s dig into some UFC DFS picks analysis.
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UFC DFS Core Picks
Cynthia Calvillo | DraftKings: $7,900, FanDuel: $16
Calvillo is moving up to flyweight for the first time in the UFC. She throws a nice jab, straight right-hand combination, and will throw an occasional kick to the head. Calvillo is most dangerous on the ground where she will look for armbars and triangles in hopes of locking in a submission. She is Awesemo’s third-highest-projected fighter on the slate with 50% win odds and 42.2% top-six odds.
Julia Avila | DraftKings: $9,300, FanDuel: $19
Avila was initially scheduled to fight Karol Rosa, but she was forced out for reasons currently undisclosed. Now she will be facing Gina Mazany who she should be able to dominate everywhere. Avila is an aggressive fighter and she throws a hard jab, straight-right hand combination. She is a strong grappler and dangerous from the clinch, throwing hard elbows and knees to the body. Avila is Awesemo’s highest-projected fighter on the slate with 83.3% win odds according to the premium Top Fighters Tool. She is a lock in all formats.
Merab Dvalishvili | DraftKings: $9,200, FanDuel: $20
Dvalishvili is dangerous on the feet and he throws with huge power and hand speed. He throws a nasty jab, uppercut combination that is dangerous when landed clean. Dvalishvili will throw a spinning backfit at times, which will put his opponents lights out in a hurry. Dvalishvili happens to be Awesemo’s second-highest-projected fighter on the slate with 85.9% win odds and 38.7% top-six odds.
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UFC DFS Mid-Priced Picks
Mariya Agapova | DraftKings: $8,700, FanDuel: $17
Agapova is making her UFC debut. She is a finisher and will bring the pressure to her opponents. She is a high-volume striker and when she hurts her opponent, she will pounce on them and look to finish. Agapova is Awesemo’s fifth-highest-projected fighter on the slate with 75.0% win odds according to the Top Fighters Tool.
Kevin Aguilar | DraftKings: $8,400, FanDuel: $18
Aguilar is a good boxer and throws a jab, one-two combination that can hurt his opponents. His straight right is pure power, which can put his opponents to sleep. He likes being on the inside, where he will explode a barrage of punches to the body and head. Awesemo has Aguilar projected at 63.9% win odds with just 25.0% ownership, which could be a leverage play in big-field tournaments.
UFC DFS Value Picks
Karl Roberson | DraftKings: $7,400, FanDuel: $12
Roberson is a solid striker. He throws a nasty jab, straight left combination. He will walk his opponents down while using his jab to inflict damage to his opponent. Roberson throws nasty leg kicks, that will slow his opponent down to the point of being able to finish them. One thing to note in this fight: Roberson will have to keep this fight standing. Awesemo has Roberson projected at 33.3% win odds versus 24.0% win odds, which would be a nice value if he gets the finish.
Related MMA Content
- The Awesemo YouTube Channel – Weekly UFC DFS Strategy Show
- The Heat Sheet: UFC DFS Stats Cheatsheet for Eye vs. Cavillo (FREE THIS WEEK)
- MMA DFS Primer with Alex ‘Awesemo’ Baker
- UFC DFS DraftKings and FanDuelProjections (PREMIUM)
- MMA DFS Ownership Projections for DraftKings and FanDuel MMA (PREMIUM)
- UFC DFS Top Fighters Tool for DraftKings and FanDuel (PREMIUM)