There are a few things that are just important when it comes to daily fantasy sports. In KBO DFS the short list so far includes picking the right starting pitcher off the top, stacking the right teams together, and setting an alarm clock. As those of you who hang out in the Awesemo Slack channel at odd hours know, I’m typically awake a few hours before lock getting things together. This was not the case last night. Somewhere along the way I managed to doze off, popping back to consciousness exactly 15 minutes before lock. Just late enough that I couldn’t cancel pending entries and had to scramble. Fortunately, between Awesemo’s projections and the top stacks tool, I was able to knock out the quality entries I needed in even that limited amount of time sparing myself some stupidity shame.
A bit of a weird one last night, with a lot of entries on DraftKings getting cancelled and returned when one of the scheduled games started a couple minutes early somehow. Per DraftKings policy any entries that were edited after the start of that game were declared invalid, reduced to zero, and the entry fees refunded to the player. FanDuel didn’t seem to have an issue with this, for better or worse.
The slate saw more low-scoring or lopsided games than what we’ve grown accustomed to with the KBO. 2 of the 5 games were decided by more than 6 runs, and only 3 of the teams managed to score more than 3 runs. Import starters Drew Gagnon and Chris Flexen both posted big scores and were key to strong constructions with some commonly owned bats flaming out. The night favored pitching overall, with 8 of the 10 starters scoring more than 30 points on FanDuel. On the offensive side of things the night was carried largely by KT Wiz stacks, the team that was ranked first in the top stacks tool prior to lock.
The bulk of this analysis comes directly from reviewing Awesemo’s KBO DFS projections and the top stacks tool. Check out the rest of our KBO content, Awesemo’s projections, rankings, and ownership on the site for all your KBO DFS needs.
As usual, I’m going to look game by game, calling out a hitter or two from each team, and giving some top stacking options as we go. Pricing and popularity will be considered, more so as KBO DFS trends begin to emerge over the coming weeks. The numbers included with Suggested Stack are the projected lineup positions I would target for stacking that team, but do not restrict yourself exclusively to those spots. For example, if it says Wyverns 3-6 it means 3,4,5,6 in the projected lineup. If it says 1-2-3-5 it means those guys. If it means a two-man it will say so. I’m also going to start trying to include positions more, hopefully it helps speed up the process of finding guys as you build lineups.
With lock still hours away (5:30am), official lineups have not been released, so be sure to double-check status before you plug players into your lineup.
Final footnote before we dive in, Josh is off this week so keep an eye out for some starting pitching notes as we go through games here.
KBO DFS Picks: Game Breakdown for DraftKings + FanDuel
Hanwha Eagles @ KT Wiz – 10 run total (4.54/5.84) – Suggested Stack:  Wiz 4-5-6
The Wiz came into last night’s game ranked number 1 in the top stacks tool and did not disappoint KBO DFS owners who looked in their direction. Getting contributions from up and down the lineup, the Wiz jumped all over the Eagles, chasing the Hanwha starter after 12 hits and 6 runs in only 4 innings. Hanwha looks to get the offense going again tonight against 18-year-old rookie hurler Hyeong-jun So ($25/$7.5k), who is making his 3rd start of his career. To this point the 6’2 202lbs right-hander has pitched mostly effectively, yielding only 2 earned runs in each start, but he has also only struck out 2 hitters in each of those starts. So ranks out toward the middle of Awesemo’s starting pitcher projections tonight on a relatively weak pitching slate, but I think it’s fair to be skeptical of his upside and he doesn’t seem to be coming at much of a salary discount. Overall, the Eagles fail to inspire much confidence with their bats. In the interest of not just naming Seung-yol Lee and moving on every day, let’s look at leadoff hitter Eun-won Jung ($8/$5.2k) who was mentioned here a few times last week. The first thing that really pops is the continued discrepancy in price between sites. DraftKings clearly things a lot more of the 20-year-old second baseman than FanDuel does. Jung’s career numbers show growth from his limited rookie year through his sophomore campaign, decreasing his k% from 22% to just 16.2% while maintaining about a league average OBP. If he can continue to limit strikeouts and increase his on-base numbers by drawing more walks, the kid who scored 83 runs, drove in 57, and stole 14 bases in 2019 could improve on those numbers and deliver a lot of low-owned value through the season.
The Eagles are countering with a teenager of their own, Ee-whan Kim ($26/$6.7k) and his very high price on FanDuel. Kim has 2 capable starts under his belt in 2020 after a short but effective season last year. As we’ve seen with numerous KBO pitchers, the issue here is whether he will be striking anyone out and whether he can limit the number of baserunners he has to worry about. Through limited history the base on balls has been an issue for Kim. He ranks dead last in Awesemo’s pitching projections tonight, carrying a number around ½ that of the top options. With that projection and his price tag there doesn’t seem to be any reason to get to Kim in this matchup. The KT Wiz bats, on the other hand, look very appealing again tonight. With a whopping implied run total approaching 6, the Wiz give us a lot of options to work with. Jae-gyun Hwang ($9/$4.7k) is projected to hit 6th in this lineup tonight and should not be left off the bottom of your Wiz stacks. The veteran infielder has posted a WRC+ more than 15% better than league average 6 times in his 10-year career and knows how to barrel the ball, with multiple seasons of 20 or more homeruns.
 LG Twins @ Samsung Lions – 11 run total (5.87/5.48) – Suggested Stack: Twins 1-4
Sometimes the best matchups on paper just don’t work out, that’s baseball. Last night this was the case with the LG Twins, the bats simply didn’t show up. Tonight, in a game carrying the night’s highest run total, they go back to work against Samsung Lions starter Tae-in Won ($22/$7.0k) who has made 2 shaky starts so far this year. The 20-year-old right hander doesn’t offer a lot to like, strikes out far too few hitters, and struggles to keep the ball in the yard. Won ranks near the bottom of pitching projections tonight for good reason and should not be relied upon for anything other than extreme differentiation. You can probably guess that this is going to make the Twins bats a good play on paper again tonight, let’s hope they don’t leave the lumber in their hotel rooms this time. The top 4 hitters in the Twins lineup tonight (Chun-woong Lee, Hun-soo Kim, Eun-sung Chae, Roberto Ramos) all grade out very well in Awesemo’s projections and carry affordable pricing individually or as a collective. They will be popular for KBO DFS owners, but they make for a fantastic stack on both sites just off the top of the LG batting order. Everyone in the Twins lineup projects strongly tonight. There is nothing at all wrong with looking further down this lineup or mixing and matching constructions from the top and bottom and in wrap-around stacks. If you go that route, don’t ignore projected 8-hitter, catcher Kang-nam Yoo ($8/$3.6k). Yoo will likely be under-owned for the quality projection he carries tonight, and my HR model appears to like him, dropping him into an unexpected 7th overall.
Min-ho Lee ($23/$5.0k) is another teenage rookie. Lee makes his first start of the year for the Twins tonight, having pitched twice out of the bullpen to respectable results so far in 2020, yielding only 3 hits and an unearned run over 4 innings, although he is yet to strike anyone out. Lee doesn’t project well on either site, but at a price lower than some hitters he has to be in the conversation at SP2 on DraftKings. The lowly Lions got Tyler Saladino ($9/$4.4k) back in the lineup last night and he promptly did not matter at all. If he moves up in the order tonight Saladino does make sense to work into any Lions stacks, however. Projected 2 and 3 hittes, Dong-yeop Kim ($11/3.0k ) and Ja-wook Koo ($9/$4.7k) have affordable prices and should see some opportunity to drive in runs tonight, making them viable here.
Lotte Giants @ Kia Tigers – 10 run total (5.29/5.05) – Suggested Stack: Giants 1-4
Lotte fell flat last night in a game where they again carried some reasonable expectations. This is a team that was expected to be in a rebuilding year that happened to come out of the gate hot, so it bears consideration that they may not be as good as they looked the first two weeks of the season. But it’s early to jump to that conclusion. Ki-young Im ($21/$5.9k) is starting for the Tigers tonight and he’s simply too cheap on DraftKings. Im ranks as Awesemo’s 3rd highest projected starting pitcher on the night and is priced below some hitters. This is a better SP2 option than the Twins pitcher, but KBO DFS owners should never confuse him with a good pitcher. This is a value play, not an upside play. Im puts way too many men on base which is reflected in his bloated ERA and FIP each of the last few years. Giants hitters will have an opportunity to get on base tonight, with things coming down to their ability to exploit those spots and get runs on the board. Keep an eye on this stack’s ownership in the top stacks tool, if they’re going under-owned due to the popularity of Im, it might make sense to get over the field on them. Min and Son both look excellent atop the lineup again, and cleanup hitter Dae-ho Lee ($13/$4.5k) ranks 3rd in my HR model tonight and has a strong projection from Awesemo. If Lee gets a hold of one in the right spot it’s going to go out and it could be the difference in a GPP.
The Kia Tigers went a bit under the radar last night and paid off owners who got to them. With a 6-run performance, the Tigers were one of the better offenses on a relatively quiet night. Tonight, they look to keep the momentum going against Se-woong Park ($27/$6.2k) who looks like a whole lot of nothing at that price on FanDuel, ranking in the middle of the projections. On DraftKings he’s another relatively cheap option, but he doesn’t inspire much confidence with his middling strikeout numbers and habit of giving up the home run. The Tigers projections appear to be cooling slightly from where they had been, except for 3 and 4 hitters Preston Tucker and Hyung-woo Choi. Chan-ho Park ($11/$4.6k) remains atop the lineup and provides a ton of speed, though he hasn’t been running very much to this point in 2020. It remains to be seen if this is a change in strategy or just the result of circumstance. Using Park to set up the power behind him is the approach to a Kia stack here. Projected 5-hitter Ji-wan Na ($8/$3.5k) has been offering KBO DFS owners discounted power on a nightly basis. He picked off a homer from the 4 spot in my model earlier in the week, and ranks 5th tonight. If you go to the Tigers don’t overlook him.
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NC Dinos @ Doosan Bears – 10.5 run total (5.43/5.43) – Suggested stack: Bears 2-5
When I first typed that line, I accidentally had a 105 run total, which might prove to not have been too far off in this one. Oddsmakers like this to be another slugfest between these two powerful teams, and as of my last check they were a dead heat on the money line. The Bears are starting 33-year-old crafty lefty Hui-kwan Yu ($22/$9.3k), about whom the sites seem to disagree vehemently. Coming in next to last in pitching projections on both sites, Yu is flat-out unplayable at that price on DraftKings. Getting to him on FanDuel would only be another differentiation play on a night with limited options at pitcher. Yu had a few effective strikeout years earlier in his career, but his numbers since 2017 have completely cratered, and he looks to be a good spot to target with some Dinos bats. If we’re looking in that direction, we want to be in the top 5 in the order, who daily readers will be pretty familiar with at this point. FanDuel continues to stubbornly refuse to change the price on Aaron Altherr ($9/$5.2k), making him stick out quite a bit hitting 2nd in this lineup, and helping make things work with the Dinos stack. Until they bump him up by several dollars you can expect to keep seeing him mentioned here. If you want to include 6-hitter Jin-hyuk No ($10/3.1k) in some stacks as a differentiator he projects as an OK option tonight, and could catch some important variance for you.
The Bears draw Jae-hak Lee ($24/$9.9k) tonight, after getting cut off at the knees by Chang-mo Koo in last night’s game. Lee is a capable starter and could be sneaky for the money on FanDuel. On DraftKings his price is a bit high for the projection he’s carrying. Lee does have the ability to strike out KBO hitters, but with such a high implied run total against a proven lineup, I’ll be looking elsewhere on both sites. With just 6 runs in their 2 games so far this week people are going to start wondering what happened to the mighty Bears. This might be their return to the big numbers in the box score, however, with the entire top half of the lineup carrying strong projections. At least to projected 6-hitter Jae-ho Kim ($9/$2.4k) all of the Bears are playable in various combinations tonight, with the primary obstacle continuing to be their pricing on FanDuel. On DraftKings there is enough value in the top of the Doosan lineup that you can get to essentially any combination you’d like. On FanDuel however, pricing 3 key hitters at $17 makes things tricky. If you can make it work, building with all 3 of those hitters continues to make for a strong approach both in projection and from something of an anti-optimizer play, as it’s not an easy construction to reach.
SK Wyverns @ Kiwoom Heroes – 9 run total (4.20/5.11) – Suggested Stack: Heroes 2-3-4-6
Coming into the rubber game of this series, Heroes’ starter Hyun-hee Han ($24/$7.7k) carries the honor of being Awesemo’s highest projected pitcher on both sites tonight. The effective young starter has several years of KBO experience under his belt and offers reasonable strikeout upside, with some talent for keeping hitters from reaching base, from a KBO perspective anyway. The Wyverns are carrying one of the lowest implied run totals on the night, and there’s not a tremendous amount to love about this lineup. Our pal Jamie Romak picked off the HR call for us last night and looks like one of the better projected options in the SK lineup tonight if you’re inclined to go that route. Hitting 2 spots ahead of Romak, leadoff hitter Kang-min Kim ($8/$3.0k) is carrying a respectable projection tonight and should be low-owned as someone to build into your Wyverns stacks.
The Wyverns are countering with Seung-won Moon ($24/$8.8k) who also projects well for us tonight, despite the relatively high implied run total for his opponent. Like Han, Moon has a few years of experience already and has some ability to sit batters down with a K. He really struggles with keeping the ball in the yard however, making the Heroes an appealing option for some power tonight. There are several home run hitters in this lineup, and we can drop a few of them into a stack, or use two together in a two-man. Something has to give in this one, I really like the look of the Heroes bats in Awesemo’s projections tonight. A lot of green in the conditional formatting, and green means go. Byung-ho Park ($12/$4.9k) is too cheap on both sites, and makes a fantastic option again tonight cleaning up for this team. Don’t get hung up looking at box scores on what he’s done so far this season, this is a slugger who can absolutely mash, and he’s probably 25% too cheap. Building down from 1 to Park, or including the 5 and/or 6 hitters in a stack with him is the way to go here tonight.
Favorite Stack: Kiwoom
HR Call: Byung-ho Park
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