Well, it seems like 5:30 a.m. is an adventure, and maybe a bit much to ask of people early on. FanDuel’s big GPP fell about 2,700 entries short of the cap, and both sites had some extreme ownership oddities, with a not insignificant share of KBO DFS players garnering ownership despite not being in the starting lineup. This translates to some significant edge for those willing to do a bit of digging and don’t mind keeping some strange hours with us. After not filling it does look like FanDuel cut their prize pool in half and lowered entry fees, but DraftKings is coming back with another $50,000 to first event.
For those who would like to play but are risk-averse when it comes to building lineups, Awesemo has added a starting lineup probability column to his projections. You can refer to this when hand-building, or even upload it directly into an optimizer then manage your constructions by creating rules around a minimum total ownership probability. It’s not perfect, but it might help.
Watching these games can provide a little bit of important edge as well. Last night we picked up on a little bit from current Milwaukee Brewer Josh Lindolm during his ESPN appearance. Lindbolm talked a little about how the ball was not only juiced in the past but was also non-standard with the home team able to select the ball they wanted to use each game. He went on to claim that the KBO ball comes out of the box with slickness that the American and Japanese balls don’t have, challenging pitchers who rely on off-speed stuff, and comparing it to throwing a cue ball. MyKBO founder Dan Kurtz also clued us in that Kiwoom Heroes shortstop Ha-seong Kim is a potential MLB posting candidate, so he’s name to keep an eye on.
Speaking of edge, Awesemo’s projections, rankings, and ownership will be FREE until Friday, and Josh Engleman is breaking down your pitching options for the day.
Once again, I’m going to look game by game, calling out a hitter or two from each team, and giving some top stacking options as we go. Pricing and popularity will be considered, more so as trends begin to emerge over the coming weeks. The numbers included with Suggested Stack are the projected lineup positions I would target for stacking that team, but do not restrict yourself exclusively to those spots. For example, if it says Wyverns 3-6 it means 3, 4, 5, 6 in the projected lineup. If it says 1-2-3-5 it means those guys. If it means a two-man it will say so.
With lock still hours away, official lineups have not been released, so be sure to double-check status before you plug players into your lineup.
KBO DFS Picks: Game Breakdown for DraftKings + FanDuel
Hanwha Eagles at SK Wyverns – 9-run total (3.91/5.31) – Suggested Stack: Wyverns 1-4
Coming into the rubber match the Eagles are looking to steal a series from SK, despite coming into all three games as the underdog. With five runs in two games, Hanwha hasn’t exactly exploded out of the gate, but they might have some deceptive opportunity tonight. The Wyverns starter, 29-year-old Jong-hoon Park, appears to be one of those starters who is constantly dancing in and out of trouble, with a low strikeout rate and a high walk rate, I expect the Eagles to be on the base-paths tonight, we just need someone to step up and knock some runs in. Hoying and Lee remain quality options in the middle of the lineup. Projected five hitter, 37-year-old veteran Kwang-min Song ($11/$3,200) is coming off a 2-for-3 day with a home run, and could be sitting in a nice spot to drive in some additional runs tonight, despite what look like some diminished power numbers last year.
The Wyvens came through for us a bit better than on opening day, putting a 5-run game, but a lot of the production came from right-fielder “Double” Dong-min Han ($11/$4,000), who put two over the fence, driving in three of the five runs. Han is a mainstay in the Wyverns lineup and is probably a few bucks too cheap. He is one of the enigmatic power hitters of the KBO whose home run totals cratered after the standardized de-juiced ball came into play. After hitting 29 home runs in 2017 and 41 in 2018, Han only managed 12 last year without a significant change in opportunity. Even with that, we have no problem running him back as part of a Wyverns stack tonight if you’re looking in that direction. SK takes on veteran Shi-hwan Jang, who was converted from a reliver to a starter by Lotte last year at age 31. The Wyverns are ranking out third on Awesemo’s top stacks tool, but their ownership looks to be around twice their top stack percentage on both sites.
Lotte Giants at KT Wiz – 9.5-run total (4.78/4.92) – Suggested Stack: Wiz 3-6
With 16 runs over their first two games, Lotte is rapidly becoming the darling of the DFS world. Tonight, they catch KT’s young up and coming starter Je-Seong Bae, who had a strong rookie campaign in 2019. Vegas seems to like this one for a close game, with both teams garnering respectable run totals. Lotte has gotten offense from all over the lineup, including a few questionable sources, like last night’s home run hitter Hoon Jung, who does not profile to hit many more during the season. Stick with the meat of the order here. Starting your stack up top with veteran speedster Byung-hun Min ($11/$4,300), who gets on base enough to give the young pitcher fits with his speed, seems like a good approach to the Giant offense again tonight.
The Wiz’ run total comes down a tick tonight, but it doesn’t seem like it would have much to do with the Lotte pitching, with the Giants slated to use an opener with some disastrous history. After disappointing with only 2 runs on opening day then keeping owners sweating until putting up 4 late runs yesterday, people might be looking to get away from KT today, which provides some appeal. Currently ranking around even between ownership and top stack percentage, the Wiz are in the middle of Awesemo’s top stack rankings. It might be the perfect time to pounce on Mel Rojas Jr. ($16/$5,600) who has let owners down two days in a row at a high price, third baseman Jae-gyun Hwang ($9/$4,400) is a masher yet to get things going through two games, who provides some savings in the middle of the order to help with this stack.
NC Dinos at Samsung Lions – 8.5-run total (4.81/3.88) – Suggested Stack: Dinos 1-4
The Dinos are just fun to watch. With a few bombers in the middle of the order, including Aaron Altherr ($13/$5,900), a former MLB outfielder who provides both power and speed. Watching Altherr’s teammates shut him down on celebration of his first KBO homer in the dugout was worth a chuckle last night. Altherr carries a much better price tag on FanDuel than DraftKings, where he’s the third-most expensive player on the slate. FanDuel also wised up a bit on our Na ($11/$3,900) but he still remains underpriced on both sites for the talent. That said, he’s also not sneaking past the public. NC offers more potential through the lineup than a lot of the competition and are priced accordingly. Getting to a stack anywhere from the top through middle of this lineup seems like it will be a strong option on a lot of days.
Samsung still sucks. They picked up three solo home runs to account for all their production last night and might have found their way into some productive DFS lineups for that reason. There’s not much appeal to this lineup again, but they’re projecting for next to no ownership. Using some of their better options in two-man stacks could be a way to keep lineups using chalky larger stacks a bit different from the public. Dong-yeop Kim ($8/$2,800) could be someone to use in that approach, providing savings for a guy who has hit at least 20 home runs twice in his 2 1/2 KBO seasons.
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Doosan Bears at LG Twins – 9-run total (5.42/3.80) – Suggested Stack: Bears 2-5
The Bears rewarded our faith last night, putting up 5 with most of the production coming from the expected hitters. It wasn’t a massive performance, but they certainly did enough to give a big leg up toward cashing constructions, and they were a part of a lot of high-placing GPP lineups. Ranking out once again as Awesemo’s No. 2 stack on both sites, and drawing very even numbers between top %, value, and ownership, Doosan looks like a good option again tonight. The Bears have the 2nd highest run-total on the slate, as one of three teams projected in the mid-5-run range. Joo-wan Choi ($5/$2,900) knocked one out of the park last night as a very low-owned option, and looks like a good savings in the middle of this lineup again tonight, although his power history is questionable, with 26 home runs in 2018 but not more than seven in limited action in any other season. At 32 he might just be the Brady Anderson of the KBO, so buyer beware. Jose Fernandez ($16/$6,000) and our three days running mentioned pal Jae-Il Oh are where to spend your money if you’re stacking and saving with Choi.
The Twins are coming up as Awesemo’s bottom ranked stack on both sites tonight. Facing former Mets washout Chris Flexen, LG has the lowest total on the slate, and doesn’t provide many good options. Similar to Samsung, they will be virtually unowned and could provide a small level of differentiation if you drill the right player choices. Tonight’s dice roll in that space, if we have to, is going to be Roberto Ramos ($14/$3,300) who is trying to make some headway in the KBO after putting up some strong seasons in the minors for Lancaster and the PCL’s Albuquerque Isotopes, where he hit 30 home runs last year (note, this is a high-elevation thin-air park that plays pretty Coors-y). At 25, Ramos is still young enough to earn himself a lot of money with a strong KBO year and could be an option to make you some as well.
Kiwoom Heroes at Kia Tigers – 9.5-run total (5.69/4.04) – Suggested Stack: Heroes 2-3-4-6
After an 11-run Opening Day, the Heroes were pretty popular last night and only put up 3 runs, letting a lot of us down. Ranking out as Awesemo’s top stack again tonight, with high but seemingly appropriate ownership, Kiwoom makes for a good option again here, with Kia looking like they’re geared up for an opener-bullpen game. The law firm of Park & Park (Byung-ho and Dong-won) from last night’s recommendations remains strong and affordable in the middle of the lineup. Young outfielder Jung-hoo Lee ($13/$4,700) provides a nice combination of hit tool, on-base skills, and speed from the middle of the lineup. He’s hit around 30 doubles each of the last few seasons, which makes us think a few more might go over the fence this year as the 21-year-old continues to develop. Lee should be a part of your Kiwoom core tonight.
Kia is drawing a small share of ownership tonight, ranking third from the bottom in Awesemo’s stacks tool. Drawing talented young pitcher Won-tae Choi doesn’t inspire much faith in the Kia lineup. If we had to pick someone for a one-off, we might as well try to find some savings and low ownership. Min-Sang Yoo ($8/$3,100) ticks both of those boxes, but not too many others. Only if you have to for some reason.
Favorite Stack: KT Wiz
HR Call: Roberto Ramos (LG)
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