KBO DFS: Spotlight Hitters DraftKings, FanDuel

You’re welcome for the free money last night. No, I’m not talking to all our recent winners – and there have been a lot of them! – just beating myself up for not hearing my alarm and missing KBO DFS lock for the first time. Dead-on-arrival placeholders are never a good recipe for success. Planning, even on a long day with very little sleep, is an important aspect of everything we do in DFS, lesson (re-)learned.

And what a slate I missed! We were all over some bats and stacks that really went off, I love seeing the feedback on Twitter and elsewhere, so please keep the winning screenshots coming. Other than Jokisch it looks like most of the chalky pitching held last night as well, including some inexpensive options that should have led to some great stacks with the Bears, Dinos and Twins all going over 10 runs.

KBO DFS Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel Hitters

Every game total tonight is over 10, so KBO DFS players should have a lot of options from which to choose. I spy a few quality spots that might be going overlooked again tonight, let’s see if we can get a bit different from the public and keep the GPP momentum going.

The bulk of this analysis comes directly from reviewing Awesemo’s KBO DFS projections and the top stacks tool. Check out the rest of our KBO content, Awesemo’s projections, rankings, and ownership on the site for all your KBO DFS needs.

As usual, I’m going to look game by game, calling out a hitter or two from each team, and giving some top stacking options as we go. Pricing and popularity will be considered, more so as KBO DFS trends begin to emerge over the coming weeks. The numbers included with Suggested Stack are the projected lineup positions I would target for stacking that team, but do not restrict yourself exclusively to those spots. For example, if it says Wyverns 3-6 it means 3,4,5,6 in the projected lineup. If it says 1-2-3-5 it means those guys. If it means a two-man it will say so. I’m also going to start trying to include positions more, hopefully it helps speed up the process of finding guys as you build lineups.

With lock still hours away (5:30am), official lineups have not been released, so be sure to double-check status before you plug players into your lineup. Friday schedule changeover, so new match-ups tonight!

Kia Tigers @ Doosan Bears – 11.0 run total (5.57/5.80) – Suggested Stack: Tigers 1-5 (DK) / Bears 2-5 (FD)

Well all right then, Mr. Kim. I mentioned Ho-ryung Kim as a potential play since he’s become entrenched as the leadoff hitter for the Tigers, but then equivocated slightly by pointing to his career history which belies his hot start. Kim responded by mashing another home run. Another nice game from Tucker and this lineup was off and running for a total of seven. The Tigers bounce back up the top stacks tool tonight and ownership is down on DraftKings. They look like a great option on both sites, I like getting to these third and fourth ranked stacks when the ownership projections on them make sense, hopefully that trend is becoming obvious. If you’re going to the Tigers, I think we can say that Preston Tucker’s little slump is over now. He’s one of the priciest options on both sites but only around 15% popular, which is too low. Keep rolling this play if people don’t want to spend up for him. Using Tucker along with Ji-wan Na ($9/$3.5k) grabs most of this lineup’s power most nights. The only indicator I’m seeing against the Tigers here is that said power is looking down sharply in my home run model. Bears’ starter Young-ha Lee’s five homers allowed in 163.1 IP last season and zero through 28 innings this year probably contributes to that. Still, offenses can roll without homering as we’ve seen, this is a good spot.

The Bears box score for last night reads like the game should have included the campy Adam West Batman’s “BIFF!”, “BLAM!” and “KAPOW!” animations for every blow the core of this order dealt. A homer and four RBI from each of your four, five and six hitters will do that for a team. The Bears won a 14-8 game that wasn’t even as close as that, with the Wiz stealing three late runs off the bullpen. Tonight, the Bears get Min-woo Lee who has been mostly excellent through five starts this year. The match-up has the Bears pushed down the top stacks tool for a change. There looks like a great opportunity with them on FanDuel, with the stack in the middle of the rankings at around 10% success probability, roughly double their current ownership. On DraftKings they drop further in the rankings and are more popular, making the move less appealing and less contrarian. If you go to the Bears, don’t mess around. Jose Miguel Fernandez ($18/$6.2k), Jae-il Oh ($16/$3.6k), Jae-Hwan Kim ($17/$5.8k), and Joo-hwan Choi ($11/$2.3k) might not be the easiest construction but they’re all under 10% owned on FanDuel. To paraphrase “Wee” Willie Keeler, “…(roster) ‘em where they ain’t.” If people are shying away from quality like this go the other direction.

KT Wiz @ Lotte Giants – 11.5 run total (5.89/5.97) – Suggested Stack: Wiz – 2-3-4-5-7

The Wiz were on the other side of that big Bears explosion and just couldn’t keep pace. A late rally got them within six, in a contest that ended 14-8. The lineup got a lot of small contributions, but no one hitter really went off, making it unlikely that any Wiz were in winning lineups. Tonight, the odds-makers have both teams slated for nearly six implied runs, in what could be a close game. The Wiz are pumped up to second on the top stacks tool, but they’ll be more popular than I’d like to see. Of the primary bats, Yong Ho Jo ($8/$2.9k) and Kyung-soo Park ($9/$3.9k) are both coming in at playable ownership. Using them both in a smaller stack, or combined with more popular Wiz bats, then doing one other thing differently, might get you where you need to be. Jeong-dae Bae ($10/$2.7k) gets a last-second plug here. Third day in a row, he’s also getting ignored and has been raking.

The Giants implied total is probably a bit inflated by the match-up here. The Wiz are rolling out veteran Min-soo Kim for the start, filling in for William Cuevas. Kim has pitched exclusively from the bullpen this year and probably isn’t stretched out to see more than a couple innings before turning the game over to the Wiz bullpen. If you remember our bullpen rankings – which I’ll get updated for the start of next week – the Wiz relief corps has been atrocious so far this year. They might have gotten worse. This is a spot I think the Giants bats can really capitalize on, but they rank in the middle of the stacks tool. DraftKings KBO DFS players appear to be ignoring Dae-ho Lee ($10/$4.3k) and, to a lesser extent, Ah-seop Son ($12/$3.8k). Take advantage on that site, both have a nice projection from Awesemo and are ranking out nicely in my home run model. Lee is far more popular on FanDuel, however, where it might be tougher to build differentiation into your lineup. Pivot that spot to Chi-hong An ($9/$3.0k) over there in your tighter builds. On both sites, Jun-woo Jeon ($14/$4.5k) crushes both of those site metrics as well.

LG Twins @ Kiwoom Heroes – 10.5 run total (5.01/5.84) – Suggested Stack: Twins 1-5

Sure, I missed a night where most of my favorite Twins bats put up nice scores, but you guys don’t know how good this nap was. Maybe not a $25k GPP win good, but good. At 17-9 the second place Twins are heading into Seoul to face the 15-12 Heroes. If you caught today’s HR options, you saw that the power metrics on the Twins were down in my home run model. They get Won-tae Choi tonight. Choi has been a high-quality option with three quality starts in five tries this year, and a crisp KBO history. His 2020 FIP is about a half-run lower than his ERA as well, suggesting there might be even more to give here. That said, the Twins are a lineup of professional hitters with a few absolute mashers. They rank in the upper-middle of the top stacks tool and, (Shhhhhh!) they’re looking less owned than they should be on both sites. The most interesting part of their popularity numbers tonight is that they look almost entirely focused on Bob Ramos ($17/$4.0k). Ramos is at 50% ownership on both sites. Every other Twins bat is under five percent. Do I need to draw the map to KBO DFS picks treasure, or are you seeing it? Get on Eun-sung Chae ($11/$3.0k), Hyun-soo Kim ($14/$5.2k), and Chun-woong Lee ($10/$3.3k) up top, on DraftKings Kang-nam Yoo ($8/$3.1k) makes for a fantastic catcher as a wrap-around option in this stack. And yes, I’m fully aware I just re-jinxed Yoo by mentioning him after he went 6-8 with two homers and six RBI the last two with me laying off.

The Heroes have been bouncing around the KBO DFS stacks rankings a bit this week. Today sees them knocked down to the low-middle again. Opposing pitcher Chang-gyu Lim takes a contact and walks approach to his pitching so far in his career but has managed to dramatically reduce the latter so far this year. Lim has been effective despite allowing too many hits, but what really stands out is his 2.96 FIP contrasted with his 4.43 ERA. Lim could just be pitching above his head, but he may have taken a step. The Heroes should provide a great test. Awesemo’s projections aren’t bad for this lineup, despite where they landed in the rankings. Byung-ho Park ($12/$4.8k) could be here most days on merit, but today I think his ownership discrepancy between sites is noteworthy. Despite being relatively the same on the pricing scale from one to the other, Park is staring down the barrel of 37% ownership on FanDuel, but only 15% on DraftKings. This probably has something to do with the sheer number of high-quality options at first on that site but grab the opportunity where you can. Dong-won Park ($4.2k) will be owned, but not at unplayable levels; as the most popular Heroes hitter on DraftKings though, I might instead consider Yoo from the Twins at catcher in a KIW-LG stack to get off the public constructions. Byung-woo Jeon ($5/$2.0k) can help you get to anything you’d like, hitting sixth at min-price.

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NC Dinos @ Hanwha Eagles – 10.0 run total (6.24/4.14) – Suggested Stack: Dinos 1-5

I hope you guys got to some Dinos last night. Several of the right guys did their thing for KBO DFS owners, and the team put up a 10-spot. The Dinos got homers from Yang and Altherr, with Yang capitalizing on second-hitter Hee-dong Kwon’s four walks, driving him in both times the catcher put bat on ball. The bats should do a lot to support starter Mike Wright tonight, and the Dinos are heavy favorites, pulling their implied run total above six. The public seems not to have noticed, the Dinos are the highest ranked stack, but drawing less than expected ownership on both sites. Time to pounce once again. They’re facing Shi-hwan Jang, whose hilarious control we’ve been following here all year. In 24.2 innings, Jang has now added two wild pitches and four hit batsmen to his already ridiculous career totals. ERA near seven, check. WHIP over two, check. This is a killer spot. On FanDuel, with no positional requirements, guys like Myung-gi Lee ($9/$3.0k ), Suk-min Park ($10/$4.9k), Jin-hyuk No ($9/3.4k) who we look at all the time are under 5% owned. Leadoff hitter Min-woo Park ($13/$4.8k) is under 10%. Play that as a stack or mix and match these guys with Na, Yang, and Altherr to your heart’s content.

The Eagles draw Mike Wright and I’m expecting to see feathers all over the field as he mows them down. Wright was mostly cruising against this lineup 10 days ago until back to back sixth inning walks turned into a three-run homer. Assuming he cleans that up tonight, Wright should have no issues, and I don’t want much of the Eagles lineup. They rank dead last in the stack and are oddly over-owned on FanDuel. The quality options are essentially boiled down to Jared Hoying ($10/$4.7k) and Sung-yeol Lee ($9/$3.4k), and if you want a third bat for a small stack you could toss either Eun-won Jung ($8/$5.0k) or Tae-kyun Kim ($7/$3.4k) to those two. Using the contrarian leverage play with a top stack and the next best pitching options should be your approach if you’re playing Eagles here.

Samsung Lions @ SK Wyverns – 10.0 run total (4.78/4.44) – Suggested Stack: Wyverns 3-6

The Lions are back down the ladder in the rankings tonight after getting shut out by the Twins staff. The slight favorites here, the Lions are facing Ricardo Pinto, who might be the worst of the imported starters to this point in the 2020 KBO season. If you’re just going by the raw projections, Tyler Saladino ($8/$3.9k) looks like a hole in the three-spot in this lineup. He doesn’t have a great stick, make no mistake, but at 0.1% ownership on both sites, if you’re going to the Lions, I can’t imagine leaving him out just based on the batting order opportunity. If he’s hitting eighth feel free to cross him off your KBO DFS picks list. I don’t mind the two hitters above Saladino in the lineup, but I like the idea of building down from three here, with Won-seok Lee ($8/$3.7k), my Lions HR pick but also the most popular guy on the team; plus Heon-gon Kim ($7/$3.3k) or Dong-yeop Kim ($9/$3.1k), for a quality three-man. Just keep going down the order or look back up top to fill out a full stack.

The Wyverns have me scratching my head a bit here today. Awesemo’s projections seem to like them a lot, but they’re undercut by the ranking in the stacks tool, yet people are on them on both sites. Add-in the fact that Jeong Choi ($14/$4.8k) is essentially breaking my home run model with his explosive rating and I’m really not sure which way to point. Choi and Romak are both great power options but will be very popular. If they drop in that department, I’ll be there. The public exposure to Eui-yoon Jeong ($7/$2.8k) makes him a great option on both sites if team ownership stays high. Popping him into a three-man or building-in also under-owned Jin-Gi Jeong ($9/$3.9k) helps get a lot of Wyverns constructions to “good enough”, even when you click on the chalky power. The added bonus of positional flexibility on the two biggest bats also helps weaponize the Wyverns. Keep an eye on where the numbers fall in the stacks tool as we approach lock.