Strap in, KBO DFS fans, tonight could be a bumpy one. With a split schedule featuring two games that begin at 1am EST and 3 games starting at 4am, there should be some edge for people willing to stay up in the interim to manage their lineups. Both FanDuel and DraftKings will be offering late swap for the slate, so making changes will be viable as the late games announce who will be playing. That said, making that many swaps with the lateness of the typical arrival time of KBO lineups will be a frantic exercise.
Last night’s slate had a ton of action again and featured another frustrating late rain-out as well as two teams scoring more than 12 runs. The Doosan Bears were once again a big scoring team on the night; however, their final total is slightly deceptive after it was padded late by several pinch hit home runs. The KT Wiz dropped a monster 14 run 16 hit game, hanging 5 runs on the starter before really blowing up the Samsung bullpen. Big games from the popular bats in the middle of the order propelled people who played KT to the top of GPP scoreboards.
Popular Lotte Giants starter Dan Straily did a great job of disappointing everyone who rostered him. Straily didn’t get blown up, but he didn’t do anything to help set your lineup apart and was far too popular for the type of result delivered. SK’s starter Seung-won Moon was one of the few KBO pitchers to figure out the NC Dinos powerful lineup, putting up the night’s best pitching line though 6 before turning the game over to his bullpen who cost him the victory.
The bulk of this analysis comes directly from reviewing Awesemo’s KBO DFS projections and the top stacks tool. Check out the rest of our KBO content, Awesemo’s projections, rankings, and ownership on the site for all your KBO DFS needs.
As usual, I’m going to look game by game, calling out a hitter or two from each team, and giving some top stacking options as we go. Pricing and popularity will be considered, more so as KBO DFS trends begin to emerge over the coming weeks. The numbers included with Suggested Stack are the projected lineup positions I would target for stacking that team, but do not restrict yourself exclusively to those spots. For example, if it says Wyverns 3-6 it means 3,4,5,6 in the projected lineup. If it says 1-2-3-5 it means those guys. If it means a two-man it will say so. I’m also going to start trying to include positions more, hopefully it helps speed up the process of finding guys as you build lineups.
With lock still hours away (1:00am), official lineups have not been released, so be sure to double-check status before you plug players into your lineup.
KBO DFS Picks: Game Breakdown for DraftKings + FanDuel
Lotte Giants @ Hanwha Eagles – 9 run total (4.31/4.90) – Suggested Stack: Eagles 2-5
The Giant’s recent friskiness was never really in play last night, with the Eagles pitching staff doing a great job holding the upstart young team to just a lone 1st inning run riding a capable but unremarkable 6 inning performance by starter Ee-whan Kim. Lotte will look to get things rolling again tonight against the Eagles’ import starter Warwick Saupold, who has posted 2 quality starts in his first tilts of the season after a strong 2019. KBO DFS players looking to get to the Giants lineup here are taking on the night’s 2nd lowest total and a team that falls around the middle of Awesemo’s top stack rankings. Projected leadoff hitter Byung-hun Min ($11/$4.0k) has been mentioned in this space a few times already this season. Min offers a fantastic set of tools to both create runs and set the table for sluggers later in the order. With an on-base percentage that has never fallen below .373 and a WRC+ around 20% above league-average each of the last 8 seasons, while striking out under 15% of the time in all but one of those years (15.7%) Min is a prototypical modern leadoff hitter and the place to begin any Lotte stack tonight. Getting to last night’s recommendations at 3 and 4 in the lineup remains a good approach to
The Hanwha Eagles draw Lotte starter Kyung-eun Noh, whose career numbers are a baffling mess. With both very bad and sort of good seasons on his ledger, it’s tough to get a feel for where exactly Noh is, but we can say for sure that he pitches to a lot of contact and rarely strikes batters out. This should create opportunity for the Eagles tonight, and they rank higher than normal on the top stacks tool, where the value rating on FanDuel is through the roof, but ownership is right on top of it. A situation to keep an eye on in the middle of the Eagles lineup is the loss of import Jared Hoying to injury. Hoying is slated to miss several games after sitting out last night, leaving a big hole right in the middle of Hanwha’s lineup. The Eagles offer terrific value at the top of the lineup on FanDuel tonight, with their projected first 4 hitters all priced under $10. Infielders Eun-won Jung ($8/$5.0k) and Ju-suk Ha ($9/$3.0k) should be hitting 2-3 and both bring reasonable gap power, on-base skills, and speed to the lineup tonight. The pricing discrepancy between sites on Jung is particularly eye-popping.
Kiwoom Heroes @ LG Twins – 8.5 run total – (4.55/4.14) – Suggested Stack: Heroes 2-5
The 1st game of a double-header, this one is the night’s 2nd 1:00am game and will probably be a little popular simply based on people wanting lineup security without staying up or swapping. Making up last night’s rain-out, this one carries the night’s lowest run total at a meager 8.5. Odds-makers are giving due respect to the dueling import starters Jake Brigham and Casey Kelly. The Heroes are expected to be one of the league’s better offenses and should be a place for KBO DFS owners to look frequently throughout the season, but tonight they land around the middle of the top stacks tool. The best hitter in the Heroes lineup Byung-ho Park ($14/$5.3k) is the main cog in any Kiwoom construction again tonight, but just like yesterday he’ll be their most popular hitter again tonight. Pairing him in a two-man with projected 5th hitter Dong-wan Park ($8/$4.3k) or in a larger stack with some of the lower-owned capable hitters above them in the lineup is the approach once again.
In a tough spot on paper here in the first game tonight, LG ranks dead last on both sites in Awesemo’s top stacks tool, though they appear to present more value on DraftKings than FanDuel. Outside of power-hitter Roberto Ramos ($16/$3.0k), who is tracking around 25% ownership on both sites, no one in the LG lineup is going to be popular here against Brigham, one of the KBO’s best pitchers each of the last 3 seasons. Ramos offers a tremendous savings on DraftKings for the upside but is pricey on FanDuel. If we’re going in a different direction here, projected 2 hitter, outfielder Hyun-soo Kim ($14/$5.3k) provides a good option. Kim has a solid bat with several seasons of more than 20 homeruns on his ledger. He also rarely strikes out, posting a k% of only 8.7% in 2019 and 11.9% in 2018, while getting on base at a .370 and .415 clip respectively.
NC Dinos @ SK Wyverns – 9.5 run total (5.15/4.56) – Suggested Stack: Dinos 1-5 (maybe working around Yang for ownership reasons)
Last night saw another mostly quiet night from the big Dinos bats, with these teams taking a 2-2 tie into the 10th inning, where NC’s offense finally broke through for another 4 runs, taking advantage of a hit batsman and a few ugly walks to win the game. The first of our 4:00am games, handling potential lineup changes is going to be interesting. The Dinos have shown a bit of a propensity to switch things up and are dealing with a few banged up players in the lineup, so watch them closely for changes. Taking on converted reliever Tae-hoon Kim, who had a solid start for the Wyverns last week, the Dinos come in the slight favorites here, but only rank toward the middle of overall stacks. Other than star catcher Eui-ji Yang, ownership appears to be down on them slightly, creating a potentially favorable situation for KBO DFS owners to target. On DraftKings, where owners are required to roster a catcher, Yang’s ownership is tracking for an unplayable 50%. Other options in the Dinos lineup are far more appealing at significant lower exposure. Sung-bum Na ($12/$4.0k) and Aaron Altherr ($9/$6.1k) remain underpriced on FanDuel; Altherr’s huge price tag is suppressing his ownership on DraftKings dramatically, which could
Facing 20-year-old lefty Young-gyu Kim, the Wyverns drag themselves into this one from the cellar of the KBO, losers of 7 straight. As one of Awesemo’s lowest ranked stacks and carrying a middling run total, there is not all that much to love about this lineup tonight, other than the power potential provided by the popular pricey projected 3 and 4 hitters. Infielders Jamie Romak ($13/$6.0k) and Jeong Choi ($15/$5.4k) currently rank 1 and 3 in my HR model for today’s slate but are priced and will be owned accordingly. If you’re missing Game of Thrones and find yourself inclined to play dragons tonight, a sneakier approach might be to look to their teammate, outfielder Dong-min Han ($13/$4.6k) as part of a small stack or as a one-off. Ranked 4th in that same HR model, Han packs just as much or more power as his teammates and is tracking for 0.1% ownership on both sites. Like Awesemo is indicating in his data, I like these guys better as one-offs or in mini-stacks than as a full-stack here.
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Doosan Bears @ Kia Tigers – 10 run total (5.56/4.67) – Suggested Stack: Bears 2-5
So how many MLB cellar dwellers do we think the Bears could realistically take at this point? The offense here is legitimate, putting up another big game even before things went sideways for the Kia bullpen late in the game. The Bears yield the top spot in the stacks tool tonight but might be more interesting for it. With a top stack probability that currently outweighs their projected ownership on FanDuel, this could be a prime spot for KBO DFS owners who can find ways to fit the big prices into constructions. On DraftKings their primary bats are under-priced and present a ton of value but will be popular. The price-up on FanDuel has them going under-owned, which is where you probably want to make your stand with them tonight if that’s the plan. Projected 2-hitter Jose Miguel Fernandez ($17/$6.3k) is off to an absurd start to the season and has become the most expensive player in the KBO, which has him tracking under 10% ownership on both sites. It might be late in the game to jump on a guy currently carrying a .526/.571/.816 triple slash on the young season, but if others are zigging, we want to be zagging. I can’t believe spellcheck didn’t flag either of those words.
Kia ranks low in the top stacks tool here once again, and none of their hitters carry a spectacular projection, but they are tracking for around half the ownership as their probability of being the top stack on DraftKings, which could be a subtle opportunity. Ji-wan Na ($7/$3.0k) remains a value, coming at a low cost and under 5% ownership on both sites he has the power to drive one out of the park any night. Na currently ranks 9th in my HR model, and makes for a good option at the bottom of a Kia stack.
Samsung Lions @ KT Wiz – 11 run total (5.24/6.00) – Suggested Stack: Lions 1-2-4-5
Our last game of the night is carrying our highest run total and lands both teams near the top of stacks rankings, which is a bit of a change from where we normally see them. The pitching match-up in this one is likely part of why, with a shaky aging veteran on one side and an ineffective 2nd year starter on the other. Oddsmakers like this one to really go off, and both teams present some playable options. The Lions look to be more popular on DraftKings, where they are drawing attention through most of the lineup. The three top hitters are the only ones with a significant ownership projection on FanDuel, however, presenting a great spot for us to jump on some inexpensive upside. Infielders Hak-ju Lee ($6/$3.8k) hitting 5th and leadoff hitter Sang-su Kim ($9/$5.5k) are players who benefit more from their place in the lineup than their individual talent, but could be important parts of the machine tonight for Samsung, making them playable at low cost and ownership on both sites.
The Wiz have the highest run total on the slate by ½ a run tonight and are getting a lot of attention from KBO DFS owners. There are a lot of bats to like in this lineup tonight but threading that ownership needle is going to be tricky and very important for anyone who goes to the Wiz here. The big bats in the heart of the order are pricey and almost absurdly popular. Outfielders Mel Rojas Jr. and Baek-ho Kang are both trending toward 40% ownership on FanDuel. With variance playing a gigantic role in baseball, anytime ownership gets this high on individuals we want to start looking elsewhere, almost regardless of the quality of the spot, and it becomes mandatory to get different when building with them. Using other pieces of the Wiz lineup with one of those two, or in separate stacks will be a good approach here, as others in the lineup stand to benefit from a high scoring game and are drawing far less ownership. Woo-jun Sim ($11/$2.5k) remains the same flawed player with speed that we mentioned yesterday but leading off for this lineup with only a 5% ownership projection on FanDuel makes him incredibly important to these builds. Kyung-Soo Park ($10/$3.5k) is another part of the Wiz stack that is getting overlooked at the other end of the batting order. Hitting 7th leaves plenty to be desired, and he strikes out more than we’d like with k% in the mid-20s each of the last few seasons, but Park is the kind of hitter we’re looking for here, with the power to drive the ball out of the yard and be a big part of Wiz scoring.
Favorite Stack: Doosan
HR Call: Dong-min Han (SK)
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