British Open Review
What a final round that was. Slip ups by Tiger Woods and Jordan Spieth were just enough to hand the impeccable Francesco Molinari the Claret Jug after a birdie on 18 gave him a two shot lead on the field. Molinari was Awesemo’s highest priced ‘A’ grade golfer last week and all his ‘A’ Grade golfers over $8000 made the cut. We went 3/3 at The Approach, bringing our season total to 23 of 28 cuts made.
Awesemo’s new ranking system
Awesemo has added a new category to his PGA ranks this week, putting it in line with his other DFS sports. Instead of just getting a Value Rating, DFSers are also going to get a Points Grade. This might clear up a little confusion about why some of the top players were always getting bad grades in his system. It’s not that they were bad plays, it’s that they’re bad values relative to their salary. Now you can see the stars getting their due, with some ‘A’ grades at the top of both sites this week.
The Canadian Open
A Canadian hasn’t won this event since Henry Hudson sailed up the St. Lawrence for the Dutch East India Company, and I don’t expect that to change this year.
Glen Abbey is a short, 7250-yard, Par 72 with classic, medium-width, tree-lined fairways, and bentgrass greens. There’s a bomber narrative here, and it’s easy to see why. A lot of the driving distance and par-five scoring metrics back test well here. For DFS purposes, par-five scoring is going to be huge this week, with three holes from 500-550 yards accounting for almost half the birdies made. But we’ve seen quite a few shorter hitters succeed at Glen Abbey over the years, including Chez Reavie, Alex Cejka, and Brandt Snedeker. Lean bombers but don’t be afraid of low-owned shorter hitters in GPPs.
The Plays
Tom Lovelady: DraftKings: $6800, Points: C, Value: A; FanDuel, Points: C, Value: A
If we’re following the bomber narrative, there’s no better place to start than Tom Lovelady, who mashes it off the tee to the tune of a 315-yard driving average. He’s going to have some short approach shot into these 525-yard par-fives. Lovelady is coming off a second at the Barbasol and ranks 20th in my mixed condition model. Lovelady is projected at 7% ownership on DraftKings and 3% on FanDuel.
The stats:
- 11th in long-term Birdie or Better
- 11th in long-term GIR
- 1st in long and short term driving distance.
Stewart Cink: DraftKings, $7100, Points: B, Value: A; FanDuel: Points: B, Value: C
Fresh off a top-25 at the Open, the 44-year-old keeps churning out high-end finished but still doesn’t get the respect he deserves. I used to think he just didn’t have the upside to roster in GPPs, but a 4th at St. Jude and a 2nd at the Travelers put an end to that talk.
With a $7100 price tag he’s one of the most mispriced golfers in the field, ranking third in the Vegas bargain ratings. Cink is 19th in my mixed condition model.
The Stats:
- 15th in mid-term SG:T2G
- Top 50 in ST, Course, and LT Driving Distance
- 9th in LT Eagles Gained
- 11th in season long PGA weighted scoring average
Byeong Hun An: DraftKings: $7800, Points: B, Value: A; FanDuel: $10,600, Points B, Value D
Speaking of mispriced, Ben An is about a thousand dollars too cheap on DraftKings, but at around 15% ownership, he’s not as chalky as you’d expect. On FanDuel he’s priced up, so I’d rather just play him on DK. He’s seventh in my mixed condition model and bentgrass is his best putting surface.
The Stats:
- 11th in LT BoB
- 13th in ST, 16th in LT P5 500-550 scoring (three of four holes)
- 16th in LT Driving Distance
- 8th in SG:T2G
Low-owned GPP plays
I’ll go back to the Chez Reavie well on DK this week (C,A) at around 8-10% ownership. Considering he was 25% owned two weeks ago in a similar spot, that’s a bargain. He doesn’t have the length, but he’s had some success here before with four straight made cuts and two top-25s in a row. Reavie’s LT P4 scoring is among the best in the field.
I also don’t mind Shane Lowry (C,C) at 5% on DK, though it feels like he lacks high end upside for GPPs.
DraftKings ownership fades
Tough to fade a guy that mows his mom’s lawn after his second biggest paycheque on the tour, but Harold Varner III is shaping up to be 20% owned. Full fade for me. In that price range I’ll also go underweight on Killa Keith Mitchell at 17%. Each of these guys has palatable ownership over on FanDuel.
With Tony Finau and Dustin Johnson projected as the two highest owned players, I’d avoid rostering both in the same lineup. You’re gonna have to get creative at the bottom if you do. The ownership feels concentrated and sharp this week, so it might be a better strategy to take slightly worse plays at lower ownership than the chalk at the top.
FanDuel ownership fades
Might as well move over to DraftKings if you want to play Brooks Koepka, Tommy Fleetwood, or Tony Finau. All three are better values on DraftKings, but come with similar ownership.
Agree? Disagree? Want to tell me I’m an idiot? Give me a shout: @nolan__kelly
