The UFC is in Adelaide, Australia this weekend with a Fight Night card this Saturday evening (7:00pm EST lock) event. This is back-to-back weeks with Heavyweights headlining the card with Junior Dos Santos taking on local favorite, Tai Tuivasa, in the Main Event. There are only 12 fights on the card, but it remains a strong target for both cash games and tournaments. As usual, I will highlight my favorite plays in each format to help narrow down your decisions.
* Current betting odds and finish props can be found at BestFightOdds.com
Main Event
Junior Dos Santos ($8300)(-150) vs Tai Tuivasa ($7900)(+130) – The main event is a very strong target in GPPs and makes sense as a stack in cash games because of the high-variance nature of the Heavyweight division. Neither fighter attempts many takedowns, so I expect this fight to take place on the feet for as long as it lasts.
JDS is the better technical striker and is much more experienced, but he’s also taken way more damage throughout is career and his durability is a question mark. Tuivasa is the much younger and fresher fighter in this matchup and while he’s still undefeated at 10-0, he hasn’t really been tested so far and JDS will be a massive step up in competition for him. Both fighters have power and strike at a high volume, with JDS having the better footwork and boxing, while Tuivasa likes to get in close and throw a lot of knees and elbows.
There were concerns for JDS heading into his last fight with Ivanov as he was coming off a year-long USADA suspension, but he looked great in a 5-round decision win and based on that performance I still think he is an elite fighter in this division. I expect JDS to pick up the win here if his chin holds up, so he is my preferred play in this matchup. Tuivasa is unlikely to win a decision over JDS, but with his path to victory being a KO I think he’s worth having exposure to as well in GPPs.
Cash Game Plays
Damir Ismagulov ($9500)(-525) , Tyson Pedro ($9400)(-440), Sodiq Yusuff ($9300)(-550) – The three most expensive fighters on the card all make for great options in both formats this weekend and I would like to get at least two of them into my cash lineup if possible. Pedro is the biggest name of the bunch and likely to be the highest owned as Ismagulov and Yusuff are each making their UFC debuts.
Pedro is the best bet for an early finish (-230 ITD prop) against fading veteran, Shogun Rua, who has been KO’d in his last three losses and was destroyed early in his last fight against Anthony Smith. While Pedro is a dangerous submission grappler and has some power on the feet, I do have some concerns for him as a DFS option if he can’t put Shogun away early. Shogun is the better technical striker and Pedro doesn’t land as much volume, so it will be hard for him to pay off his salary if the fight goes to a decision.
Yusuff is the biggest favorite on the card over Mokhtarian and is slightly cheaper than the other two guys. He’s a dangerous striker who throws at a high volume while Mokhtarian is a skilled submission grappler who’s faced mainly lower level competition. Mokhtarian doesn’t have the best wrestling so I think he’ll have a hard time getting the fight to the ground against the much more athletic Yusuff. Yusuff has the second-best finish prop on the card at -195 but Mokhtarian is tough, so we may see a later finish, but his volume gives him an excellent floor in that scenario.
Ismagulov is likely to be the lowest owned of the trio because of the higher price tag and lower finish prop (-115) but I believe he has the best ceiling of the bunch because of his strong wrestling and excellent ground game. He has heavy ground-and-pound and is always looking to advance position which is important for DFS since grappling points are weighted so heavily. Ismagulov gets the most favorable matchup against Gorgees, who is taking the fight on just one week’s notice.
Tony Martin ($7800)(-105) and Wilson Reis ($7700)(+135) – Martin and Reis are the best odds value plays below 8k as each fighter has seen their betting odds improve throughout the week. Martin is probably the safer but lower-upside option of the two in his fight against Jake Matthews. Both fighters appear to have made big improvements over their last couple fights and it should be a competitive matchup. Matthews is the better wrestler, but Martin should have the edge in submission grappling and potentially in the striking department as well. It’s a very close fight to call but given the price discrepancy I think Martin makes for the better play in cash games.
Reis is more of a risk/reward option in the same price range as his grappling game gives him a better ceiling, but he will be in trouble if the fight plays out on the feet. I will go into more details on that fight in the GPP section.
Salim Touahri ($7400)(+155) and Mizuto Hirota ($7200) – If you need to save some salary in cash games to fit in the big dogs, Touahri and Hirota seem like the best options. Touahri has the best chance of picking up the win in this price range, but his opponent, Nakamura, can often slow the pace of his fights with his grappling game so I am a bit worried about the scoring potential of this fight. Hirota rarely wins fights but often makes for a great cash punt because of his incredible durability and high output. I don’t have high expectations for a victory over Giagos, but Hirota has the best floor in a loss of any other punt option.
GPP Plays
Jimmy Crute ($8700)(-260) vs Paul Craig ($7500)(+220) – This fight has one of the better finish props on the card at -285 and I think it makes for a strong target in GPPs with Crute being the preferred play. Crute is a young local fighter making his UFC debut at home in Australia but gets a favorable matchup against a poor defensive fighter in Paul Craig. Craig is a good submission grappler who has taken multiple beatings so far in the UFC as his striking defense is terrible and his chin is weak. He pulled off a fluky last-minute submission in his previous fight against Anakalaev after getting manhandled for three straight rounds. Crute has a wrestling background and is a brown belt in BJJ but is also super aggressive on the feet and has some power so I like his potential to attack early and finish the fight. He can gas himself out with this strategy though, so I think it makes sense to have some exposure to Craig in case he can survive the early barrage.
Ben Nguyen ($8500)(-155) vs Wilson Reis ($7700)(+135) – This is a classic striker vs grappler matchup and I often prefer to side with the grappler for DFS purposes, especially when they are the cheaper option, as Reis is in this situation. He is my favorite GPP option below Tuivasa because of his relentless chain-wrestling and grappling style. Reis has four UFC fights with over 6 takedowns and 6 advances, including his most recent fight where he landed 8 takedowns and 8 advances against Moraga and put up 70 DK points in a loss. Nguyen is an explosive high-volume striker who scores highly in wins but has poor defensive grappling and is prone to mistakes because of his ultra-aggressive style. He was submitted by Formiga last fight and struggled on the ground in his loss to Smolka. On the other side, Reis is getting older and slower on the feet. He’s been rocked and knocked down multiple times in recent fights and was KO’d by Cejudo two fights ago. If he can’t get his grappling game going early, I see a path to a high-scoring victory for Nguyen on the feet at lower ownership.
Other GPP Options: Justin Willis ($8200), Mark Hunt ($8000), Shogun Rua ($6800)
