Fantasy Football Busts: Awesemo’s Top Three Do-Not-Draft Defenses

It should go without saying, no fantasy owner should be investing early picks on any defense/special teams unit. The sheer amount of volatility associated with team defenses should lead you to draft them no earlier than the second-to-last round in every draft. As you read down this article, it’ll be like a quick-and-dirty course — a CliffsNotes version of fantasy football picks you should, or rather, should not make. We’re going to be reviewing the top fantasy football busts, or, do-not-draft defenses, based on Awesemo’s expert projections and rankings, in comparison to industry consensus draft positions and rankings.

Awesemo’s Fantasy Football Busts: Do-Not-Draft Defenses (DST)

Chicago Bears

The stars aligned for the Bears in 2018, a year in which they amassed silly amounts of turnovers and fantasy points — 50-plus more fantasy points than the next-closest-scoring defense. Last season, however, they came crashing back to earth in a big way. They were as busty as they came in 2019, but people seem to be back on them in 2020. So, another round of fantasy bust could be in order.

Chicago recorded only three weeks as a top-10 fantasy-scoring defense, which was a far cry from the double-digit performance they logged in 2018. Those turnovers referenced earlier? They went from first to 22nd in the league. Granted, defenses — and turnovers in general — are a bit like kickers or putting in golf — they’re both high-variance and extremely flukey.

Of course, they’ll still have Khalil Mack leading the pass rush, though the Bears went from No. 3 in sacks in 2018 to No. 24 a season ago. Mack is undoubtedly a beast, but he can’t do it on his own. They added Robert Quinn in the offseason, which should give them a little help, but it doesn’t explain why the unit carries an ADP of 142 — especially when Awesemo’s point projection doesn’t even have them cracking the century mark.

Buffalo Bills

The Bills were thought of as a suffocating, fantasy-scoring defense from a year ago. Half of that is true. The defense was pretty great. The fantasy points, though, were not on the level of the Patriots or Steelers. Part of that is due to the fact that a mere one of their forced turnovers went the other way for a touchdown. Scoring defensive touchdowns is no easy task, but since they finished inside the top 10 in both interceptions and forced fumbles, one would assume the unit would get more than a single score out of it.

A few things come into play here for the Bills landing on the bust list, with the main one being opportunity. Yes, the Bills have myriad pieces on the defensive side of the ball that make them great, but as great as their defense is, their offense isn’t. The games in which Buffalo is leading by numerous scores will be few and far between, so the chances of mopping up on teams that are in all-out mode on offense seem slim. Fewer plays being run leads to fewer pass attempts, which leads to fewer chances for sacks, interceptions and fumbles.

Buffalo is flying off the board with an ADP of 126. The expert projections here at Awesemo have them projected as the No. 9 scoring defense, which is comparable to the Cowboys and Colts — both of which you can get nearly 100 picks later.


More Fantasy Football Busts


Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings have been one of the most consistent units under head coach Mike Zimmer the last five years, capped off by its second consecutive top-five fantasy finish last season. That will change in 2020, and they reek of being a bust.

Here is a list of the defensive pieces the Vikings lost this offseason:

It will be hard to replace the top options they lost in the secondary, especially with the NFL being such a pass-heavy league — and the departure of two strong defensive linemen to rush the passer doesn’t help either. With the amount of uncertainty surrounding what has been the Vikings’ calling card the last handful of years, it doesn’t look promising. Awesemo’s 2020 point projection for the Vikings is outside the top 10, and they’re being drafted ahead of this year’s projected top-scoring defense — the Kansas City Chiefs.


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Author
I'm a wannabe athlete whose athletic career ended after a long tenure riding the bench through JV baseball. The fantasy sports and sports betting degen side of me blossomed at age 12 when I found fantasy baseball and football, and led to a 12-year submergence into the poker scene -- I started playing "secret" cash games in my parents' basements by age 14. Luckily, I've finally found what I love to do -- write about "fake sports," which my girlfriend refers to it as, though it only took me until age 30. If you decide you like the words I write and follow me on Twitter (@nd_joyce), I apologize in advance for the copious amounts of dog photos you will see.

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