KBO DFS: Spotlight Hitters DraftKings, FanDuel

Ugh. Now I hate life when it rains on two continents. I just can’t seem to get it right with South Korean rain patterns. With last night’s slate carrying two games that were looking shaky going into lock, KBO DFS players had to decide about the KIA vs. KT and LG vs. SK games. After a brief delay, the Kia game played, while the SK vs. LG contest 20 miles away was postponed.

Kia ended up capitalizing on the limited opportunity in a game that was called after five innings. KT starter Min Kim only lasted an inning and a third, with the Tigers pounding out 10 total runs in the short contest. The Lotte Giants bats also did some damage, with a dozen runs coming mostly from the top of the lineup. The final key on the offensive side of the game turned out to be the Bears, who waited until Dinos starter Drew Rucinski yielded the game to the bullpen before dropping seven late runs on the Bears bullpen. Four quality pitching performances gave KBO DFS owners a lot of flexibility to work with across lineup constructions, so there were numerous ways for things to come together for those who avoided the weather-related mistakes.

KBO DFS Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel Hitters

Game totals are way up across the board tonight, and we have an oddball situation to deal with. The SK vs LG game was rescheduled for a 2:00 A.M. EST start, with the teams playing a double-header. Both DFS sites have moved lock up to accommodate this game and are not including the second game on the slate. The sites are offering late swap so owners will benefit from being able to monitor lineup changes and make swaps in the interim between start times.

The bulk of this analysis comes directly from reviewing Awesemo’s KBO DFS projections and the top stacks tool. Check out the rest of our KBO content, Awesemo’s projections, rankings, and ownership on the site for all your KBO DFS needs.

As usual, I’m going to look game by game, calling out a hitter or two from each team, and giving some top stacking options as we go. Pricing and popularity will be considered, more so as KBO DFS trends begin to emerge over the coming weeks. The numbers included with Suggested Stack are the projected lineup positions I would target for stacking that team, but do not restrict yourself exclusively to those spots. For example, if it says Wyverns 3-6 it means 3,4,5,6 in the projected lineup. If it says 1-2-3-5 it means those guys. If it means a two-man it will say so. I’m also going to start trying to include positions more, hopefully it helps speed up the process of finding guys as you build lineups.

With lock still hours away (5:30am), official lineups have not been released, so be sure to double-check status before you plug players into your lineup.

SK Wyverns @ LG Twins – 9.5 run total (4.52/5.19) – Suggested Stack: Wyverns 1-3-4 (DraftKings) / Twins 1-4 (FanDuel)

The early game on the slate is basically a re-hash of how things looked yesterday, despite the Wyverns moving Ricardo Pinto up to take the start. The Twins are keeping the rotation intact with Min-ho Lee taking the ball.

With the same match-up, here’s the same take: “Jeong Choi ($14/$5,000) and Jamie Romak ($11/$5,100) are in play for KBO DFS owners again tonight, but the Wyverns are not an exciting stack. Twins starter Min-ho Lee displayed a quality arm with some strikeout upside last time around and could have another nice game tonight. Only Romak will be popular if you’re going to the Wyverns, so build-out a stack with Choi, Eui-yoon Jeong ($7/$2,600) and Soo-kwang Noh ($6/$3,200) if you feel like getting Wyverns in your life.” I’ll add on that I missed Jin-gi Jeong ($9/$3,700) with a higher-than-usual power projection in my home run model last night, so feel free to include him from the top of the lineup.

The Twins get a different match-up here, taking on import starter Ricardo Pinto. Pinto has made four quality starts in six tries so far this year, giving up a heavy volume of hits, but only having it really cost him twice. The low run total has the usually impressive Twins suppressed in tonight’s top stacks tool, ranking among the bottom few teams on both sites.

The Twins got their three-hitter Eun-sung Chae ($11/$3,200) back for their last game night and KBO DFS owners should include him in any constructions with these bats. A hitter of Chae’s quality with nearly no ownership when similarly, profiled hitters routinely draw 40% or more is an opportunity every time. The only hitter drawing significant ownership is – say it with me – Bob Ramos ($17/$4,700). You can offset his absurd numbers by adding Chae and Hyun-soo Kim ($14/$5,500). Outfielders Chun-woong Lee ($9/$3,400) and Y.T. Park ($10/$2,200) make fine options as bookends of a stack as well.

Hanwha Eagles @ Lotte Giants –10.5 run total (4.51/6.24) – Suggested Stack: Giants 9-1-2-3-4

The top of the Giants lineup blew up again last night, pounding out a five run second inning on the back of a Ah-seop Son three-run home run, in what would become a 12-2 rout. Tonight, the Giants will send Jun-won Seo to the hill to face the pathetic Hanwha Eagles, now losers of 16 straight games.

The Eagles limited run total and weak lineup simply don’t offer many quality KBO DFS picks on any given night. Even taking on a middling starter like Seo doesn’t get their implied total over five runs tonight, but you’ll find the Eagles higher in the stack rankings than usual. The unfortunate offset to that is that they are projecting for far too much ownership on DraftKings. Their seven percent probability to be the top stack is doubled by their exposure in public lineups, making them untouchable on that site for me. On FanDuel things draw about even, but I’m never comfortable trying to find reasons to get to the worst offense in the game.

If you have to go with the Eagles, Tae-kyun Kim ($7/$3,100), Jared Hoying ($9/$4,800), and Yong-kyu Lee ($8/$4,000) all have respectable ratings in my home run model and acceptable projections from Awesemo, making them your go-to bats if you’re masochistic enough to keep rolling Eagles out there night after night. Beware the massive ownership number on Hoying on both sites.

Coming off two big games, the Giants are looking to finish off the Eagles in style here. Taking on Min-jae Jang should help them out. Jang’s numbers have been ugly so far in 2020, and I can’t put my finger on a year in his 10-year career that I would call good. This is a spot to target again, and KBO DFS players have taken note, with the Giants ranking third but drawing twice as much ownership as probability of success, with a team number in the 30% range on FanDuel.

If you’re getting chalky about things, this looks like a great spot for veteran masher Dae-ho Lee ($10/$3,800) and the bats above him in the lineup fill out the people’s stack well. Even Dixon Machado ($10/$4,000) will be popular from the bottom of the order tonight. The most viable alternate approach might be nine-hitter Lo-han Kang ($5/$2,400) as part off a wraparound.

Kia Tigers @ KT Wiz – 11 run total (6.17/5.07) – Suggested Stack: Tigers 1-5

The game that I thought would be the more likely one to fully postpone ended up playing five innings and becoming crucial to the slate. The Tigers rank first on both sites in the stack tool, but things are close at the top. Odds-makers have pumped the total for tonight’s tilt up to 11 runs, and the Tigers are heavily favored, but they are one of four teams with an implied total over 6 runs tonight, so ownership will be a key factor.

Wiz starter Min-soo Kim has been an absolute punching bag so far in 2020, so if the stars align properly, getting to the Tigers bats could have GPP winning upside. They offer quality power projections from the heart of the order in my home run model and pull quality numbers in Awesemo’s projections on both sites. Ji-wan Na ($9/$3,600) is an extremely popular option with a great shot at going deep tonight. He will be widely owned but is an essential part of a Tigers stack. Pricey teammate Preston Tucker ($17/$5,700) and less expensive Min-san Yoo ($7/$3,700) will both be less popular and snap into place in this stack nicely. Chan-ho Park ($9/$3,600) remains viable and untouched at the bottom of the lineup if you’re willing to sacrifice a potential plate appearance.

The Wiz need draw moderately capable Min-woo Lee tonight, and their implied total that just scrapes over five runs has them pushed down toward the bottom of the stack rankings. The Wiz are drawing less than 10% ownership across the board on DraftKings, and only Mel Rojas Jr. is popular on FanDuel at over 20%. I like getting to some of the other Wiz bats if you’re inclined to play them tonight. One of last night’s featured bats, Yong-ho Jo ($8/$2,900) is still too cheap for the production he’s been providing KBO DFS players. Leadoff hitter Woo-jun Sim ($10/$3,800) is unrealistically unreliable for a leadoff hitter, but the Wiz keep rolling him out. When he gets on base he does have the speed to swipe a few or score on a base hit, but he’s not one of my preferred table-setters in the KBO.

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Doosan Bears @ NC Dinos – 11.0 run total (4.94/6.32) – Suggested Stack: Dinos 1-3-4-5-7

The Bears and Dinos were engaged in a pitcher’s duel for a while last night, with Drew Rucinski giving the Dinos six innings of 2 run ball, and Raul Alcantara answering by giving up only 1 run over seven. Once the Bears got to the Dinos bullpen things erupted, with the game ending in a 9-1 Bears romp.

Tonight, the Bears have another import starter to figure out in Mike Wright, which has their run total under five again. As we saw last night, things aren’t entirely about the match-up against the starter, however, and with the Bears ranking in the middle of the top stack tool with only half the appropriate ownership, there might be sneaky appeal here. The Bears will be under 10% owned on both sites, but they offer quality projections and great pricing on both sites, and positional flexibility on DraftKings. The heart of this order makes for a quality three-man again with Jae-il Oh ($15/$3,600), Jae-hwan Kim ($17/$5,400), and Jose Miguel Fernandez ($18/$5,900), and I wouldn’t be shy about adding Kun-woo Park ($10/$3,200) up top or anyone through Jae-won Oh ($7/$2,000) hitting sixth.

Facing young contact pitcher Young-ha Lee has the Dinos pumped up in the implied runs column once again, with the second-highest total on the slate by a tenth of a run. The Dinos are also falling to the middle of the stack tool, but I think the matchup might be a bit stronger than that, with Lee pitching to a ton of contact. On FanDuel the Dinos are drawing less ownership than they should be, and they’re quite playable on DraftKings as well, making them a good stack option for KBO DFS players on both sites. The usual suspects are all in play from the heart of the order. Don’t forget about the quality we’ve seen from Jin-hyuk No ($9/$3,600) so far, the middle-infielder has been an excellent cog in the lower half of the Dinos lineup, and should be a part of stacks.

Kiwoom Heroes @ Samsung Lions – 11.0 run total (6.46/4.80) – Suggested Stack: Heroes 2-3-4-5-7

The Heroes dropped a snoozer to the Lions last night 4-1. Good but not great pitching on both sides, only one home run, not many hits, just a slow game in general. The oddsmakers like the Heroes again tonight, facing Dae-woo Kim. The Heroes have the highest implied run total on the slate, and rank near the top of the stack tool. The ownership looks about right, so this will likely be an important inflection point for the slate tonight.

The big bats in the middle are in play for the Heroes again here, with Byung-ho Park ($12/$5,000) drawing a great rating in my home run model. Adding any of the top three hitters in the lineup with him works in a stack, as does fifth hitting slugger Dong-won Park ($10/$4,800) who will once again be popular where catchers are required. Sixth and seventh hitters Byung-woo Jeon ($5/$2,400) and Hye-sung Kim ($7/$2,600) offer ownership relief and some flexibility late.

The Lions didn’t exactly prove me wrong last night, but they put up four and weren’t completely awful. Tonight, they’ll be looking at Won-tae Choi on the hill. Choi is a quality young KBO arm and knows how to whiff hitters at a decent clip. This won’t be a good spot for the Lions again, and KBO DFS players would do better to look elsewhere for bats. With one of the lowest implied totals on the slate, the best bets here would be up top with Sang-su Kim ($9/$4,500) through Dong-yeop Kim ($8/$3,000) in a straight-line stack.