Buccaneers-Bills DFS Picks: Will Josh Allen + Stefon Diggs Vanquish Tampa Bay on TNF?! (October 26)

Thursday Night Football ushers in the Week 8 action with a matchup between the reeling Buffalo Bills and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers who will be playing four of their next five on the road. In this issue of Stokastic’s NFL DFS picks series, we’ll be providing our Buccaneers-Bills DFS picks for the Thursday Night Football Showdown slate.

Stokastic is bringing plenty of NFL DFS tools and information for all the different slates, game formats and sites. This column will provide a free analysis of the single-slate action on DraftKings and FanDuel. It includes team capsules, player rankings, comments and NFL DFS picks. There are loads of information and NFL DFS Showdown analysis to get into for both DraftKings and FanDuel on this Thursday Night slate, so check out these Buccaneers-Bills DFS picks.

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NFL DFS Showdown Picks: Buccaneers-Bills DFS Picks

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 17.0 Points

Quarterback

The Stokastic NFL DFS projections have Baker Mayfield slotted in as the QB19 on DraftKings and the QB20 on FanDuel when looking at the full Week 8 player pool. No teams are on a bye this week and all of the action will be taking place in the usual NFL venues. Week 9 will see the return of byes, as well as the first of several games taking place in Germany.

Back to tonight’s matchup, Mayfield has not been horrible, but he has not been much more than above average. That is actually not a slight as it looked like he was going to play his way out of a starting role and into that of a clipboard carrier. The Buccaneers 3-3 record is a result of both Mayfield being able to keep the offense and the clock moving for the most part and of course a stellar defensive unit.

Mayfield has topped 280 yards twice, with two multi-touchdown games. In the other four games he has three total scores and he has four consecutive games with an interception. Buffalo has an above average passing defense, though it is just shy of being elite, despite blanking both Sam Howell and Tyrod Taylor and allowing just six aerial scores in the other five games.

Running Back

Buffalo has the 13th rushing DVOA, though they have allowed five different running backs to account for more than 85 combined-yards. This includes Travis Etienne Jr. (136/48), Breece Hall (127/20), De’Von Achane (101/19), Saquon Barkley (93/5) and Rhamondre Stevenson (34/51).

Rashaad White is not on the same level as those backs, but he does have the vast majority of the Tampa Bay running back opportunities in his grasp and that volume could propel him to a useful fantasy score. The second-year back is usually on the field for 70%-to-80% of the snaps and he has 23 of the 29 running back targets, along with around 15 carries per game.

Chase Edmonds played sparingly in the first two games of the season, but he is eligible to be activated from the injured reserve and he was a full participant in practice this week as he recovers from a knee injury. That could cost White a couple of carries and maybe a target, though Ke’Shawn Vaughn is the most likely to see his small role diminish further. Vaughn and Edmonds are $600 and $200, respectively, on DraftKings, which makes them extreme punt plays.

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Wide Receivers

Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are a two-man show, with Trey Palmer popping up as the third-fiddle. Godwin is dealing with a sore neck, but he was listed as a full-participant in Wednesday’s practice, so he should be active tonight. This duo each has 49 targets on the season, with Godwin having nine red zone opportunities to the five of Evans. Of course Evans has four touchdowns and can score from anywhere on the field. Godwin is looking for his first trip to the end zone, and that could easily happen tonight.

Palmer has 18 targets, but he has made his nine receptions count with 94 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Deven Thompkins also has 18 targets, along with a touchdown and three carries. Rakim Jarrett serves as the fifth wide-out and while he typically sees the field for around a dozen snaps, he has just four targets this season.

Tight Ends

Cade Otton has been chugging along this season and by virtue of being on the field 95% of the time, he has accounted for 23 of the 30 tight end targets. His lone touchdown came back in Week 4, but he is coming off a five catch performance for 43 yards and has three games with at least three receptions. He is a viable “cash game” (H2H, 3-mans, 50-50s) play on DraftKings ($3,000), though he is more of a lottery ticket on FanDuel ($8,000) with the half-PPR scoring format.

Ko Kieft and Payne Durham round out this position for Tampa Bay, with Kieft not seeing the ball since Week 2 and Durham getting one target each of the last two games.

Defense/Special Teams

Buffalo has allowed just 10 sacks, which is the third fewest in the league, while Tampa Bay is in the middle of the pack with 18 sacks. The Bills have suffered 11 turnovers and the Buccaneers are ranked third with 13 takeaways.

Buffalo Bills: 26.5 Points

Quarterback

Buffalo is in a bit of a pickle with a 4-3 record and with two of the losses coming in the last three games. Perhaps the Bill should get a mulligan for the Week 1 overtime loss in a road game against the Jets and maybe even the loss to Jacksonville in London, after the Jaguars had already defeated the Falcons in England the week before. But losing to the Patriots, well that is no bueno – plus it none of this changes the fact that the record is only one game above .500.

Josh Allen has tallied a passing line that is similar to what we have seen from him over the last three years, though he is contributing just 21.1 rushing yards per game, which is half of what it had been in the two prior seasons. He does have four touchdowns which is still on pace f0r his typically baseline, which keeps his fantasy upside intact, it just takes a little more luck to get there.

Tampa Bay has the 14th passing DVOA and while Kirk Cousins hung 344/2/1 on the Bucs in Week 1 and Jared Goff got the for 353/2/0 in Week 6, no other quarterback has had more than 280 passing yards and the Pewter Pirates have ceded only two passing touchdowns outside of Cousins and Goff.

Allen rightfully has been assigned the highest salary in the player pool, though he will need a multi-touchdown effort to make him stand out among the better fantasy point per dollar options.

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Running Back

Tampa Bay has the 15th rushing DVOA, though they have allowed just more than 60 rushing yards to an opposing ball-carrier only one this season. Even with Damien Harris out, James Cook and Latavius Murray have been evenly sharing the snaps over the last two games. Cook has the edge, being the incumbent and also being nearly a decade younger, but Murray can contribute in all facets of the game and actually has two more red zone opportunities than his younger counterpart.

Cook has an expected baseline of around a dozen carries and a few targets, so he is going to need to be efficient or reach pay dirt to be a DFS difference-maker. He does have three games with 100-plus combined yards, along with a pair of touchdowns. Of course he is battling the passing game, Murray and his quarterback for goal-line looks, which make him just a secondary option.

Wide Receiver and Tight End

Stefon Diggs is top five in the league for targets, receptions, yards per game and touchdowns. In his most “disappointing” game, back in Week 2 against the Raiders, Diggs brought in all seven of his targets for 66 yards, thus reaching double-digit fantasy points in all formats. Enjoy!

Gabe Davis (35) does not even have half as many targets as Diggs (78), though he has at least four in all but one game. Davis is the epitome of boom or bust, as evidenced by four consecutive games with touchdowns, petering out to just four receptions for 27 yards over his last two appearances.

Dawson Knox is on the injured reserve,  so that opens up an average of four targets per game. Backup Quintin Morris (hamstring) is also out and while he has just one target this season, of course it was for a 15 yard touchdown on Sunday Night Football. It is likely that someone will be signed or activated from the practice squad, likely undrafted rookie Joel Wilson or potentially someone who was in training camp like Jace Sternberger could be rounded up.

Dalton Kincaid is a tight end, though he spends most of his time operating as a giant receiver. He is coming off a career-best eight receptions and 75 yards, though Knox being out does not have a direct impact on his production. Deonte Harty, Khalil Shakir and Trent Sherfield have just as much of a chance for increased opportunities with the passing game down one starter, though good luck identifying the “best” option among this trio prior to kickoff.

Defense/Special Teams

Tampa Bay has allowed just eight sacks through six games, which is the second fewest in the league. The Buffalo pass rush is on the opposite end of the spectrum, with the second most sacks (25) the league. The Buccaneers have just six turnovers, which is the fourth lowest mark in the league, while the Bills have 14 takeaways, trailing only the 16 by Jacksonville.

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Thursday Night Football Single-Game NFL DFS Strategy

The rankings below are best utilized for building out single-entry and three-max lineups and for head-to-head and three-man formats. They provide a nice barometer for player value. However, those taking the MME approach should remember that correlation is key. This means matching a receiver or two with a quarterback in the Captain/MVP slot. That also works conversely, pairing a Captain/MVP pass catcher with his quarterback.

Buccaneers-Bills DFS Picks Rankings

Top 10 NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Buccaneers-Bills

  1. Stefon Diggs: Should be peppered with targets and has the best chance for a receiving touchdown.
  2. Josh Allen: Lofty salary, will need a multi-touchdown game to pay off this tag.
  3. Mike Evans: Will the touchdown magic continue for Mike?
  4. Chris Godwin: should be good to go after getting in a full practice yesterday.
  5. Dalton Kincaid: Steal on FanDuel ($7,500), solid on DraftKings ($5,000).
  6. Tyler Bass: Marginal beyond 50-plus, outstanding from 40-to-49 yards (85.1%), missed only four PATs in 182 career attempts.
  7. Chase McLaughlin: Tampa is his seventh team in five seasons, 19 of 23 (82.6%) for career from beyond 50 yards.
  8. Cade Otton: Discount Dandy, better on DraftKings ($3,000) for his likely three or four targets.
  9. James Cook and Rachaad White: Mirror image situations, Cook has a slight edge with his team carrying a heavy home field advantage.
  10. Gabriel Davis: Just above the Buffalo D/ST, both have big play equity, Davis is more likely to realize his upside.

Secondary NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Buccaneers-Bills

  1. Buffalo D/ST: Interesting in a strength versus strength matchup from a turnover and sack perspective against the Bucs.
  2. Latavius Murray: Higher floor than the next section, similar ceiling to the pass-catchers, with touchdowns of course splashing the pot.
  3. Tampa Bay D/ST: Don’t sell this unit short, they would flip with the Bills if this game was in Tampa Bay.

Lottery Ticket NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Buccaneers-Bills

  1. Ke’Shawn Vaughn: Dart throw, best on DraftKings ($600), would be “cash game” viable if Edmonds remains out.
  2. Khalil Shakir, Deonte Harty and Trent Sherfield: Close eyes and click. Shakir shares kickoff return duty with Ty Johnson, Harty gets punts.
  3. Trey Palmer: Third wide-out on a team with Mayfield conducting the orchestra.
  4. Deven Thompkins: Main kick returner, gets some scheme work in the offense, for a couple looks each game.
  5. Rakim Jarrett, Ty Johnson, Ko Kieft, Payne Durham, Sean Tucker and Chase Edmonds: Minimum salary options have them in play for those building north of 100 lineups on DraftKings. Ignore on FanDuel.

Stokastic NFL DFS Tools & Tips

Looking for more NFL DFS advice? You’ve come to the right place. Sign up for our NFL DFS Premium Package for access to our scoring projections, ownership projections and our state-of-the-art NFL DFS simulation tools. If you’re a beginner, you should check out our NFL DFS quick start guide put together by one of the world’s best DFS players, Alex “Awesemo” Baker. Our Premium Package costs just $35 per week or $115 per month — or you can upgrade to our MAX package for access to post-contest sims, more lineups and VIP support for $60 per week or $199 per month.

Eric "EMac" MacPherson won the 2007 Fantasy Baseball grand prize (trip for two to the MLB All-Star game) in the Roto format on ESPN. He won again in 2008, this time in the H2H format. As one of the early adopters of daily fantasy sports, EMac has been providing content for baseball and basketball as well as both professional and college football since 2012 for a variety of websites including DraftKings Playbook, FanVice, RotoWorld, Daily Fantasy Bootcamp, and RotoGrinders. He is well into his third decade of fantasy sports and has a wealth of knowledge and experience. Follow him on Twitter @EMacDFS or contact EMac by emailing [email protected].

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