The second week of KBO action sure helped keep a sports-thirsty planet entertained. KBO DFS players were certainly not disappointed by the action throughout the week, with six slates that saw a total of 302 runs scored across the 30 games. Through the first two weeks of action, KBO hitters have managed to smash 114 home runs in 57 games, putting the league’s HR/g average around ¾ of a HR below that of MLB to this point in the season. On the offensive side of the plate, we’re seeing clear trends emerging in terms of which parts of lineups generate runs, and who the big bats are likely to be this season. The power of the import players through two weeks cannot be denied.
The pleasant surprise so far on the season has been the quality of the league’s starting pitching. The KBO, for whatever reason, did not register as a league from which to expect much on the mound. Through two weeks we’ve seen several very strong starting pitching performances so far, with a lot of the league’s runs coming once teams crack into the soft bullpen meat. The league’s suspect defense has also contributed several unearned runs to box scores through two weeks. 11 starters have made 2 quality starts already on the season, and Warwick Saupold has 3. As expected, strikeouts are where the KBO falls off on the pitching side. With a filter of 10ip (small sample size special) only 5 KBO starters have a k/9 above 10.0, a number which 21 MLB starters exceeded in 2020. The average among our pool of qualified KBO starters was a k/9 of 7.4. To put this number in perspective, in 2019 that would have ranked the average KBO starter between Wade Miley (7.53) and Rick Porcello (7.38).
KBO doesn’t play on Mondays, which makes this a prime opportunity to run down some of our early league leaders:
Hits/Avg: Jose Fernandez (23/52 .479), Preston Tucker (20/51 .444), Min-woo Park (19/48 .432), Mel Rojas Jr. (20/50 .426), Ah-seop Son (15/49 .405)
On-Base %: Ah-seop Son (.532), Jose Fernandez (.519), Preston Tucker (.510), Min-woo Park (.479), Roberto Ramos (.477)
Slugging %: Preston Tucker (.911), Dong-min Han (.811), Roberto Ramos (.784), Baek-ho Kang (.756), Jose Fernandez (.729)
HR: Preston Tucker (5), Dong-min Han (5), Jun-woo Jeon, Sung-bum Na, Jae-hwan Kim, Baek-ho Kang, Dixon Machado, Roberto Ramos (4)
RBI: Preston Tucker (20), Jae-hwan Kim (14), Dixon Machado (14), Jae-il Oh (13), Sung-woo Jang (12)
The bulk of this analysis comes directly from reviewing Awesemo’s KBO DFS projections and the top stacks tool. Check out the rest of our KBO content, Awesemo’s projections, rankings, and ownership on the site for all your KBO DFS needs.
As usual, I’m going to look game by game, calling out a hitter or two from each team, and giving some top stacking options as we go. Pricing and popularity will be considered, more so as KBO DFS trends begin to emerge over the coming weeks. The numbers included with Suggested Stack are the projected lineup positions I would target for stacking that team, but do not restrict yourself exclusively to those spots. For example, if it says Wyverns 3-6 it means 3,4,5,6 in the projected lineup. If it says 1-2-3-5 it means those guys. If it means a two-man it will say so. I’m also going to start trying to include positions more, hopefully it helps speed up the process of finding guys as you build lineups.
With lock still hours away (5:30 AM), official lineups have not been released, so be sure to double-check status before you plug players into your lineup.
Final note before we dive in, Josh is off this week so I’ll try to add some color on starting pitching options for KBO DFS here as well over the next few days.
KBO DFS Picks: Game Breakdown for DraftKings + FanDuel
Hanwha Eagles @ KT Wiz – 9 run total (4.02/5.19) – Suggested Stack: Wiz 3-6
The Eagles come into Suwon looking to take an important early series from the Wiz here. With both teams stumbling a bit out of the gate at 5-7 and 4-7 respectively, winning a few games and creating some separation in the standings at the outset of the season is going to be important. The Eagles draw KT’s import starter William Cuevas ($24/$7.5k) tonight. Cuevas has had an up and down start to his 2020 campaign through his first 2 starts of the year. He’s so far managed to limit hits and walks but has bizarrely hit 3 batters with pitches and has not dazzled with his strikeout numbers, posting a league average k/9. Cuevas has yielded 7 earned runs in 11 innings on the season so far, however all but 2 of them came in a big 3rd inning by Lotte in his first start. This could be a spot where box score watchers will shy away from an SP option who is carrying Awesemo’s highest pitching projection on both sites. The Eagles don’t do a ton of the things that KBO DFS owners are looking for from an offense. With only 3 home runs so far on the season and extremely limited production from their outfield, Hanwha is just difficult to rely on most nights. If you’re looking to get some birds of prey into your lineup tonight, Seung-yol Lee ($9/$3.0k) remains far too inexpensive on both sites. Lee hasn’t done much to earn a bump in salary yet this year, his limited contribution of 1 extra base hit and 5 RBI is part of why the Eagles are yet to get going. After limiting his strikeout percentage to just under 24% in 2019, the free-swinging veteran has begun 2020 at almost exactly his career pace around 28%. Lee is putting bat on ball however, and with his demonstrable ability to drive the ball through his career owners can expect the numbers to come eventually. With an under-productive 1 and 2 hitter in the lineup, the Eagles don’t offer a ton to love in full stacks most nights. Combining Lee with the 3 and/or 5 hitters in smaller builds is going to be the construction here most nights.
The Wiz are facing Shi-hwan Jang ($23/$6.7k), who we had some fun highlighting here his last start. If you missed it, we touched on Jang’s ridiculous propensity to throw wild pitches. After throwing 17 in just 125 innings during 2019, he didn’t disappoint, posting one in the 3rd inning his last time out. Jang posts reasonable strikeout numbers, but has difficulty keeping men off the bases. With an ugly k/bb ratio of 1.68 for his career, Jang simply issues too many free passes to be trustworthy. He can cover a few earned runs with a good strikeout game, and ranks around the middle of Awesemo’s pitching projections, but I’m more likely to find myself on the Wiz side of this one. With several big bats in the middle of the lineup, the Wiz should be able to take advantage of being on base tonight. Getting to league leaders Baek-ho Kang ($14/$5.8k) and Mel Rojas Jr. ($15/$6.2k) will be a natural approach to this lineup. Projected 6-hitter Jae-gyun Hwang ($9/$4.7k) still offers some savings for the history of pop we can see in his bat.
LG Twins @ Samsung Lions – 9.5 run total (5.15/4.56) – Suggested Stack: Twins two-man 2-3
Odds-makers are favoring the visiting LG Twins to take the opener in Daegu tonight, in this battle of electronics manufacturing titans. The Twins are out to a good start, winners of 7 of their first 11 games and sitting in a tie for 3rd place two weeks into the KBO season. The Lions are looking to import David Buchanan ($22/$7.3k) to keep the capable Twins offense off the board. Through 2 starts in 2020 Buchanan is 1-1 with 10 strikeouts to just 2 walks. Impressively, Buchanan has limited opponents to only 8 hits through his 13 innings, for a dazzling 0.77 WHIP to this point. Keeping that going against the Twins here might be a tall order, this is a lineup that just puts the ball in play. With a lineup that includes KBO career hits leader Y.T. Park, the Twins had more than 10 hits in 3 of their 5 games last week and scored a ton of runs. Park should not be ignored in your Twins stacks, even hitting 6th, but there is plenty to like above him in the order. Projected 2-hitter Hyun-soo Kim and 3-hitter Eun-Sung Chae ($12/$2.6k), who is still far too inexpensive, are grading out well in Awesemo’s projections and should be included in any Twins stacks.
The Lions come into tonight with the 2nd lowest implied total on the slate. Facing 27-year-old Chang-gyu Lim ($25/$6.9k), who baffled the SK Wyverns in his first start of 2020 last week, getting the win and quality start in 6 strong innings, striking out 7 while walking none and giving up a lone run. Lim ranks out as Awesemo’s 3rd highest projected starter on both sites tonight. While the control he demonstrated against SK might be too much to hope for in terms of development, this is a kid who hit 24 batters in 124 innings in 2017 after all, the strikeout upside is very real with Lim, and he should have the attention of KBO DFS owners tonight. The Lions offense might not be as exaggeratedly bad as we were making them out to be the first week of the season, but they’re certainly one of the weaker teams in the KBO so far. Most of this team’s production on any given night is going to come from the guys who have been putting up numbers so far, projected 2 and 4 hitters Dong-yeop Kim ($11/$3.0k) and Won-seok Lee ($10/$4.2k). The leadoff hitter for the Lions, Sang-su Kim ($9/$5.3k) has a significant price discrepancy tonight and a solid projection from Awesemo, so getting him into any Lions stacks you run would be a sharp play. Kim has decent on-base skills and plenty of speed on the base-paths to either swipe a bag or score on a base hit from someone behind him.
Lotte Giants @ Kia Tigers – 10.5 run total (5.57/5.15) – Suggested Stack: Giants 1-4
Big total alert in this one. With the night’s highest projected run total by a full run and oddsmakers liking this one to be relatively close, there should be plenty of opportunity on both sides of this game. The Giants come in off to a surprising 7-4 start, while the Tigers have been a slight disappointment in early action. Min-woo Lee ($22/$7.2k) toes the rubber for the Tigers tonight and seems way too pricey on DraftKings in particular. Lee ranks in the bottom half of Awesemo’s pitching projections on both sites, and his career numbers don’t give those hoping for a good start much to which they can cling. Between walks and hits, the 27-year-old just allows too many runners to reach base. The Giants should be able to take advantage of this in a big way tonight, and Awesemo’s projections absolutely love them. Projected hitters 1-6 in the lineup are all projecting for over 12FDP/9.5DKP on the night and should provide owners some fireworks. They will also likely be extremely popular, so this is a spot where doing one thing differently than the field could be a GPP winning decision. The bottom 3 hitters in the Giants order are virtually min-priced on both sites. While they do not project well, they could offer some differentiation on a super-popular play. On DraftKings, where KBO DFS owners are forced to roster a catcher, using the projected 9-hitter Bo-guen Jung ($5/$2.5k), a 20-year-old with essentially no career history, in a wraparound stack with the top of the order could be a different look at the Giants stack tonight.
The Tigers draw 19-year-old Jun-won Seo ($24/$6.1k) tonight. After an up and down 2019 that is nonetheless impressive for a teenager to post, Seo began his 2020 with a good start against KT before getting shellacked by the Doosan Bears in his 2nd appearance. With more walks than strikeouts so far on the season, putting any faith in Seo is a risky proposition for KBO DFS owners. The Tigers should see their share of opportunities through this one. Preston Tucker ($14/$5.9k) has been ridiculous to start 2020, leading the league in several important fantasy categories, but we’re not here to just point at the obvious. Looking down the lineup a bit tonight, in the hopes again of getting different with what should be a popular stack, projected 8-hitter Min-sang Yoo ($7/$4.1k) is pulling down a decent number on both sites in Awesemo’s projections. Despite never putting up big numbers and hitting very few homers, the 31-year-old infielder has demonstrated the ability to drive the ball during limited opportunities throughout his career and could be a cheap low-owned source of production for KBO DFS owners tonight. Getting to him in either a wrap-around construction or something building down from the middle of the order could be an angle for the Tigers stack.
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NC Dinos @ Doosan Bears – 9.5 run total (4.96/4.74) – Suggested stack: Dinos 3-6
Tie down the patio furniture, batten down the hatches, let the family sleep in, this one should be a doozy. With the 10-1 NC Dinos coming into town to take on the 7-4 Doosan Bears in a battle of the league’s most explosive teams so far there’s a lot to like about this game. The Bears are sending young right-handed ace Young-ha Lee ($21/$8.3k) to the hill today to try and shut down the mighty Dinos. Awesemo’s projections aren’t favorable for Lee tonight and he’s pricey on DraftKings. On FanDuel his low price is tempting as a contrarian option, and I might end up going there a little bit, but the limited strikeout potential that Lee has demonstrated so far in his career make it a risky proposition, as there won’t be many insurance points to cover any mistakes. The Dinos once again look strong in the projections. All the Dinos hitters from 1-6 in the projected lineup on both sites are in very playable spots tonight. Getting different with the usual suspects will be important in this spot as well. 6-hitter, shortstop Jin-hyuk No ($10/$3.3k) is a gap-hitter off to a solid start in 2020. No has doubles power and the ability to drive in runs should the opportunity present itself. With the popularity of the hitters above him in the lineup it might make sense to work some additional No into your builds tonight, depending on where his projected ownership falls closer to lock.
The Bears face NC’s Mike Wright ($27/$9.0k) who is priced up on both sites with his KBO career off to a strong start through his first 2 games. Awesemo’s projections don’t love Wright tonight, planting him in the bottom half of starters and way off required value. Wright throws a hard slider and a four-seamer that sits in the mid-90s, which he mixes with a sinker and off-speed pitch, but primarily leans on the slider-fastball combo. Through 11 KBO innings Wright has 11 strikeouts and only 3 walks. There’s upside here but taking on the powerful Bears lineup at that price owners looking for a GPP winning starter should peruse some of the other options on the slate. The Bears offense is priced up across the industry tonight, with 3 of their primary hitters at $17 on FanDuel. 3-hitter Jae-il Oh ($17/$4.2k) is too cheap on DraftKings however. Projected 1 and 5 hitters, Kun-woo Park ($13/$4.0k) and Joo-hwan Choi ($11/$2.2k) make for affordable additions to this stack. On FanDuel it could be contrarian to load up with all 3 of the expensive Bears bats here.
SK Wyverns @ Kiwoom Heroes – 8.5 run total (3.82/4.87) – Suggested Stack: Heroes 3-4-5-7
The cellar-dwelling 1-10 SK Wyverns are looking to get anything at all going tonight against Kiwoom, before their season is ruled dead on arrival. The Heroes aren’t doing them any favors, pitching Won-tae Choi ($25/$9.5k), one of the better young Korean starters in the KBO. Choi is off to a strong start again in 2020 and has an excellent k/bb ratio to start the season, while giving up just 2 earned runs in each of his starts so far. Awesemo’s projections currently have Choi ranking out 2nd on both sites, making him a good play regardless of price here. The only player who has gotten out of the gate well for the Wyverns this year on offense is Dong-min Han ($13/$4.2k). Without his 5 home runs and 11 RBI from the middle of the lineup, things would be so much worse for SK. This lineup does still have a lot to offer, however, and could be sneaky if they finally decide to show up. KBO DFS owners could surprise going to Han along with yet-to-arrive mashers Jamie Romak ($12/$6.0k) and Jeong Choi ($15/$5.2k), eventually they will hit. If they’re not getting the attention their talent warrants, I like the middle of the Wyverns lineup as a contrarian option tonight.
The Wyverns are hoping that Ricardo Pinto ($22/$7.7k) can help get them in the win column tonight. Pinto had one very good start and one very bad start to begin his KBO career, but in both he walked too many hitters and struggled to strike anyone out. His 2nd start was a 10-run disaster against LG, but Pinto was betrayed by the Wyverns terrible defense several times in the game, making the result a bit deceptive. Pinto was never “on” during the game, though, struggling to find command of his fastball throughout. If you’re going to Pinto as a pitching option tonight, do it with the right attitude; why Pinto? To quote the great senator John “Bluto” Blutarsky “(burp) why not?!” With that in mind, Awesemo’s projections are favoring the Kiwoom offense in this one. Getting yourself to some constructions around the heart of the order is the play again here, with super-popular infielder Byung-ho Park ($14/$4.9k) as the engine that makes this offense go most nights. Projected 7-hitter 21-year-old Hye-sung Kim ($6/$2.0k) might merit a small investment as he carries an “OK” projection and should be one of the lower-owned options in the Heroes lineup tonight.
Favorite Stack: Lotte Giants
HR Call: Jae-hwan Kim (Doosan)
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