In this series, we’ll look at a mock draft conducted from each draft slot and break down the best choice and some alternatives at each selection. We’ll look at the individual player selection and how each player fits into the overall roster construction of the team, and then look at what selection Awesemo’s rankings would have made. The mock is for a three-receiver, two-back, half-PPR league. Here we look at winning your fantasy football draft with the 11th overall pick.
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Fantasy Football Mock Draft from the 11th Overall Pick
Mock Draft 1.11 Selection: Davante Adams
Alternative: Josh Jacobs
No team has a worse receiver room after their No. 1 option the Green Bay. Neither Allen Lazard nor Marquez Valdes-Scantling were able to top 500 yards last year despite Adams missing time. They also lost Geronimo Allison and Jimmy Graham in free agency. The duo accounted for 115 targets last year. With Devin Funchess opting out, the team has added no viable receiving threats this offseason.
All of this leads to Adams potentially leading the NFL in target share and challenging Michael Thomas as the league’s top fantasy wideout. At the end of the first round, Adams is the only other receiver Awesemo’s rankings would select inside the top 12 picks.
Mock Draft 2.02 Selection: Aaron Jones
Jones may experience a drop in touchdowns after scoring 19 last year, but he’s still a back we can safely assume will be more efficient than most players. He’s finished top 15 in yards per carry and top 10 in yards per touch in each of the past two seasons. Jones leverages agility and speed like few backs can and is a great first running back to get.
Jones was the best option available, and he also gives this team a large investment in Green Bay. The Awesemo rankings don’t love Aaron Rodgers, but this team has already placed a massive bet on the Packers. If it’s going to work, Rodgers will have to outperform his ADP, locking him onto this roster at some point in the draft.
Mock Draft 3.11 Selection: Calvin Ridley
Alternative: T.Y. Hilton
At 30 years old, Julio Jones showed some small cracks in his game last year. His 8.9 yards per target was a career-low and he averaged “just” 92.9 yards per game, his second-worst mark over the past seven years. He’s far from done, but the older Jones gets, the more Ridley will take over in the league’s most pass-heavy offense.
Awesemo’s rankings love running backs in the middle rounds, but that means every combination possible has been covered in the previous 10 installments of this series. For the final two mock drafts, we’ll work on creating the perfect modified zero-RB and zero-RB rosters using Awesemo’s projections.
Mock Draft 4.02 Selection: Tyler Lockett
Alternative: T.Y. Hilton
Lockett’s season-long stat lines were ruined by a stretch of games he ineffectively limped onto the field during.
Weeks 1-9 WR5 👀 in Fppg
➡️ hospitalized after wk 10 w/ a hematoma
➡️ not declared fully healthy again until wk 15
➡️ Weeks 11-14 WR99, 43 yds or less in every game
Weeks 15-17 WR20 in Fppg
STOP UNDERVALUING LOCKETT!!!pic.twitter.com/NjfCkfEoRn
— Derek Brown (@DBro_FFB) August 11, 2020
When he’s healthy, Lockett’s connection with Russell Wilson is free money at the end of the fourth round.
The structural underpinnings that zero RB employs make sense–avoiding early-round busts and reaping the rewards when they occur– but the strategy does necessitate giving up some running back values in the middle rounds. Leagues that give a full point per receptions minimize this gap by a large margin.
Mock Draft 5.11 Selection: T.Y. Hilton
Hilton struggled with injuries in 2019, and the quarterback play did him no favors either. Jacoby Brissett finished 28th in yards per attempt (6.6) while Philip Rivers was 13th (7.8) in Los Angeles. With Rivers now in Indy, Hilton will get an infusion of health and accuracy, turning around his fantasy bottom line.
Awesemo’s rankings have the past three picks ranked in a different order (Hilton, Ridley and then Lockett), but they are typically drafted in this order by ADP. Siding with the order of ADP but still selecting them ahead of their normal draft slots was the best way to maximize the odds of getting all three or at least two of the three.
Mock Draft 6.02 Selection: Michael Gallup
Alternative: Dak Prescott
Removing Week 2, when he tore his meniscus and recorded a season-low snap share, Gallup averaged 4.6 catches and 79.9 yards per game. Those marks are both near or better than fellow Cowboys wideout Amari Cooper posted last year. Dallas has no lead wideout or two top dogs, and Gallup is one of them.
Prescott would have been a fine pick here, but this team is already so reliant on the Green Bay offense that there’s no reason not to wait for Rodgers a few rounds down the road.
Mock Draft 7.11 Selection: Will Fuller
Fuller might be the MVP of this series for getting drafted the most. Fuller has topped 100 yards in 27.7% of his games over the past two years. When he’s healthy, he is capable of sheer dominance. With DeAndre Hopkins now in Arizona, Fuller’s dominance has a chance to show up on a weekly basis.
Fuller will likely be the last receiver taken on this roster, as there are a handful of good values remaining at running back before the position gets thin. The ultimate upside receiver is a great way to round out the wideout room for this team.
Mock Draft 8.02 Selection: James White
Alternative: J.K. Dobbins
Cam Newton has a reputation as a no check-downs gunslinger, but that’s unlikely to be true. The 2018 season was one of Newton’s best. He posted a 67.9% completion rate while dumping the ball off to Christian McCaffrey 124 times. If that is the version of Newton Bill Belichick unlocks, White will continue to rack up receptions in a seamless transition.
Dobbins undoubtedly has more upside than White but if he doesn’t own a meaningful role for the first half of the season, this team would be taking a lot of losses because of weak RB2 scoring. White’s high floor makes him a great choice here.
Mock Draft 9.10 Selection: Aaron Rodgers
Alternative: Tevin Coleman
Rodgers isn’t the MVP-caliber passer he was in 2014, but he can still produce week-winning numbers in spurts. He finished as a top-three quarterback in four games last year. That’s more often than Patrick Mahomes and as many times as Russell Wilson.
Based on data from hundreds of drafts, Rodgers makes it here in 66% of drafts, which is why this team had no problem waiting to pull the trigger on him. Even if he does outperform his draft slot, reaching on him in the early eighth round would vaporize much of that value.
Mock Draft 10.02 Selection: Tevin Coleman
From Week 1 to Week 12, Coleman carried the ball 115 times for 448 while adding 164 yards through the air. That works out to 1,088 yards on a full season. Kyle Shanahan’s plan was always for Coleman to get the bulk of the backfield work in San Francisco. Injuries changed that plan, but it could easily come to fruition in 2020.
This draft saw tight ends consistently taken ahead of ADP. When that happens, unless there are only a few viable tight ends left, let other teams reach while you scoop up value at other positions.
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