As you read down this article, it’ll be like a quick-and-dirty course — a CliffsNotes version of fantasy football picks you should, or rather, should not make. We’re going to be reviewing the top fantasy football busts or do-not-draft wide receivers based on Awesemo’s expert projections and rankings in comparison to industry-consensus draft positions and rankings. Lets’ get into some fantasy football busts at WR based off Awesemo’s projections.
Awesemo’s Fantasy Football Busts: Do-Not-Draft Wide Receivers
DeAndre Hopkins (Arizona Cardinals)
On this date a year ago, if I were to tell you Hopkins would be on a do-not-draft list, you’d probably hit the back button, say “what is he talking about?!?” and text your buddy how stupid I am. Well, we’re here. The year is 2020. We’ve experienced about 17 years in eight months due to the coronavirus pandemic. So, it only seems fair someone that as big of a name as Hopkins lands on this list. Alas, we’re here to help you find the right players to target and who to leave off your draft board.
Obviously, the biggest unknown with Hopkins this season is his change of scenery after being dealt from the Texans to the Cardinals. Kyler Murray is a nice transition away from Deshaun Watson, though it is a downtick — for now at least. No, it won’t be as bad as the year Hopkins was strapped to Brock Osweiler.
That said, it’s questionable whether Hopkins can replicate the 18-plus PPR points a game he’s averaged each of the last three years. In Arizona, Hopkins is going to have to share targets more than he ever had to in Houston. Larry Fitzgerald is in town as well as a handful of other talented young receivers. The days of the 30% target share he saw in Houston are likely gone.
As the No. 4 wide receiver off the board, and at No. 11 overall according to ADP, it’s a bit of a scary proposition given all of the unknowns. Awesemo has him just barely inside the top 15 at the position, and projects him for 12.4 points per game — which is around the likes of Robert Woods, A.J. Brown and Tyler Lockett, all of whom you can get at a much later spot in the draft.
Amari Cooper (Dallas Cowboys)
It seems every year fantasy owners invest in Cooper based on the three or four games a year he goes absolutely nuclear and carries them to a season-high point total. The hope is he will somehow replicate it over the stretch of an entire season, or at least be more consistent than just exchanging weeks of explosions and duds. The dude’s a lock for at least one 200-yard game a season — he’s that talented — but he turns into a ghost more often than owners should put up with. Prime example: In 2019, Cooper finished nearly half his games (seven) with fewer than 50 yards receiving … and he played 16 games.
One could argue that as the No. 1 WR, he faces the toughest opposing matchup, but outside of some matchups where he faced Darius Slay and Stephon Gilmore, it wasn’t all that tough. Cooper’s going to be flanked by an extremely talented receiver in Michael Gallup, and the Cowboys just added CeeDee Lamb to the mix. Target shares are changing in Dallas. Ezekiel Elliott figures to get plenty of touches, so with all those mouths to feed, Cooper might find 2020 to be difficult.
Much like Hopkins, Cooper is being drafted early — before pick 30 in most drafts. After glancing at the Awesemo rankings and projections, he’s actually one slot behind Gallup in the WR ranks and is drawing an identical projection — 11.68 fantasy points per game. It doesn’t take a genius to figure out you should leave Cooper on the board and grab Gallup nearly 50 picks later.
More Fantasy Football Busts
- Awesemo’s Do-Not-Draft QBs
- Awesemo’s Do-Not-Draft RBs
- Awesemo’s Do-Not-Draft TEs
- Awesemo’s Top Overall Busts For 2020
Deebo Samuel (San Francisco 49ers)
Samuel took a few months before he really got going in his rookie campaign with the 49ers. He did work himself into somewhat of a defined role in the offense, though. In the last eight weeks of the season, he amassed more than 80% of the team’s offensive snaps and turned into almost 700 yards and four scores. The playoff run the 49ers had may have helped brighten the Samuel shine too. San Francisco looked as if they were drawing up all sorts of ways to get the ball in Samuel’s hands and relied on him to be a play maker.
While he is a weapon, he isn’t going to jump off the page in terms of average depth of target, averaging just 7.7 yards in his first professional season. He does most of his work around the line of scrimmage and doesn’t see many targets that lead to the big plays we see with other big-time receivers. Quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo doesn’t take many chances with the ball, and the run-first offense in San Francisco is certainly a hindrance in Samuel’s value, as is the No. 1 option George Kittle.
A little insult to injury is that Samuel broke his foot in the offseason, and his head coach came out earlier this week and said it’s entirely possible he will miss some time. Samuel is the No. 147-ranked player in the Awesemo ranking system but is currently being drafted as the consensus No. 68 player — a stark difference. Given the type of offense the 49ers are wanting to run, their other options and now the injury, that seems far too soon for a guy like Samuel. Consider him a top bust candidate if that ADP doesn’t start falling.
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