The Data Deep Dive: Week 15 NFL DFS Opportunity, Efficiency, Target Share + Top Stacks

The Week 15 NFL DFS Data Deep Dive looks into the advanced metrics you need to know in order to make informed daily fantasy football decisions. Matt Savoca takes a look behind the curtain of his process, delivering the visualizations and proprietary statistics along with some quick-hitter thoughts that he uses to prepare for his weekly Main Slate Matchups column, published every Thursday right here on Awesemo.com. Let’s dig into the data from Week 14 as we look ahead to Week 15 NFL DFS picks for the daily fantasy football season and NFL DFS slates on DraftKings and FanDuel.

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Week 15 Deep Dive: DraftKings + FanDuel NFL DFS Picks

Note: All charts reflect data from the past eight weeks of play. Click graphs to enlarge.

Team Efficiency

nfl dfs expected points
The above two charts are two measures of team efficiency. The left chart measures offensive per-drive ability on the Y-axis and defensive per-drive ability on the X-axis. The right chart measures per-play ability. Both graphs use the expected points model popularized by the nflfastR data package.
  • Despite all the Week 14 hype in Philadelphia going to Jalen Hurts in his first victory as a starter, it’s the defense that’s playing like an above-average unit. The Eagles rank above-average in both per-drive and per-play efficiency on defense, while the offense is still playing subpar football overall.
  • Though they haven’t had a terrible season by any stretch, based on these two charts it appears the Raiders have actually underperformed as a team compared to their per-drive and per-play efficiency. They’re clumped with locked-in playoff teams such as Buffalo (on the left side chart), Kansas City, Seattle and Tennessee (on the right chart). Needless to say, the Raiders aren’t on those teams’ levels yet.
  • Don’t sleep on Arizona, who’s likely better than their record implies. The division they play within is certainly a factor, but a team that’s above average on both sides of the ball on a per-play and per-drive basis should absolutely be a playoff team, and they’re currently hanging onto the seventh seed by a thread. The Cardinals still have a chance, but their schedule down the stretch is incredibly tough.
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Team Aggressiveness

nfl dfs fantasy football
The above chart measures team aggressiveness. The X-axis is Air Yards per second (Air Yards per Play/Seconds per Play) as a measure of pace and deep passing aggressiveness. True Neutral Early-Down Pass Rate (Y-axis) measures the number of times a team chooses to pass the ball on first or second down while within one possession. The raw number is fitted to its historical mean by using empirical Bayes estimation. This chart updates on Wednesdays when FootballOutsiders update their pace data.
  • Despite a massive dip in production in 2020, Matt Ryan still leads a pass-first, aggressively paced offense. And yet the Falcons continue to struggle as an offense, particularly without Julio Jones. Could this be the start of Ryan’s decline as a player
  • Just because they lost their best offensive weapon in Will Fuller, don’t expect the Texans, playing only for pride at the end of this season, to take their foot off the gas offensively. With a horrific defense (that just lost another starter in the secondary), we’ll continue targeting Texans’ games as massive shootout potential until season’s end.

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DraftKings + FanDuel NFL DFS Picks: Quarterback Efficiency

nfl dfs draftkings fanduel qbs
This graphic measures quarterback efficiency in terms of their ability to use their given drives to consistently score points. True Drive Success (Y-axis) rate uses empirical Bayes estimation to create a fitted version of raw drive success rate, which is raw scoring drives divided by total offensive drives. Expected Points Added per drive (X-axis) is a measure of a player’s ability to provide more (or less) than the expected points, based on nflfastR’s expected points model, on a given set of plays. It is normalized to a value between zero (worst) and one (best). This graphic measures quarterback efficiency in terms of their ability to use their given drives to consistently score points. True Drive Success (Y-axis) rate uses empirical Bayes estimation to create a fitted version of raw drive success rate, which is raw scoring drives divided by total offensive drives. Expected Points Added per drive (X-axis) is a measure of a player’s ability to provide more (or less) than the expected points, based on nflfastR’s expected points model, on a given set of plays. It is normalized to a value between zero (worst) and one (best).
  • Yes, Ryan Fitzpatrick has the gunslinger reputation as a quarterback, but Tua Tagovailoa has been the more efficient quarterback over the last eight weeks. Tagovailoa ranks just below league average in per-drive efficiency but has been excellent on a per-play basis. The Dolphins’ future looks incredibly bright.
  • The Jaguars finally made the correct decision and benched Mike Glennon for Gardner Minshew. With Minshew finally healed from a thumb injury (which I believe affected his accuracy more than he let-on), expect him to continue his above-average per-drive efficiency from earlier this season. Minshew, despite the ups and downs this year, has been Jacksonville’s most efficient quarterback and gives the Jaguars the best chance to win.
  • Speaking of Glennon, the player who’s been most similar to Glennon over the last eight weeks is Matt Ryan. Ryan, who’s operated with a skill position group that’s been far from full strength, has had nearly as disappointing a 2020 season as Carson Wentz, though Ryan’s per-play efficiency still ranks slightly above average compared to the rest of the league.
  • Patrick Mahomes three-interception day knocked him into the second tier of quarterbacks, with Kirk Cousins, Russell Wilson, Ryan Tannehill and Philip Rivers (about whom we waxed poetically in this column last week), leaving Aaron Rodgers as the elite quarterback based on per-drive and per-play efficiency. Especially with the Packers reclaiming the No. 1 seed in the NFC, the MVP race has turned back into a two-horse contest between Rodgers and Mahomes.

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DraftKings + FanDuel NFL DFS Picks: Skill Player Opportunities

nfl dfs fantasy football week 15
True Weighted Opportunity Share is a variant of Weighted Opportunity Rating, a metric created by 538’s Josh Hermsmeyer to combine a player’s share of team targets and share of team air yards into a single metric. True Weighted Opportunity share uses empirical Bayes estimation to estimate a player’s ‘true’ target share, based on the team’s sample of targets, and a player’s ‘true’ air yard share, based on the team’s sample size of air yards. As the season progresses, the error bars, which represent the 95% credible interval for the metric, will shrink, indicating more certainty in the model. Raw weighted opportunity rating is indicated by the red dots.
  • Mark Andrews has leaped T.J. Hockenson in true weighted opportunity share, making Andrews the third-highest-opportunity tight end in the league. Andrews should be considered one of the best plays at the position, not just in DFS down the stretch, but in season-long and dynasty leagues as well. He’s a great offseason target in any kind of keeper league.
  • D.J. Chark is one of just a handful of receivers averaging 100 air yards per game and ranks top 20 in true weighted opportunity share, but his production doesn’t match the opportunity at all. That has a chance to change with Minshew back under center in Week 15. Don’t give up on Chark just yet this year. The sky’s once again the limit for him in 2021.
  • Fantasy gamers need to take note that Tyreek Hill is being used like a true No. 1 wideout. Hill now ranks second in the NFL among wideouts in true weighted opportunity share. Considering Hill has had some of the best per-target efficiency in the NFL since he came into the league, he could wind up being the most valuable wide receiver south of Green Bay for the final weeks of the regular season.

DraftKings + FanDuel NFL DFS Picks: High-Value Opportunities

nfl dfs quality opportunity receivers
Quality Opportunities and Quality Opportunity Share are measures of high-value usage for fantasy football. A target, on average, is worth significantly more than a non-goal-line rush in any type of scoring system that uses point per reception, so Quality Opportunities combine targets and goal-line rushes into one high-upside opportunity metric. An advanced version of the metric also includes light-front carries and only on-target (catchable) targets. The chart will be updated as the data becomes available. True Quality Opportunity Share measures the player’s percentage of team Quality Opportunities and fits it to a historical mean using empirical Bayes estimation.
nfl dfs week 15 running back quality opportunity goalline rushes targets
This chart breaks down running back quality opportunities into it’s two main components: targets (the first part of each player’s bar) and goalline carries (the second part of the bar). The chart on the left ranks players by number of quality opportunities per game, while the char on the right ranks players by their share of team quality opportunities in games that they played.
  • The Buccaneers must not have been impressed with Leonard Fournette’s efficiency, because they’ve quietly given Fournette the most valuable opportunities among all Tampa Bay running backs when he’s been active. Expect Fournette’s ranking to drop precipitously as other Tampa Bay backs get Fournette’s squandered workload.
  • Don’t sleep on Kenyan Drake for Week 15 either. Drake now ranks in the top 10 in quality opportunities per game and just outside the top 10 in quality opportunity share for a playoff team with above-average per-drive efficiency. Drake should have plenty of touchdown upside for the team’s final three regular-season games, and could be one to target in DraftKings and FanDuel for the next couple of games.
  • Yes, Diontae Johnson has had a problem with drops this year, but the bottom line is that a skill player needs immense talent to earn consistent targets (even ones he drops), and Johnson ranks second in the league in total quality opportunities (targets plus goal line rushes). The Steelers’ offense is better with him on the field, and the drops can be corrected. Pittsburgh needs to stay the course with their young star.
  • Though the production hasn’t been consistent, Austin Ekeler continues to get utilized like Christian McCaffrey when looking at his quality opportunity. Ekeler and McCaffrey are the only player’s averaging more than eight quality opportunities per game. They’re both averaging over 12. Ekeler is always viable in both formats on DraftKings and FanDuel.
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Condensed Passing Offenses

nfl dfs stacks opportunity receivers week 15
The condensed offenses chart uses True Weighted Opportunity Share (see above) to find passing attacks that are focused on distributing significant pass volume to their top two or three play makers. The width of the bars represents each team’s relative pass volume, measured by comparing raw passes per game and raw air yards per game. Wider bars represent higher-volume pass offenses. When used in tandem with identifying fantasy-friendly future game scripts, the condensed offenses chart can help fantasy football players make informed decisions about theoretical variations in volume or receiver stacks to target. As an example using the chart above, a lineup with Adam Thielen should expect to capture roughly 33% of the Vikings’ passing game. Alternatively, if one were to predict that Thielen to see less volume than he did in previous weeks, according to this chart the next reasonable assertion would be that Justin Jefferson (using the bar chart on the left) and then Irv Smith (using the bar chart on the right) would be in line to receive a bulk of that opportunity.
  • Mahomes seems to be funneling even more of the Chiefs’ (massive) passing volume to his elite weapons, Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce. Mahomes, Hill and Kelce will be the highest-upside stack on DraftKings and FanDuel in the NFL in every game they play for the rest of 2020. Always an option for Week 15.
  • Hats off to Rashard Higgins (despite two fumbles in the heinous safety on the final play of this week’s Monday Night Football), who has emerged as Baker Mayfield’s 1B since the injury to Odell Beckham. The duo of Landry and Higgins now rank top 12 in true weighted opportunity share despite the Browns still leaning towards the run.
  • Because the passing volume is so minuscule (indicated by the thinness of the bars), seeing the Patriots in the top two in the Top Duos Chart (on the left) and Top Trios Chart (on the right) is a bit of a misnomer. While it’s nice to see the passing offense consolidated, these receivers are still incredibly thin plays week to week.

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DraftKings + FanDuel NFL DFS Picks: Bell Cow Backs

nfl dfs running backs fanduel draftkings elusiveness avoided tackles
The RB elusivness chart is a measure of running back effectiveness over usage-time (total touches). Any players who appear above the blue shaded area are outperforming the historical trendline for the position, while players below the line are underperforming compared to their historical counterparts. Each season, only a few backs emerge from the pack and shift towards the top-right of the chart. These backs should be considered the true “workhorse” NFL backs and can be used as a starting point for identifying cash-game “locks” at the running back position.
  • It hasn’t resulted in massive numbers, but Todd Gurley continues to outperform expectations in the elusiveness category. Even after 200 touches this season, Gurley’s 38 avoided tackles rank well above expected. He needs his reps managed somewhat, but Gurley still has some gas left in the tank.
  • It’s time to start talking about David Montgomery as a top-five running back in the NFL this season. From an elusiveness standpoint, Montgomery has out-grown his “plodder” reputation and ranks among the best backs in the league in avoided tackles versus historical expectation.
nfl dfs fanduel draftkings matchups ratings ranks
The PFF Net Advantage Chart measures personnel matchups with distinct advantages or disadvantages versus their upcoming opponent. Each graph represents a distinct “phase” of the game for which PFF grades teams. The “Net Advantage” is a comparison scaled version of each team grade to their opponent’s comparable scaled defensive grade. As an example, “Pass Block Advantage” is calculated by determining the difference between an Offense’s team pass-block grade versus their opponent’s defensive pass-rush grade. Overall Advantage is a comparison of a team’s overall grade versus their opponent’s overall grade. “Composite Advantage” is a weighted combination of all other advantages, with greater weight given towards passing advantages. Only advantages/disadvantages with a standard deviation above 1, or below -1 are shown. All non-pictured personnel matchups can be considered a toss-up. These grades do not account for injuries.

PFF Grade Net Advantages

The PFF Net Advantage Chart measures personnel matchups with distinct advantages or disadvantages versus their upcoming opponent. Each graph represents a distinct “phase” of the game for which PFF grades teams. The “Net Advantage” is a comparison scaled version of each team grade to their opponent’s comparable scaled defensive grade. As an example, “Pass Block Advantage” is calculated by determining the difference between an Offense’s team pass-block grade versus their opponent’s defensive pass-rush grade. Overall Advantage is a comparison of a team’s overall grade versus their opponent’s overall grade. “Composite Advantage” is a weighted combination of all other advantages, with greater weight given towards passing advantages. Only advantages/disadvantages with a standard deviation above 1 or below -1 are shown. All non-pictured personnel matchups can be considered a toss-up. These grades do not account for injuries.

  • Get ready for Derrick Henry to be the most important player once again for Week 15 DraftKings and FanDuel. Facing the worst rush defense in the league, tournament players’ decision on Henry will likely have the highest implications on your weekend profit. It will be incredibly hard to move away from Henry in cash games.
  • Cam Akers should have a chance to solidify himself as the lead back in Los Angeles once again in Week 15. The Rams should be focusing (almost exclusively) on their running game by the second half against the Jets this weekend, an ideal environment for the emerging star in the Rams’ backfield. Look for him in both DraftKings and FanDuel formats.
  • The Steelers defense will be wildly popular in daily fantasy football tournaments on DraftKings and FanDuel this weekend, but for good reason. The Bengals’ offensive line looks like it could be completely outclassed by the Steelers’ league-best pass rush. It could be a long night for Brandon Allen and company in Week 15.

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Author
A middling athlete who was offered his first sports analytics position at age 14, I've been working on NFL and fantasy football data science since 2017. With a particular passion for data visualization and dashboard building, I love to make data accessible by using graphs and charts to communicate ideas that are difficult to explain with words alone. You can contact me by e-mailing [email protected].

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