Awesemo fantasy football is finally here. And with it, we’ve got loads of free articles and videos, based of off Awesemo’s industry leading, data driven projections. In this article Kyle Dvorchak dives into some of his favorite wide receivers, running backs and tight ends for your fantasy football drafts, based off his Grown-Ass Man (GAM) metric. What is a Grown-Ass Man? Film-grinders will point to something like this video as the definition of a GAM.
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Grown-Ass Man Rankings for Fantasy Football Drafts
D.K. Metcalf's first career postseason touchdown was a good one.@dkm14 | @Seahawks | #NFLPlayoffs
(by @GenesisUSA) pic.twitter.com/3Ii6VWU2Le
— NFL (@NFL) January 6, 2020
They wouldn’t be wrong either. However, I can’t tell the difference between a post route and a zone blitz, so the answer needs to be quantitative. For receivers, a GAM is able to record multiple games of 150 yards. This is true domination of an opponent even when they know what’s about to hit them. So which receiver is the most grown of them all?
Wide Receiver
The GAM GOAT
This journey started on Twitter with a follow-up to a tweet on Calvin Johnson‘s rate of 150-yard games. As it turns out, Julio Jones might be the most grown-ass man to ever grace the NFL.
Bad news fokls. @pahowdy was right for asking about Julio. With grown👏ass👏man👏 games defined by >150 receiving yards. Julio Jones at 11.9% is the true G👏A👏M👏 https://t.co/A1Jz645JEo pic.twitter.com/GXXh0dMWDX
— Kyle Dvorchak (@kyletweetshere) July 30, 2020
Jerry Rice only has as “low” of a rate as he does because he played past the age of 40. His count of 30 games with over 150 yards is 13 more than Terrell Owens, who has the second most. Antonio Brown is currently an unsigned free agent with an eight-game suspension looming. However, if he does return to pro football, don’t forget how special of a player he has been.
What about active players only, though? It’s nice to remember just how prolific Rice was, but that doesn’t help anyone win fantasy titles now.
More Fantasy Football Rankings
Current Receivers
This is the rate of 150-yard games among active players (minimum of four GAM games to qualify).
A few interesting names come up here.
T.Y. Hilton has blown up in over 10% of his career games, but last year’s 10-game, 501-yard outing has fantasy players down on him. Philip Rivers needs to stop throwing ducks and Hilton needs to stay healthy, but the speedster at least has a level of weekly upside that’s uncommon.
DeSean Jackson‘s rate of 6.45% is mind-blowing, but his cost in fantasy drafts is not. Jackson regularly gets drafted outside of the top 50 receivers but has a clear path to volume. Marquise Goodwin has opted out of the 2020 season, and Alshon Jeffery may begin the season on the PUP list. There’s no reason not to get him on every roster with a final pick.
Sammy Watkins coming in so close to Tyreek Hill is unsettling. Four of his five GAM games came from 2015 to 2016, but in Week 1 of 2019 he was still flashing the upside that got him drafted fourth overall in 2014. He dropped 198 yards and three scores with Hill sidelined for much of the Chiefs’ game versus Jacksonville. He’s strictly a name to know for DFS, as Mecole Hardman is primed to surpass him as the No. 2 receiver in Kansas City this year.
Odell Beckham was once hailed as the greatest receiver in the league. He’s also brushed up against 150 yards on numerous occasions, barely missing the cutoff on numerous occasions. For reference, a 145 cutoff would only give Mike Evans one extra game, tying the two at 10 apiece. Beckham’s GAM rate would be 13.3%. If Baker Mayfield can right the ship in Cleveland, Beckham will smash.
Running Back
RB GAM Differences
While nearly every receiver in the league accumulates yards solely through passing — even Hill gains no GAM games by counting rushing stats for receiver — running backs can easily get there through the air and on the ground. A GAM game for a back is counted as 150 yards from scrimmage and active backs needed five games to qualify in order to get a selective list of elite players.
The GAM rates for running backs are much higher because getting to 150 is easier for them. However, there are still only six active backs with more than two games of 200 yards. Adrian Peterson and Frank Gore count but aren’t likely to ever manage that feat again. That means 150 yards remains the cutoff.
Current Running Backs
Christian McCaffrey is about as dominant as one would expect, maybe even more so.
Ezekiel Elliott is surprisingly close to McCaffrey. He is currently being drafted as the RB3 after McCaffrey and Saquon Barkley. His 25% GAM rate buries Barkley’s rate of 13.8%. Barkley is the clear favorite in the minds of fantasy drafters, while Elliott has displayed a massive edge in weekly ceiling.
Alvin Kamara is seriously hampered by his overall lack of volume. He has never carried the ball 20 times in a game with 50 matches under his belt. Kamara’s receiving value is immense, but his overall fantasy value is derived largely from touchdown production. Given the fluky nature of touchdowns, his projection as a top back is much more fragile than the likes of Elliott or Dalvin Cook.
Derrick Henry was just a boy until he grew into a man in the second half of 2019. Four of his seven career GAM games came in November and December. Ryan Tannehill‘s presence did wonders for Henry, and if the veteran passer comes back to earth, it could be tragic for Henry’s outlook.
Tight End
TE GAM Differences
While receivers enjoy the luxury of prancing around downfield, tight ends are often tasked with blocking freakishly athletic defensive ends and linebackers. They combine the skills of a wideout and a tackle making them the most grown-ass of all the men.
George Kittle with a MAN'S block 😤
(via @49ers)pic.twitter.com/DqhQtLuZKv
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) December 15, 2019
However, their blocking commitments often take away from potential fantasy stats. This means that the cutoff of 150 yards had to be lowered to 100. This makes them no less grown, just ask George Kittle. The minimum number of GAM games was again pushed back to three to get a concise list of players to work with.
Current Fantasy Football Tight Ends
Travis Kelce and Kittle are the only tight ends worth paying up for in drafts if you care about boom weeks.
Darren Waller is credited for 38 career games, but he had four starts before the 2019 season when he started in all 16 contests. Waller never recorded 100 yards in an entire season prior to last year meaning his rate is greatly skewed (as are many players’, admittedly). His GAM rate using only 2019 numbers is an absurd 31.25%. He won’t keep that rate up as Henry Ruggs joins the fold along with extra playtime for Hunter Renfrow, but he was insanely productive last year.
Kyle Rudolph and his 2.3% GAM rate should never be rostered by a fantasy team trying to win.
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