The KBO show just does not stop. Tuesday’s slate had a ton of action for KBO DFS players, with a pitching duel, 3 1-run games including an extra inning game, and a lot of runs scored once again. The Doosan chalk hit hard last night, what kind of dirt the Lotte starting pitcher has on his manager in order to stay in that role these past few years remains to be seen. The ESPN game was action packed with the Wiz and Dinos needing 10 innings to decide a 7-6 affair. Viewers who stayed up or rose early saw the Dinos tie the game in the bottom of the 9th on a 2-run homer by column favorite, and future major leaguer, Sung-bum Na, then walk it off in the 10th on Suk-min Park’s 2nd dinger of the game.
Tournament wins last night came down to threading the needle on the popular Doosan and NC stacks, with a low-owned Park providing a major boost to the lineups that got to him in the NC infield. Similarly, a low number of KBO DFS owners managed to pick off a nice outlier game from the Hanwha starting pitcher. 24-year-old Min-woo Kim struck out 8 Kia hitters on only 101 pitches through 7 clean innings before being betrayed late by his bullpen, costing him the win bonus. Kim was roughed up last week coming out of the bullpen in his first appearance and had not seen much KBO success the past two seasons, so this is either a big leap forward for the kid or just baseball variance. With strikeouts at a bit of a premium in the KBO game we’ll be keeping an eye on him next time out.
The bulk of this analysis comes directly from reviewing Awesemo’s KBO DFS projections and the top stacks tool. Check out the rest of our KBO content, Awesemo’s projections, rankings, and ownership on the site for all your KBO DFS needs.
As usual, I’m going to look game by game, calling out a hitter or two from each team, and giving some top stacking options as we go. Pricing and popularity will be considered, more so as trends begin to emerge over the coming weeks. The numbers included with Suggested Stack are the projected lineup positions I would target for stacking that team, but do not restrict yourself exclusively to those spots. For example, if it says Wyverns 3-6 it means 3,4,5,6 in the projected lineup. If it says 1-2-3-5 it means those guys. If it means a two-man it will say so. I’m also going to start trying to include positions more, hopefully it helps speed up the process of finding guys as you build lineups.
With lock still hours away (5:30am), official lineups have not been released, so be sure to double-check status before you plug players into your lineup.
KBO DFS Picks: Game Breakdown for DraftKings + FanDuel
Kia Tigers @ Hanwha Eagles – 9 run total (4.72/4.48) – Suggested Stack: Tigers 2-5
The Tigers surprised us last night, getting completely shut down in what appeared to be a good matchup going in. They eventually scratched out the win on two late runs once they got into the Eagles bullpen, but a solo shot from the 8-hitter probably didn’t help too many of you. Tonight, Kia draws Shi-hwan Jang, an “effectively wild” starter who has been around a strikeout-per-inning guy through his career but yields a ton of contact and struggles to keep people off the bases. Jang managed to throw 17 wild pitches in only 125 innings last year. To put this in perspective, Lance Lynn led MLB with 18 wild pitches in 2019, but Lynn threw 208 innings. This isn’t an outlier either, Jang had 8 in 51 innings in 2017 and 11 in 75 innings in 2016. All this while yielding more than a hit-per-inning. So, we can expect Kia to be on the bases and moving tonight. Whether they can take advantage is another story. The top stacks tool has Kia ranked 2nd on DraftKings, despite a low value total, but they don’t look as strong on FanDuel. The biggest issue with Kia is that the top two projected hitters aren’t great in the getting on base or being good at baseball part of the game, but if he does manage to get on-base infielder Chan-ho Park ($11/$4.7k) is definitely going to be running here after going 39-45 in steal attempts in 2019. Projected 3-hitter, infielder Sun-bum Kim ($13/$3.8k), on the other hand, is exactly what we’re looking for. With a demonstrable ability to get on base and the speed to swipe a bag or score from first on a base-hit, Kim is the perfect table-setter for sluggers behind him in Tigers stacks.
It might be a long year if you’re an Eagles fan (as an NY Giants fan, I’ll take whatever opportunity I can get to use that phrase). Hanwha showed why they’re pegged for dead last in projected KBO standings, with their offense only putting 1 run on the board on a Jared Hoying double. If veteran Kwang-min Song ($10/$4.0k) is hitting 5th he could provide an inexpensive angle to Awesemo’s 2nd least favorite FanDuel stack, but his $4k price is too high on DraftKings, where they’re his least favorite stack of the day. Sung-yeol Lee ($9/$2.8k) went down $2 on FanDuel and came up $500 on DraftKings, but he’s still underpriced for the talent, but he’s going to be somewhat popular in stacks and as a one-off.
KT Wiz @ NC Dinos – 9.5 run total (4.38/5.34) – Suggested Stack: Dinos 1-5 (E. Yang dependent)
The Wiz came into town game for a fight last night and gave “Swole-Daddy” (this is what the internet has named the NC mascot) and the Dinos everything they could handle. The middle of the Wiz order was the driving force behind most of their run production, and they look like the spot to go if you’re looking in KT’s direction for a stack tonight. The matchup against Mike Wright isn’t a great spot and the Wiz have the night’s 2nd lowest implied run total by almost half a run. Worse yet, the primary hitters aren’t coming at a cost or ownership discount. If someone said you have to play KT tonight the move might be to look to projected cleanup hitter Han-joon Yoo ($14/$4.0k) as a one -off. Yoo came down $900 on DraftKings despite going 2-4 with a walk and 2 runs scored last night and is drawing only around 1% projected ownership on both sites.
The Dinos stepped right up to meet the challenge again last night, answering 3 1st inning runs by the Wiz with 2 of their own in the bottom of the 1st and another in the 2nd, before cooling off until their late rally. The Dinos are just a fun team to watch, they’ve been on ESPN a lot because their lineup is good almost all the way up and down and has a lot of power. NC might be the most MLB-style lineup in the league. It will be worth keeping an eye on the status of the Dinos star catcher Eui Ji Yang ($13/$5.0k) going into this one. Yang sat last night with what the manager called rest, but other reports said was a strained hamstring. Despite early struggles, outfielder Aaron Altherr ($9/$5.9k) remains very expensive on DraftKings but provides a nice savings for KBO DFS owners on FanDuel tonight, following his empty 1-5 performance. The Dinos are a strong option for stacks again tonight, minor league washout William Cuevas struggled in his first start last week and does not do much to scare us off the NC stack.
Doosan Bears @ Lotte Giants – 10.5 run total (5.98/4.75) – Suggested Stack: Bears: Dealer’s Choice
Well that one worked out nicely. The Bears came into town with a dynamite matchup last night and jumped all over it early on with 5 runs in the first 2 innings. Cleanup hitter Jae-hwan Kim put up a monster 4-4 game with a homer, 3 runs, and 4rbi, rewarding owners who hammered chalky Bears. Tonight, they offer more of the same, with the highest implied run total on the slate by more than half a run. Joo Hwan Choi ($11/$2.2k) let us down last night but remains underpriced on DraftKings, which should help owners get to pricier parts of the stack like Jose Fernandez ($16/$5.2k) who continued his hot start to the season. Projected 6th hitter Jae-Ho Kim ($8/$2.1k) is a more capable hitter than his pricing would indicate and could be a lower-owned angle into a Doosan stack tonight. Sidebar: has anyone translated the SNL “da Bears” bit into Korean yet? Send a link on Twitter or in comments if you’ve seen this.Eui Ji Yang
Stealing a tongue-in-cheek stat from the boss’s Twitter account here: in Eric Thames’ best KBO season he had a .497OBP and a .409ISO, so far Dixon Machado ($13/$4.6k) has a .450 OBP and .500ISO. What does that mean? Not much really, it’s a hot start but Machado is over-priced and over-owned on DraftKings. He’s a bit more approachable on FanDuel but hitting low in the order leaves a lot to be desired. Getting to some of the capable veterans atop the Giants lineup is the approach tonight, with a capable but still young starter on the mound for Doosan. Byung-hun Min ($11/$3.6k) and Jun-woo Jeon ($14/$3.8k) could be good options to start from, Jeon in particular has enough ability to get on base that he might frustrate a young starter. Be warned however, despite the Giants hot start to the season, they will eventually come back to Earth, their offense simply isn’t as good as it has seemed early.
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SK Wyverns @ LG Twins – 9 run total (4.73/4.46) – Suggested Stack: Wyverns 2-5
Well, once again the oddsmakers don’t know everything. Coming in with a weak 8-run total last night, this one blew up for 14, with LG taking a 9-5 win. The total bumps up by a full run tonight, and the Wyverns have a few interesting pieces, particularly on FanDuel. Projected 2-hitter, outfielder Jong-wook Ko ($7/$4.1k) provides a ton of speed near the top of the lineup and is way underpriced on FanDuel. His speed doesn’t seem to come with perfect judgement, however, resulting in a 31-41 success rate on stolen base attempts in 2019, and a 70% rate for his career. Provided he doesn’t get himself thrown out on an attempt, dropping Ko in front of the mashers in the middle of this lineup makes a lot of sense tonight.
LG’s run total crept up a bit through the evening, and the Twins ended up dropping 9 on SK before they were finished. With a homer from productive power hitter Roberto Ramos ($15/$2.9k) who is somehow less expensive on DraftKings by $200 today, and most of their RBIs coming from the middle of the order, the Twins absolutely paid off owners who went to the meaty part of this stack. Taking on capable young righty Chang-gyu Lim, the Twins are ranking near the bottom of the top stacks tool but are once again drawing less ownership than might be appropriate. Ramos, however, is popular on both sites. Eun-Sung Chae ($11/$2.5k) came through with 2 runs scored and an RBI and his price also dropped. Hitting 3rd and drawing under 1% ownership, Chae makes for a fantastic option as part of a stack or even a cheap one-off.
Samsung Lions @ Kiwoom Heroes – 8.5 run total – (3.82/4.87) – Suggested Stack:
Samsung’s starter Ben Lively managed to mostly stifle the Kiwoom lineup, dueling Heroes starter Eric Jokisch for 6 innings before both yielded to the bullpen. The Lions bookended the game with 1 run in the 1st inning and 1 in the 9th, and not a lot in between. Tonight they go up against strong 23-year-old right-hander Won-tae Choi, who had a rough first start of the year against Kia last week. Dong Yeop Kim ($11/$2.6k) drove in one of the Lions’ runs and earns the back-to-back mention here today with his very real power potential. If outfielder Hae-min Park ($11/$3.2k) is in the top half of the lineup he merits some consideration with his ability to drive the ball into the gap.
Owners who were on him fell in love with Dong-won Park after he went yard last night as one of the few gasps from the disappointing Heroes offense. Drawing slightly more popularity than probability of being the top stack tonight, on both sites, the Heroes are a wait and see case for me. They draw David Buchanan tonight after he struggled mightily in his first outing last week against NC. Buchanan didn’t look comfortable after the 1st inning, struggling to find his command and yielding a lot of contact to the Dinos. A relatively soft-tosser whose four seamer sits around 90 with some sinking action, Buchanan features a Vulcan-change as an out pitch. If you’ve been following along, you’ll remember that we picked up a potential tip about the slick KBO ball impacting the feel for the change-up, when Josh Lindblom appeared on the ESPN broadcast. The Vulcan-change is an extreme grip that gets its name from the hand gesture that accompanied Mr. Spock’s “Live long and prosper” greeting and may prove even more challenging to master with the KBO ball. With that in mind, we like the look of the Heroes offense again here today, but their best bats are both expensive and popular daily. Utilityman Byeong-wuk Lim ($8/$2.4k) doesn’t provide a ton to love on his own but is projected to hit 5th and could easily benefit from the opportunity provided. As a cheap angle into this stack, and one of the lower-owned options in the Heroe’s lineup, he could be a difference maker for KBO DFS owners tonight.
Favorite Stack: Kia (Doosan should smash again but Kia is high ranked and low-owned)
HR Call: Min-hyeok Kim (KT – $9/$3.8k/0.1% ownership both sites, also has 0 career HR, not recommended for the faint of heart… you should play Jamie Romak from SK who tops the HR model today.)
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