Well that one sure got upside down on us. Other than the Doosan Bears continuing to crush the opposition, several expected outcomes on last night’s KBO DFS slate went a bit wonky on us last night. The mighty Dinos were finally tamed, scoring only 1 late run, but still scraping out the win, the Lions and Eagles stole victories from better teams, and it was a generally low-scoring night.
Pitching was a critical difference maker in contests across the board last night. With NC getting a dominant 8 inning 10 strikeout performance from Chang-mo Koo, lineups that didn’t have the impressive young starter were looking up on the scoreboard at those who did. Strong pitching performances were abundant, with 3 other starters cracking the 40FDP/20DKP mark on the night. This wasn’t a slate where all the pitching landed about the same at similar pricing, hitting the bullseye on your starters was a must. Tonight’s slate seems to be top-heavier on the pitching side of things, with Dan Straily and NC’s Jae Hak Lee carrying a relatively large projection delta over the other starters.
The end of the week brings us a new slate of matchups and what look to be our highest KBO run totals so far this season. Either the odds-makers are jumping on the narrative that the KBO baseball has been re-juiced and are making adjustments, or we’ve just got some outlier big scoring potential tonight. If you missed it on the ESPN broadcast last night, MyKBO founder Dan Kurtz stated that he’d spoken to several players and managers who all felt there was something different about the ball and the way it was exploding off the bat this year, noting that several opposite-field homers would likely not have gone out last year. Despite these claims, the manufacturer of the KBO ball says absolutely nothing has changed about the baseball. While there haven’t been an explosive number of overall homers, there has been a good amount of hard contact on display, so it will be interesting to watch this narrative through the season. For now, however, it remains only a narrative and not something we’re going to try to quantify just yet.
The bulk of this analysis comes directly from reviewing Awesemo’s KBO DFS projections and the top stacks tool. Check out the rest of our KBO content, Awesemo’s projections, rankings, and ownership on the site for all your KBO DFS needs.
As usual, I’m going to look game by game, calling out a hitter or two from each team, and giving some top stacking options as we go. Pricing and popularity will be considered, more so as KBO DFS trends begin to emerge over the coming weeks. The numbers included with Suggested Stack are the projected lineup positions I would target for stacking that team, but do not restrict yourself exclusively to those spots. For example, if it says Wyverns 3-6 it means 3,4,5,6 in the projected lineup. If it says 1-2-3-5 it means those guys. If it means a two-man it will say so. I’m also going to start trying to include positions more, hopefully it helps speed up the process of finding guys as you build lineups.
With lock still hours away (5:30am), official lineups have not been released, so be sure to double-check status before you plug players into your lineup.
Be warned: there are several games on the slate with threatening weather conditions, be sure to check status.
KBO DFS Picks: Game Breakdown for DraftKings + FanDuel
Lotte Giants @ Hanwha Eagles – 9 run total (5.52/3.70) – Suggested Stack: Giants 2-man 3-4
Lotte dropped the rubber match against Doosan last night, just the second of the year for the rebuilding squad, who look to continue their hot start tonight against Hanwha. The Giants have their imported ace Dan Straily taking the hill tonight, and the line reflects the tall order that the Eagles will have scoring any runs off him. The Eagles are countering Straily with 19-year-old Ee-whan Kim, a second-year starter who had a solid but unspectacular 2020 debut, limiting runs and contact, but only striking out 3 in 5 innings. The Giants have the slate’s second-highest run total and rank 3rd on both sites in the top stacks tool, but with several teams carrying implied totals over 5 they are not exceptional and are carrying too much ownership throughout KBO DFS tonight. If you don’t mind getting chalky with this stack, outfielder and projected 3 hitter Ah Seop Son ($13/$3.6k) has plenty of on-base skills and makes a strong natural pairing with cleanup hitter Dae-ho Lee ($13/$4.6k) who is projected for lower ownership on both sites. Using them as a 2-man stack would be a slightly less popular angle into getting some Lotte in your life.
The best thing I can say about the Eagles tonight is that they’ll be low-owned. Taking on Dan Straily has them ranked dead last in the top stacks tool on both sites. If you want to take a very contrarian approach to the slate and get some heavy leverage against the highest owned pitcher, this is probably your spot. If that becomes your direction of choice tonight there is no real point in messing around, using the heart of this order is the approach you want to take. Hitters like Jared Hoying ($14/$4.8k) and Sung-yeol Lee ($9/$2.8k) are your Hanwha targets for KBO DFS action tonight.
NC Dinos @ SK Wyverns – 9 run total (5.10/4.10) – Suggested Stack: Dinos 2-5
The Dinos finally let owners down on the offensive side of the game last night but got a tremendous performance from their starter and still came away with a 1-0 win. They come into town tonight carrying an implied total above 5 once again but are only one of several options in that range. Priced up on DraftKings and ranking around the middle of Awesemo’s top stacks tool for both sites, the Dinos are a bit tricky tonight. We don’t want to get away from them completely with the way their ownership is tracking slightly under their top stack probability on FanDuel, this one warrants monitoring through the evening to see how the line moves as we get closer to game time. Despite their early success, FanDuel has really not pumped up the pricing on Dinos hitters, so options like Aaron Altherr ($9/$6.0k) and Myung-gi Lee ($10/$3.7k) remain very affordable pieces of this stack, and neither is carrying overwhelming ownership.
The Wyverns have really started 2020 in a funk. Expected to be one of the better KBO teams again this year, they just have yet to get anything going, stumbling to a 1-7 start. Tonight, they draw capable veteran righty Jae-hak Lee, and are coming up near the bottom of stack rankings. They won’t be very popular and do carry some upside, however, so crossing them off completely might be a mistake. FanDuel’s pricing on some of the mid-lineup options carries some appeal. Keep an eye on who gets the start in leftfield, as SK has a couple banged-up players, and are rotating starters. If he draws the start, veteran Kang-min Kim ($9/$3.2k) is carrying less than 3% ownership on both slates, and makes a good option to stack with the power hitters behind him in the Wyverns lineup.  Â
Doosan Bears @ Kia Tigers – 11 run total (6.12/5.13) – Suggested Stack: Bears 3-6
Monster implied run total in this one, with the Bears pulling the season’s first 6+ game. With the Tigers looking at an implied total above 5 as well, we should probably expect some fireworks. I would look elsewhere for pitching tonight. Doosan draws middling starter Ki-young Im, and this lineup should put a hurt on him, but they are no secret. Essentially etched in stone atop the stack rankings on both sites, the Bears ownership is tracking right around their potential to be the top stack play again, keeping them in very playable but chalky range. Jae-il Oh ($15/$4.5k) hit a HR from the 2-spot in my HR model last night and then saw his price drop on both sites, take advantage. Projected 6th hitter, infielder Jae-ho Kim ($8/$2.3k) provides an inexpensive low-owned angle into this stack. Kim has displayed a strong on-base and hit tool throughout his career and drives in runs despite not hitting many homers. Kim’s WRC+ has been above league-average each of the last 5 seasons, making him an important but overlooked part of the Bears’ offense.
Kia has been tricky to nail down this season, disappointing again last night in what looked to be a good spot on paper. Taking on a capable veteran lefty, they rank toward the bottom of the stacks tool tonight, and carry very high prices on DraftKings, suppressing ownership on some of their key bats. On FanDuel their pricing is a bit more friendly, leading to slightly higher ownership. Table setter Sun-bin Kim ($13/$3.8k) projects to bat 2nd behind the more popular Chan Ho Park and makes for a good stacking option with the sluggers behind him in the lineup, starting a stack at 2 instead of 1 might be a difference making play tonight.
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Samsung Lions @ KT Wiz – 9.5 run total (4.44/5.17) – Suggested Stack: Wiz 1/2-3-4-5
The Lions had an 8-run outburst in a win last night against the stronger Kiwoom Heroes. Tonight they take on the disappointing KT Wiz, who are off to a 1-7 start. 18-year-old starter Hyeong-jun So makes his 2nd KBO start after keeping the mighty Doosan Bears in check over 5 innings last week. Samsung is interesting in the top stacks tool tonight, as Awesemo has them ranked 5th on both sites, higher than the favored Wiz. This suggests to me that his projections model is seeing something it likes in the matchup vs the young starter. The Lions are also pulling around the same level of ownership as their probability of being the top stack, however, so they present another tricky spot for KBO DFS owners. Cleanup hitter, third baseman Won-seok Lee ($10/$4.2k) has a significant pricing and ownership discrepancy between sites, less expensive but lower-owned on FanDuel, where he makes for a good option as part of Samsung stacks. Hak-ju Lee ($6/$3.6k) is not a standout in any way but could make for a smart price and ownership play on both sites to help get some of the better Lions bats above him in with a good 2nd stack and strong pitching.
The Wiz are still carrying high prices despite their disappointing start to the season. There are several good bats in the lineup that just have not shown up yet. Despite a respectable implied run total above 5, the Wiz don’t rank out well on either site in the top stacks tool, and are drawing slightly inappropriate ownership. Leadoff hitter Woo-jun Sim ($12/$2.5k) struggles to drive the ball and does not have a terrific on-base tool, but he does run when he gets there and could be a decent inexpensive way to start your Wiz stack. The bats behind him in the lineup are all pricey, so the savings helps. I might look to avoid stacks that have both Sim and 2-hitter Min-hyeok Kim ($9/$4.3k) together. The pair of slap-hitters just do not do enough offensively to take up 2 of your valuable lineup spots, and probably should not appear 1-2 in a real baseball lineup either. Use one or the other with the bigger bats that come behind them.
Kiwoom Heroes @ LG Twins – 10 run total – (5.29/4.93) – Suggested Stack: Heroes 1-4
Kiwoom is looking to get back on track tonight after dropping 2 straight to Samsung to start the week. Coming into Seoul with a healthy run total tonight against the Twins, the Heroes should be able to put more runs on the board for KBO DFS owners. They take on starter Chan-heon Jung who strikes out very few batters and pitches to a ton of contact. The Heroes should have plenty of opportunity here and rank 2nd on both sites in the top stacks tool. Cleanup hitter Byung-ho Park ($14/$5.2k) is justifiably super-popular every night, but some of his teammates are going under owned tonight on FanDuel. Leadoff hitting infielder Keon-chang Seo ($11/$2.7k) and outfielder Jung-hoo Lee ($14/$4.3k) both fall into this category and make great options for FD stacks tonight.
The Twins offer a similar spot to where they have fallen the last few days. They should score, but they do not look overly likely to be the top option on the night. The key bats in the middle of their order will be owned, with Roberto Ramos carrying a projection approaching 30% on both sites. This might make him a smart fade, which could take the Twins lineup entirely out of play for me. If I’m playing Twins I’m probably looking to get away from that chalk in some 2-mans with other players in the lineup. Outfielder and projected 3rd hitter Eun-sung Chae ($11/$2.5k) is pulling only around 5% ownership on both sites and is probably underpriced for his talent. Chae has posted a WRC+ around 25% better than league-average each of the last 3 seasons and is one of the primary engines for the Kia offense when it gets moving. If you’re going Kia, ignore the chalk and explore the alternatives.
Favorite Stack: Doosan
HR Call: Dae-ho Lee (LOT) Â
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