Awesemo’s 2021 Fantasy Football Sleepers, Breakouts & Busts: Running Backs

Whether you are jumping in best ball drafts repeatedly or getting set for that home league you just have to win, check out Awesemo’s Breakouts, Sleepers and Busts tool that couples with the NFL Draft Wingman. This article will break down the most undervalued/overhyped players according to the top minds at Awesemo and help give you an edge for the upcoming fantasy football season. Be sure to refresh the fantasy football draft rankings throughout the preseason, as any noticeable snap count trends, standout performances or players named as starters will influence the rankings leading up to Week 1 of the regular season. With that, let’s go over the top 2021 fantasy football breakout, sleeper, deep sleeper and bust candidates at the running back position.

Fantasy Sleepers, Breakouts & Busts: Running Backs

Breakout: Darrell Henderson (Awesemo Ranking: 29; Current ADP: 68)

The complexion of the Rams backfield completely changed one month ago when Cam Akers suffered a torn Achilles while training. Akers saw the lion’s share of carries for Sean McVay’s offense at the tail end of 2020 and looked to be in store for even more work this season. But now it is next man up for one of the Super Bowl favorites, and that man appears to be Darrell Henderson.

Henderson is far from the worst of insurance plans for the Rams, having graded as PFF’s 11th-best running back in 2020. He put up 624 yards and five touchdowns on the year while only receiving a 31% snap share yet averaged a robust 4.5 yards per carry in the process. And with Akers on the shelf and Malcolm Brown now with the Dolphins, it appears Xavier Jones is the only one who could cut into Henderson’s workload.

Most importantly for Henderson’s prospects, however, is his elite pass-protection ability (third-best grade by PFF in that category in 2020). That should secure Henderson’s role as a three-down back, as protecting newly acquired Matthew Stafford will be the highest of priorities for a team with title aspirations. At a current ADP dropping him into the late fifth/early sixth round, Henderson is still a steal in all fantasy football formats.

Sleeper: Phillip Lindsay (Awesemo Ranking: 83; Current ADP: 192)

After playing his entire high school, college and professional football career in the state of Colorado, Phillip Lindsay made his way to Houston via free agency this offseason. Having eclipsed the 1,000-yard rushing mark in his first two seasons with the Broncos, 2020 was marred by injuries and limited opportunity sharing a backfield with Melvin Gordon. While this change in scenery surely will not lead to more wins on a Texans team headed for nowhere, there is little doubt Lindsay could be extremely fantasy relevant, especially if Deshaun Watson is unwilling or unable to return to this offense.

In fact, that Texans only ran a designed run 29.4% of the time in 2020, the second-lowest recorded number by ESPN Stats & Information since 2006. Take Watson out of the equation and insert Tyrod Taylor behind center, and no question that number will have to increase exponentially. Also, early practice reports have Lindsay slotted as the first-string running back ahead of David Johnson, Mark Ingram and Rex Burkhead, which could mean the majority of snaps and carries could be in his favor. There is still a lot to be determined in this backfield, but that is what creates such a discrepancy between his current ADP and the massive upside Lindsay presents should he win the starting job. That makes him one of the better sleeper bets on the board for fantasy football purposes this season.

Deep Sleeper: Sony Michel (Awesemo Ranking: 124; Current ADP: 192)

Breakout: Damien Harris (Awesemo Ranking: 37; Current ADP: 84)

In the aftermath of Tom Brady’s departure and an abysmal 2020 campaign, absolutely no one is talking about the Patriots, as the roster on both sides of the ball is far from exceptional. But even on bad teams, there can be fantasy value to extract if knowing where to look for it. And two such pieces that could spike major upside are presumed starter Damien Harris and backup Sony Michel.

Starting with Harris, many will be shocked to know he received PFF’s second-best grade among all running backs in 2020. It is less surprising when considering his 5 yards per attempt (ninth in the NFL) despite playing in an offense helmed by Cam Newton and his limitations as a thrower. Regardless of whether it is Newton or rookie Mac Jones behind center, Harris will be given ample opportunity to be the Patriots’ main offensive catalyst in 2021, making him severely undervalued at his current ADP. Expect him, James White and Rhamondre Stevenson, a 2021 fourth-round pick, to be the three guarantees to make the Patriots Week 1 roster at the position.

As for Michel, he has been a fantasy football headache for the better part of his three NFL seasons. He has failed to eclipse 1,000 yards in a season in his time with New England and has never fully earned the trust of Bill Belichick to be a featured back in the offense. However, despite only playing in nine games last season due to injury, Michel actually performed incredibly well, racking up 5.7 yards per attempt. And with Rex Burkhead off to Houston, there is some sneaky passing game opportunity that may have opened up, even with noted pass-catching expert White still in the backfield. Whether or not Michel makes the Patriots 53-man roster is inconsequential, as he will surely land somewhere else immediately and potentially improve his situation. So going completely undrafted in most leagues, Michel could be an extremely valuable deep sleeper if the cards fall in his favor.

Bust: Devin Singletary (Awesemo Ranking: 143; Current ADP: 101)

Devin Singletary is the most fantasy-relevant running back with the largest gap between Awesemo’s rankings and current ADP. Coming off a year where a big leap in performance was expected, Singletary only managed a RB37 finish despite starting in all 16 regular-season games. Part of the dip in production was due to splitting snaps 57-43 with rookie Zack Moss, and now it would seem that split could draw even closer to a true 50-50 in 2021. That is enough for Awesemo’s rankings to steer clear of Singletary at his current ADP, as it is too high of a premium to pay for a back in a pass-first offense with only four career touchdowns in two seasons.

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