Draftkings gave us a split slate today. The first slate starts at 2 CT for the RLCS North America Promotion Playoffs. The second, and the featured, slate starts at 7 CT and has two games, both consisting of matches from the RLCS Oceania Regional Championship.
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North American Rocket League DFS Slate
The bottom two teams from the RLCS face off against the top two teams of the Rocket League Rivals series to determine who gets to stick around in the top league for the next season of the RLCS. The bracket is double elimination so for these team’s the promotion calculus is pretty simple: lose two matches and you’re in the Rivals Series, lose one or less and you get to play in the next season of the RLCS.
Rogue (-400) vs. Stromboli
Rogue represent the biggest favorite of the day by far in the first game of the slate. Stromboli’s roster consist of three relative unknowns who have never really played at this level of RL. Meanwhile, Rogue has a Season 1 World Champion in Kronovi and two more players with plenty of experience at this level.
Rogue were really tough to get a feel for in Season 9 after the departure of AyyJayy, but they’ve looked much better in the Spring Skirmish series. If you’ve ever played Rocket League it’s easy to understand how much chemistry really matters — knowing where you need to be and where your teammates are is how goals get created. — so perhaps they struggled to adjust to having a new teammate in firstkiller.
Regardless, they’ve won twelve of their last sixteen matches in all competitions and they look much improved. Kronovi is a certified legend in the game, winning the first World Championship and generally being really well known in the RL community. For as short as eSports careers typically are, it’s impressive that he’s still performing at this level. Yes, it feels silly to say that when the Season 1 World Championship was in August 2016, but the game has literally changed a ton since then.
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Because they’re a -400 favorite in a 2 game slate we’re definitely going to want a lot of two (and possibly even three) man Rogue stacks. With how well they’ve been playing lately it’s tough to go away from the Kronovi-firstkiller stack. As we saw last week though with SPYDOGE, when we’re stacking teams any of the three players on the team are in play.
We’re probably going to want to shy away from Stromboli as much as possible. However it is a two game slate, so we’re going to at least want to have some shares of the team. I would rank them Hec > JPow > Alraz.
Charlotte Phoenix (-125) vs. eUnited
The second match of the slate projects to be much tighter. Charlotte are fighting for promotion and are a slight favorite over eUnited here. They allowed a full shot attempt less per game than anyone else in the Rivals Series and were +28 on goal differential on the season, ten more than any other team.
eUnited, formerly known as Birds and the Beez — I can only assume their team name was a Schoolboy Q shoutout — really struggled in their second season at the RLCS level. They swept Cloud9 at the beginning of the year, lost two in a row, swept Rogue, and then finished their season losing five in a row. The combination of an anemic offense (1.25 goals per game and 6.97 shots per game) and opponent pressure on their goal (allowed 9.63 shots per game and 2.06 goals per game) is a bad one to have in this game.
The nice thing about eU is that when they do score we typically know who is going to be involved — Hockser or Ayjacks. Both had a 70% goal participation rate. The participation rate for their third player, Roll Dizz, sat at only 40%. I like Hockser the most of the three, then Ayjacks, and Roll Dizz as a distant third.
Shadow was the best player in the RLRS this season, participating in a ridiculous 77% of Charlotte’s goals and scoring 1.19 goals per game. There wasn’t another player in the RLRS who averaged more than 1 goal per game. He’s a premier play in this matchup against eUnited’s defense. Draftkings priced him up like they should have, but we’re absolutely going to prioritize him at Captain anyways.
After Shadow, Turinturo and Karma look like roughly equal plays for Charlotte. DK did price both of them down so we may be able to work in Rogue and Charlotte stacks with one of them and Shadow. On paper that’s probably the optimal card of the early slate.
Top Targets: Firstkiller, Kronovi, Wonder, Shadow, Hockser
Top Stacks: Rogue
RLCS DFS OCE Slate
These two matches kick off the Regional Championships for the RLCS Oceania region. This bracket is also double elimination so none of these teams are at risk of going home if they lose this match. Psyonix also juiced up the prize pools for the Regional Champions because they had to cancel the World Championships so there’s a lot more money at stake for these teams than there normally would be.
#1 Ground Zero Gaming (-120) vs #4 Cringe Society
GZG opened as -120 favorites against the four seed Cringe Society. We saw last week how good GZG can be when Decka and Julz are firing on all cylinders, as they clinched the 1 seed for themselves by beating Mindfreak in four games. I like stacking any combination of the three players in this matchup if we can make it happen — Draftkings left the prices for all three at among the highest of the slate.
SPYDOGE really came to play last week for CS and was the punt to have on the slate. I’m still not very excited to target him in a tough matchup against GZG. In their matchup earlier this season we saw Torsos and Drippay carry CS and keep them close in all five games and I expect to see them be significantly the highest scorers on their team again here.
#2 Mindfreak (-137) vs #3 Fury Gaming
Fury were kind of lucky to advance to the winners’ bracket last week. Tiebreaker scenarios were at play in the last game of the slate: if Team Esper had won in four games or less then they would have advanced, if Fury had won the match by any scoreline they would have advanced, and if Esper won in five then Renegades would have advanced. After blowing a 2-0 lead in the series and losing the fourth game 5-2, Esper decided that they would not let Renegades advance and quite literally threw the game. It was reminiscent of some World Cup matches where teams advance with a tie and they resort to kicking the ball back and forth at midfield. Pretty hilarious unless you’re on the Renegades, I suppose.
As I detailed in last week’s writeup, Fury are led by one of the best Rocket League players in the world. Amphis really stepped up for them after they fell behind 2-0 and scored four goals alone in the fourth game. If Fury are going to win, he’s going to put up a big score.
We also saw Scarth step up for Fury in must win games. He and KennySalmon are both definitely viable in Fury stacks and as one-offs especially since they give us some salary relief.
Draftkings priced down Fever this week despite him being the only player on Mindfreak that put up a decent performance against GZG. He’s the most affordable of the elite players on the slate and as such should probably be the highest owned. Any sort of Mindfreak stack is going to have to include him, I think; it’s hard to picture them having a great series without heavy involvement from Fever.
Between the two basement salary options of SPYDOGE and Ghost, I significantly prefer Ghost. His efficiency wasn’t quite as good as Requiem’s on his squad, but the opportunities should be there against the leakiest defense in the winner’s bracket. Playing Ghost allows you to comfortably fit in two high-priced Captains, which could be a huge advantage on a tough slate like this.
Top Targets: Decka, Julz, Torsos, Amphis, Fever
Top Stacks: GZG
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