Hello, UFC fans. This weekend, we have a 12-card in Abu Dhabi, including a main event between Deiveson Figueiredo and Joseph Benavidez. The main GPP has $150,000 going to first place with a total of $600,000 being paid out. Here I will offer the fighters I feel have the most upside and value. Let’s dig into some UFC DFS picks and analysis..
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Core UFC DFS Picks
Deiveson Figueiredo | DraftKings: $9,000, FanDuel: $22
Figueiredo had the edge in the first meeting before the accidental headbutt. He controlled the middle of the octagon and was able to disrupt Joseph Benavidez’s rhythm with his hard counterpunching. He also has a chin of steel, and I think he can withstand whatever Benavidez throws at him. This should be an exciting fight to watch, as both fighters are active and push the pace. I foresee Figueiredo ending this fight via third-round submission. Awesemo’s fighter projections have Figueiredo projected as the top fighter on the slate with 66% win odds.
Grant Dawson | DraftKings: $9,200, FanDuel: $19
Dawson has eight submission wins, seven of them via rear naked chokes. He is a solid grappler and is very fluid and efficient with his takedowns. This should be a fun fight to watch; both fighters are high-paced. Nad Narimani has fight-ending power in his hands, so if Dawson cannot get Narimani to the mat, this fight could end with a knockout win for Narimani. So, this is a risky core play but could also be high reward with a first-round knockout. Dawson also happens to be Awesemo’s second-highest projected fighter on the slate with 71% win odds.
Montel Jackson | DraftKings: $9,100, FanDuel: $19
Jackson is going to be the bigger fighter. He is a solid wrestler and a good striker. I think he has the makings for being a contender for the bantamweight title. In his fight against Rico DiSciullo on ‘The Contender Series,” Jackson showed nice patience and solid striking. My only concern is Brett Johns is a wildfire and could very well give Jackson some problems. Just be cautious when using him, but I think he is worth a shot due to the upside that he as showed in previous fights. Awesemo’s MMA DFS Projections have him projected as the fourth-highest-scoring fighter on the slate with 65% win odds.
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Mid-Priced UFC DFS Picks
Jack Hammerson | DraftKings: $8,000 FanDuel: $16
Hammerson is going to have a six-inch reach advantage, and he is a solid striker with decent power. He is the better grappler and should have the advantage if this fight hits the mat. I expect Hammerson to come in with a heavy grappling gameplan, looking to empty Gastelum gas tank. I think this fight will go to the judges’ score card, and Hammerson could still score highly if he brings a grappling gameplan. Awesemo’s Top Fighter Tool gives him a 49% win odds and a 25% chance at top 6%.
Alexandre Pantoja | DraftKings: $8,000 FanDuel: $16
Pantoja has established himself as one the top flyweights in the division, and he has shown knockout power. He has finished his last three victories, two by knockout and one by submission. I think this will be a high-paced, exciting fight to watch. There is a potential for a knockout, as I foresee both men trading big punches. Awesemo’s projections gives Pantoja 65% win odds and the sixth-highest projections on the slate.
Value UFC DFS Picks
Joseph Benavidez | DraftKings: $7,200 FanDuel: $17
Benavidez was on a three-fight win streak before his loss to Figueiredo five months ago. In this rematch Benavidez will be looking to avenge that loss. I would expect Benavidez to come out aggressive looking for the knockout give they had some brutal exchanges in their first match. I foresee this fight ending in a knockout in the early third round, and my lean is Figueiredo being the one ending things. Awesemo’s MMA DFS Projections gives Benavidez 34% win odds.
Carlos Felipe | DraftKings: $7,800 FanDuel: $15
Felipe has knocked out six of his seven opponents, all of them in the first round. Sergey Spivak will be a big test for Felipe, who has never gone past the second round in his victories. However, I think Felipe has a good chance at a knockout, and he is one the underdogs I like to pick up an upset. Felipe should end this fight late first round via knockout. Awesemo’s projections give Felipe a 32% chance for a knockout with 42% win odds.
