Alvin Kamara projects to be one of the top five picks in fantasy drafts. While Kamara has never actually notched 1,000 yards rushing, his efficiency and pass catching keep him at the top of drafts. 2021 presents unique changes for Kamara with the retirement of Drew Brees. In an evolving offense, the question remains, will Alvin Kamara continue to produce as a top five running back? Let’s break down how the Saints’ quarterback selection impacts Kamara’s 2021 fantasy football draft rankings and value.
Fantasy Football Player Previews: Alvin Kamara
Alvin Kamara’s Production Profile
Kamara has rushed for at least 728 yards in each of his four NFL seasons. Despite the consistency, Kamara also hasn’t eclipsed 932 yards rushing in a single season. While he hasn’t displayed an elite ceiling as a rusher, this consistency is hard to find at the running back position. Kamara’s consistency also stems into the receiving game. As a receiver, Kamara has at least 81 receptions in each of his four seasons.
Kamara took his fantasy production to a new level last year, notching 932 yards rushing and 16 touchdowns rushing in 15 games. He also added a career-high 83 receptions for 756 yards and another five touchdowns through the air. In fact, Kamara has never seen fewer than 97 targets at any point in his career. While he splits the backfield with Latavius Murray, Kamara’s prowess as a receiver makes up for some of the carries he cedes.
Check out Matt Gajewski’s breakdown of Alvin Kamara in the 2021 Fantasy Football rankings and draft cheat sheet for Yahoo, ESPN and CBS leagues.
Opportunity & Efficiency
With Murray also playing significant snaps, Kamara’s opportunity looks slightly different than the other top backs. In 2020 Kamara averaged just 65% of the Saint’s snaps. He also handled just 54% of the running back carries. This time share extended into the red zone, where he handled 60% of the running back red zone carries. However, Taysom Hill threw a wrench into overall red zone carries. Expanding across positions, Kamara only managed 41.6% of the red zone work. As a pass catcher Kamara handled 75% of the targets, leading to a position-best 22.9% target share.
On top of his elite receiving ability, Kamara also produces with efficiency. One of the most elusive backs in football, Kamara’s 2.97 yards after contact per attempt ranked inside the top 20 at the position. He has also forced missed tackles at a top 12 rate each of the last two seasons despite receiving fewer carries than most backs on the list. As a receiver Kamara also paced NFL backs, with 2.19 yards per route run in 2020.
Quarterback Changes
New Orleans will undergo a seismic shift at quarterback this year. With Brees retiring, Taysom Hill and Jameis Winston will battle for the starting job. Winston reportedly has a slight edge at this point, but the battle could swing either way. While most consider Winston a downgrade, this point may be overstated. Saints running backs accounted for 113 receptions in 2020. Under Winston in 2019 Buccaneers running backs caught 84 balls. However, Winston threw to the likes of Dare Ogunbowale, Ronald Jones II and Peyton Barber. Kamara presents a significant upgrade over that group.
As for Hill, he started four games during a Brees’ injury last season. With Hill at the helm, Kamara’s target average dropped from 7.1 per game to 4.0. While a small sample size, the Saints pass rate also dropped from 53% to 48% in Hill’s four starts. Passing at the fourth-lowest rate in football during that span, Hill only averaged 208.5 yards passing per game. It appears Kamara could be looking at a downgrade in pass volume either way, but Winston is still the preferred option.
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As for competition, Kamara may be forced into an elevated role as a receiver. The Saints lost Emmanuel Sanders and Jared Cook to free agency this offseason. Together the pair vacated 98 targets without a logical replacement. Kamara already played 21.4% of his snaps in the slot or out wide in 2020. Behind Michael Thomas, the Saints project to rely on Trequan Smith and a slew of seventh-round picks and undrafted free agents.
It is possible the Saints will rely on Kamara more as a rusher in 2021 as well. The Saints already ran the 10th-most plays in football (65.6) and passed at the fifth-lowest rate (53.1%). New Orleans returns all five starting offensive linemen up front, including studs Terron Armstead and Ryan Ramczyk. As a unit Pro Football Focus ranked New Orleans the fourth-best offensive line in football.
Bottom Line
From a fantasy football perspective, Kamara still deserves consideration at the top of drafts. In best ball drafts on Underdog Fantasy, Kamara currently comes off the board with an ADP of 5.1, just behind Saquon Barkley. With Barkley presenting injury concerns and Derrick Henry‘s lack of pass game involvement, Kamara still has a case as a top-three back. While many will discount his role in the Winston/Hill-led offense, Kamara’s reliability as a pass catcher keeps him squarely inside the top five picks in fantasy drafts.
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