U.S Open Review
What a crazy week at Shinnecock. The were a lot of polarizing responses to the USGA set-up, but I loved it. So much entertainment value. For a while it looked like Awesemo “A” grade, Tommy Fleetwood might get a win while kicking his feet up in the clubhouse, but Brooks Koepka muscled his way to a second straight U.S. Open title.
The U.S. Open marked another successful week for Awesemo’s rankings. Of the 18 players with an “A” grade for the U.S. Open, 15 made the cut and six were in the top-ten. We had a respectable week at The Approach, with all three of our recommendations placing in the top-45. Unfortunately, my low-owned GPP fliers, Bubba Watson and Sergio Garcia didn’t produce – though I still like the idea of popping either one of them into a Milly Maker with such low ownership.
The Travelers
On to TPC River Highlands, which sounds like a peaceful agrarian, region in Game of Thrones. This week, the shorter hitters get a break, with River Highlands coming in about 600 yards less than that that 7400-yard behemoth on Long Island. We’ve got a par-70, Pete Dye design with easy to hit fairways, bent/poa greens, quite a few bunkers and a couple of water hazards.
After a quick look at ownership rates I’m having trouble finding value this week. As a course history truther, I generally try to gain value by fading course history plays, opting for long-term skill and form instead, but this might be one of those rare instances where course history has some predictive value. Or, I should say, a lot of the course history guys also have stats that pop.
The Plays
Keegan Bradley: DraftKings: $7,900, Grade: A; FanDuel: $9,700, Grade: C
The SG:T2G monster is makes his first appearance in the Approach, ready to disappoint us all again. Like a lot of DFSers I can’t figure Keegan out. His stats say he should be one of the top-10 players on tour, but his consistently terrible putting always holds him back. Over the long term he’s sixth in the entire field in SG:T2G, ahead of 2018 Major champions Patrick Reed and Brooks Koepka. Keegan is third on the tour this year in ball striking and is top-five in my custom approach model. As well, Keegan has positive bent/poa putting splits, and I always like to roster guys who are one hot week with the flat stick away from winning.
Kyle Stanley: DraftKings: $7,700, Grade: A; FanDuel: $8,900, Grade: A
The DFS favorite fell off the radar a bit during the Spring, but he’s starting to gain a little buzz of late after a second-place finish at Memorial. I generally roster Stanley on shorter courses, where is lack of distance won’t be an impediment. In my custom P4 scoring model, he’s number eight in the field in short term scoring and 15th in long term. He has the 12th best long term adjusted round score in the field but is the highest 42nd priced golfer on FanDuel and 26th highest priced on DraftKings. And bent/poa is his best putting surface. At around 10% ownership on DK and 15% on FD. Stanley is my favorite play of the week.
Chez Reavie: DraftKings: $7,200, Grade: A; FanDuel: $9,300, Grade: C
Chesney always has a chance to compete on these shorter courses and he’s got a nice Vegas bargain rating on both sites. Long term, he’s number one in the field from the key 400-450 par four range (8 holes) and he’s top-10 in my long-term custom approach model. He’s flashed a bit of form lately, with a 6th at the St. Jude and right now he’s projected at 13% ownership on both sites – not bad, not great. He makes a better play on DraftKings than FanDuel.
Low owned GPP flier:
Well, he’s not a birdie maker, but he can get you those place points. Jim Furyk (Grades A, B) is quietly rounding into form after a shoulder injury kept him off the tour for six months. Upon returning he’s been awful and obviously at 48 years old, his best years are behind him. But we’re only two years removed from him being consistently priced among the top-15 golfers, week in and week out, so I don’t mind gambling that he could find some semblance of the player he once was, and at 3% ownership, you can pop him into a lineup or two and still be overweight on the field. Historically, he’s performed well on Pete Dye courses.
Bonus low-owned GPP flier: How about U.S. Open champion Brooks Koepka, whose ownership is projected at a measly 7% on DK right now. I was off him right from the get-go, buying into the whole “tough to rebound mentally after a major win,” narrative, but his stats align well here, and at that ownership, I’ll have a sprinkle. Of note: He has the worst Vegas bargain rating in the field on both sites this week.
DraftKings GPP fade: I hate to keep doing this, but right now Awesemo has Emiliano Grillo projected as the second highest owned golfer in the field at 28%. I won’t be going full fade, but I might be underweight. He’s massively underpriced, with the second highest Vegas bargain rating in the field and his stats check out, so this is a tough fade. But the thing is, there are a lot of other highly graded players in that range with 5-8% ownership, so I’ll pivot and hope for an MC. Additionally, Grillo is due for some putting regression and he has negative bent/poa splits.
FanDuel GPP fade: Kevin Streelman (Grade: A, A). Now here me out: Streelman is one of my favorite plays of the week, but he’s projected at almost three-times the ownership on FanDuel, compared to DraftKings. He has a better Vegas bargain rating on FD, but its not enough to warrant three-times the ownership. If you play on both sites, fire him up on DraftKings and fade on FanDuel. Best of both worlds.
Good luck, everyone!
-Nolan
