Dell Championship review
Don’t know why I got off Bryson last week after picking him at the Northern Trust, but I’m kicking myself. Perhaps it was the thousand-dollar price bump, that now looks like a bargain compared to his elite pricing for this week’s BMW Championship. Back-to-back wins will do that for you. We went three for three on made cuts last week, though that doesn’t count for much when three quarters of the field makes it through. However, both Awesemo double-A grade Tony Finau and Approach low-owned GPP flier recommendation CT Pan finished T-4 last week.
The BMW Championship at Aronimink
The final decent sized field DFS event of the season is upon us. In two weeks the top-30 will play in the Tour Championship, before another week off and the start of the 2018-19 season.
The Aronimink Golf course is a 7300-yard, Par-70, with 37-yard wide fairways, and bentgrass greens. It’s the first time the course has hosted an event since the 2011 AT&T National. This is a Donald Ross design that went through a Gil Hanse restoration back in 2015. It’s longer and has 100 more bunkers than it did in 2011, so put exactly zero stock in course history.
Form seems to be king this time of year, so fade it at your own risk. The problem of course, is that ownership follows form. Over the last five years, the winner of this event has finished no worse than 12th in in their last tournament. Yowza.
Out of the tournament
Because of the Monday Dell finish, it looks like DFS sites chose to include bubble players in their player pools. The following players are not playing this week:
Ryan Moore, Whee Kim, Nick Watney, Kevin Streelman, Jimmy Walker, Daniel Berger, Stewart Cink,
We’re not seeing a lot of crossover between value and elite point grades this week. You’re going to have to choose between good points grades and good value grades, unlike, say last week’s Tony Finau (A,B,A,A). But these valuations are all relative, so don’t get too put off by the mediocre grades for some of these options.
With these no cut events, I like to place an emphasis on DFS scorers, so I’ll weight birdie or better percentage a little higher than I do most weeks. Up top, it’s probably a good idea to let ownership dictate which direction you go in. If DJ is going to be heavily owned, pivoting to Justin Thomas or Rory McIlroy might make sense.
There forecast is calling for rain and thundershowers all weekend, so check the weather closer to lock to see if there’s a draw advantage.
As always with these smaller fields, don’t forget to leave some cash on the table, especially if you’re going chalk.
The stats listed below correlate with success at Aronimink during the last tour events here.
Henrik Stenson: DraftKings, $7600: Grade: C, Value: B; FanDuel, $10,300: Grade: C, Value: E
Despite an elbow injury that caused him to withdraw from the Northern Trust two weeks ago, Stenson was recently named to the European Ryder Cup team, along with three other out-of-form septuagenarians.
Stenson faltered down the stretch and finished 69th at the Dell Championship, but at only $7600 on DraftKings, this price is too good to pass up. The good news is that he’s playing well tee-to-green, with 18 strokes gained in his last four tournaments. If he can turn his ice-cold putter around, he makes for a nice course fit at Aronimink. I’m always willing to bet on a guy with a strong T2G game who is one hot putting week away from challenging. He’s priced up a bit on FanDuel, so I’d only consider him as a low-owned GPP flier. He has the number one Vegas Bargain Rating on DraftKings. Stenson is projected at 13% ownership on DraftKings and 6% on FanDuel.
- First in scoring on Donald Ross designs, last 50 rounds
- First in GIR, last 50 rounds
- 6th in long-term scoring P4 400-450 yards (seven holes)
- First in good drives gained, last 50 rounds
- 12th best weighted scoring average on the Tour this season
Cheng-Tsung Pan: DraftKings, $6900: Grade: D, Value: B; FanDuel, $8300: Grade: D, Value: C
Let’s got back to the well here and grab a young player with upside who’s riding the form of his life (sounds familiar). Pan has quietly made 11 of his last 12 cuts and has five top-20s in his last eight events. The stats aren’t popping, but Pan does have a top-three Vegas bargain rating on both sites. It’s possible he’ll turn out to be chalk, at which point a fade might be in order. We’ll have to wait and see when Awesemo’s ownership projections come out later this afternoon.
- Top-15 in GIR, last 50 rounds
- 20th in bogey avoidance over last 50 rounds
- 13th in good drives gained
Emiliano Grillo: DraftKings, $7400, Grade: C, Value: B; FanDuel, $8400: Grade: C; Value: A
We’re not too far removed from Grillo being owned at 15-20% week in and week out, so at a similar price point, I’ll happily roster him at half the ownership. He’s made four straight cuts, is coming off a T-4 at the Dell Championship and he seems like a good course fit.
- 2nd in strokes gained putting on Bentgrass, last 50 rounds
- 11th in scrambling, last 50 rounds
- 8th in good drives gained, last 50 rounds
- 24th in BoB, 23rd in Bogey Avoidance, last 50 rounds
Low owned GPP fliers:
DraftKings: Rory McIlroy (A,E) is projecting at only 6% owned on DraftKings. So, for $800 less than Tony Finau, you can get him at almost a quarter of the ownership. Rory is 14th in Birdie or Better, 7th in Bogey Avoidance, and 4th in DK scoring on Donald Ross designs, over the last 50 rounds.
FanDuel: Patrick Reed (C, E) is overpriced at $10,700, but at 3% ownership, the Big Game Hunter is worth taking a risk on in large GPPs. Also, Reed is pissed off right now because he’s being mercilessly mocked by his peers after seat gate. Word is he plays better when he’s in a bad mood.
DraftKings: I was surprised to see Tony Finau at the top of the ownership projections this week, after an $800 price bump jumped him into the Jason Day, Jon Rahm range. I can’t remember seeing him priced this high in such a deep field, though it’s obviously well deserved after back-to-back top-five finishes. I won’t go full fade on Finau with such huge birdie upside in a no cut event, but I’ll be underweight at that price tag.
FanDuel: If you’re a regular, you know the drill. Dj at 40% = fade.
Check back in a few hours for some ownership fades and low-owned GPP fliers.
Agree? Disagree? Wanna tell me I’m terrible? Gimme a shout on Twitter @nolan__Kelly
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