Saquon Barkley enters his fourth season with the New York Giants. After bursting onto the scene as a rookie, Barkley has now been injured in back-to-back seasons. The workload when healthy warrants a top-five selection in fantasy drafts, but Barkley’s durability raises questions moving forward. With Christian Mccaffrey, Dalvin Cook, Derrick Henry and Alvin Kamara also competing for top-five status, just where should Saquon Barkley be coming off the board in your 2021 fantasy football draft rankings in Yahoo, CBS and ESPN leagues?
Fantasy Football Player Previews: Saquon Barkley
Saquon Barkley’s Production Profile
Barkley displayed elite running back production in his rookie season. He notched 1,307 yards rushing and 11 touchdowns on 261 carries while adding 91 catches for another 721 yards and four touchdowns on 121 targets. Doubling down in 2019, Barkley recorded another 1,003 yards rushing on 217 carries while catching 52 balls for 438 yards on 73 targets. This was despite Barkley missing three games and the majority of another with a high ankle sprain.
Moving forward to 2020, Barkley missed his third straight 1,000-yard rushing season due to injury. Appearing in just two games, Barkley tore his ACL and meniscus, ending his season. While Barkley’s injury occurred In Week 2 last year, he is still expected to be limited throughout training camp and potentially into the start of the regular season, according to ESPN’s Jordan Raanan.
Check out Matt Gajewski’s breakdown of Saquon Barkley in the 2021 Fantasy Football rankings and draft cheat sheet for Yahoo, ESPN and CBS leagues.
Opportunity Share
Barkley has missed time during the last two seasons, but he continues to receive elite opportunity. In 2019, Barkley played on 83.6% of the Giants offensive snaps while handling 90% of the running back carries and over 74% of the running back targets. This opportunity extended into the red zone, where Barkley received 73.7% of the carries and 64% of the targets as well. He receives elite opportunity due to his incredible efficiency. In his first two seasons, Barkley ranked top 10 in yards after contact per attempt. Barkley averaged over 3.2 yards after contact in both seasons and forced 82 combined missed tackles. In that span, only Henry, Chris Carson, Nick Chubb and Ezekiel Elliott forced more missed tackles.
2021 Fantasy Football Expectations
In addition to the rumors emerging from the Giants beat, New York also added numerous backs to their roster this offseason. They lost Wayne Gallman to free agency and signed Devontae Booker to a two-year, $6 million deal. They also added Corey Clement in free agency and drafted Arizona’s Gary Brightwell in the sixth round. Booker looks most likely to handle an elevated workload in Barkley’s place; he carried 93 times for 423 yards last year. Booker also added 17 receptions on 21 targets as the third-down back for Las Vegas. Either way, the numerous additions to the backfield suggest that Barkley may begin the season on a snap count.
As for the offensive environment, offensive coordinator Jason Garrett also raises concerns; the Giants ranked 26th in pass attempts per game (32.3) and 16th in pass rate (58.7%). Quarterback Daniel Jones also displayed very little growth in his second season. Jones’ 62.5% completion percentage ranked 31st and his 6.1 adjusted yards per attempt ranked 30th. Combined with his propensity for turnovers, this offense leaves much to be desired under uninspiring offensive coordinator Jason Garrett.
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Barkley’s receiving stats also declined under Jones in 2019. While Barkley has displayed elite receiving ability, his 438 yards receiving in 2019 finished 10th overall. Under Eli Manning in 2018, Barkley ranked third among running backs with 721 yards receiving. This change was also reflected in target share, dropping from 21.1% in 2018 to 14.8% in 2019. While these numbers are strong for a running back, Barkley looks less likely to approach McCaffrey or even Kamara as a receiver this year.
As for his rushing expectation, the offensive line remains a major issue. 2020 first-round pick Andrew Thomas struggled at left tackle, while Nate Solder projects to play right tackle after opting out last year. On the interior, some combination of Nick Gates, Will Hernandez, Shane Lemieux and Zach Fulton project to start. All graded below average by PFF, meaning Barkley may struggle to find running lanes again in 2021. While management continues to inject offensive skill players like Kenny Golladay and Kadarius Toney into the offense, Barkley may struggle to find running lanes behind PFF’s lowest-ranked offensive line.
Bottom Line
Between a potential slow start and questionable supporting cast around him, Barkley presents more concerns than the other top running backs. The Giants could be looking at another sub-.500 season. While this could help Barkley’s receiving floor, he may not have as much scoring upside as the other elite backs. He is coming off the board with an ADP of 4.1 in Underdog Fantasy best ball drafts, so his ADP is efficient. Kamara and Elliot come off the board just after Barkley, creating an interesting dilemma. With both projected to play on superior offenses, Barkley looks like a potential fade, even as the RB4 in best ball leagues.
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