Knowing the ins and outs of the NFL schedule can give you a significant edge in your fantasy football league. At Awesemo, we’ve developed a strength of schedule tool that provides projections throughout the season, including the fantasy playoffs in Weeks 15 and 16. Let’s take a look at three quarterbacks who have particularly tough schedules during that span and discuss how that could impact their production. All projections are based on half point per reception scoring. Let’s get into some fantasy football rankings playoff downgrades based on strength of schedule.
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Fantasy Football Rankings: Strength of Schedule Playoff Downgrades
Gardner Minshew, Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars didn’t intend to have Minshew start any games last season, but all that changed when Nick Foles went down with an injury Week 1. Minshew played well in that game in relief, throwing for 275 yards, two touchdowns and one interception against the Chiefs. He followed that up by throwing for 1,004 yards, seven touchdowns and no interceptions across his first four starts. Although he did eventually have some rough patches, his overall season with 3,271 yards, 21 touchdowns and six interceptions had to be considered a success.
Now that Foles is no longer in the picture, Minshew is set to start for the Jaguars once again. He’s projected to average 14.51 fantasy points per game during the regular season, but that number is projected to decline by 7.64% to 13.4 points per contest in Weeks 15 and 16. The Jaguars’ Week 15 matchup against the Ravens on the road is simply brutal. Facing the Bears at home won’t be as daunting of a task in Week 16, but they can still cause havoc in the backfield with Khalil Mack and Robert Quinn in the fold. Minshew is Awesemo’s No. 1 playoff downgrade based off his fantasy football rankings, strength of schedule tool.
Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
Prescott took his production to the next level in 2019. His first three seasons were respectable, throwing for at least 3,300 yards and 22 touchdowns in each campaign. The Cowboys did limit his attempts, though, since he averaged no more than 32.9 per contest in any of those seasons. That all changed last year when he averaged 37.3 attempts a game. The end result was him compiling 4,902 yards, 30 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. He also chipped in 277 yards and three touchdowns on the ground.
Heading into this season, Prescott is projected to average 19.62 fantasy points per game, which ranks fourth in our projections behind Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes and Cam Newton. However, he’s projected to average 18.38 points during the fantasy playoffs, which is a decrease of 6.32% . The Cowboys will at least get to play at home in Weeks 15 and 16, but they have tough matchups against the 49ers and Eagles, respectively. The 49ers only allowed 281.8 total yards per game, which was the second-fewest in the league. They also generated 27 total takeaways, which was the sixth-best mark. Finally, their 48 sacks were tied for the fifth-highest mark. Prescott is Awesemo’s No. 2 playoff downgrade based off his fantasy football rankings, strength of schedule tool.
Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints
Entering 2019, Brees had played in at least 15 games in each of his 13 seasons with the Saints. However, a thumb injury would end up costing him five games last year. Still, he managed to throw 27 touchdown passes in what was once again one of the most dangerous offenses in the NFL. He also only had four interceptions, leaving him with a total of just 17 picks across the last three seasons combined. To put that into perspective, his new backup Jameis Winston had 30 interceptions for the Buccaneers last season alone.
Despite his age, Brees is still in line for another productive season with wide receiver Michael Thomas now gaining some support with the addition of Emmanuel Sanders. Brees is expected to average 18.38 fantasy points per game for the season, but that number is projected to drop by 5.69% to 17.33 points per game during the fantasy playoffs. The Saints will play the Chiefs and Vikings, two teams who ranked inside the top-seven in the league in terms of fewest points allowed per game last season. Brees is Awesemo’s No. 3 playoff downgrade based off his fantasy football rankings, strength of schedule tool.
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