KBO DFS: Spotlight Hitters DraftKings, FanDuel

Nothing like a full five game slate to get things back on track. A 54 run night gave us plenty of KBO DFS picks to make competitive lineups with, and some surprises on the pitching side of things shook up the top of GPP standings just enough to make it interesting. And we had a few really fun ballgames.

Trailing for most of the night, the Dinos got into the Doosan bullpen for seven runs over the eighth and ninth, coming away with a 9-3 victory. The Tigers bats came through as expected and were a great play on the night, while the Eagles and Wyverns both came up with surprise 7 run games. The Twins were the big letdown on the night, getting shut out at their levels of ownership broke a lot of KBO DFS hearts last night.

On the pitching side of things, it wasn’t Drew Gagnon or Dan Straily that turned in the critical performance as expected, instead the Wyverns’ Geon-wook Lee pitched no hit ball over six to book the win and the night’s highest pitching mark on DraftKings. Warwick Saupold would similarly surprise with a solid game against the Wiz.

KBO DFS Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel Hitters

With a relatively flat looking slate and no team carrying an implied total over six runs tonight could be a bit trickier than usual. KBO DFS owners will need to mine lineups carefully to get to some less popular quality bats. We don’t have many expected lineup changes, but we could see the odd player get rest with a slightly earlier weekend start time. Keep an eye on changes as we head toward lock, jumping on a surprise change to a batting order as part of a key stack could be GPP winning tonight.

The bulk of this analysis comes directly from reviewing Awesemo’s KBO DFS projections and the top stacks tool. Check out the rest of our KBO content, Awesemo’s projections, rankings, and ownership on the site for all your KBO DFS needs.

As usual, I’m going to look game by game, calling out a hitter or two from each team, and giving some top stacking options as we go. Pricing and popularity will be considered, more so as KBO DFS trends begin to emerge over the coming weeks. The numbers included with Suggested Stack are the projected lineup positions I would target for stacking that team, but do not restrict yourself exclusively to those spots. For example, if it says Wyverns 3-6 it means 3,4,5,6 in the projected lineup. If it says 1-2-3-5 it means those guys. If it means a two-man it will say so. I’m also going to start trying to include positions more, hopefully it helps speed up the process of finding guys as you build lineups.

With lock still hours away (4:00 A.M. EST), official lineups have not been released, so be sure to double-check status before you plug players into your lineup.

Kia Tigers @ Kiwoom Heroes – 8.5 run total (3.86/4.83) – Suggested Stack(s): Heroes 1-5

The Tigers lived up to the expectations of the KBO DFS world last night, jumping all over starter Young-gun Jo in the third inning and taking an 8-6 victory. The Heroes bats were friskier than expected against Drew Gagnon, collecting eight hits and only striking out three times in his 5.1 innings, but they only managed to plate three runs against him.

Tonight, the Tigers draw the Heroes’ big lefty starter Eric Jokisch. Jokisch has been cruising through the KBO so far this year to the tune of a 1.63 earned run average and a 3.23 FIP and sits 10^th among qualified starters with a 14.3% strikeout to walk rate. The Tigers have one of their lowest totals of the season and the lowest on the slate by nearly three quarters of a run. The Tigers rank near the bottom of stacks on both sites and there is little leverage to speak of. The spot just isn’t great, your argument for playing it would be entirely ownership based. With no one on these bats on either site you can play whoever you want and there are professional hitters to choose from at the top of this batting order. Hyung-woo Choi ($11/$4,400) smacked another home run last night and doesn’t see much of a price bump. Preston Tucker ($17/$5,500) has been expensive for weeks but has maintained enough productivity to support the price, particularly when it can be offset by sticking him with Ji-wan Na ($9/$3,400) who is a daily under-priced upside play. That three man might be enough Tigers for my tastes, but if you’re going all-in on it I prefer Min-sang Yoo ($7/$3,100) and Ho-ryung Kim ($10/$3,500) to anyone else, based on both Awesemo’s projections and their near-average marks in my home run model.

Hyun-jong Yang draws the start here for the Tigers and odds-makers are giving him the credit he deserves with this game total. The 32-year-old starter has been pitching well so far in 2020, sitting 16^th among qualified starters with an 18.6% strikeout rate and a 4.52 FIP, he’s plenty capable of shutting this lineup down over six innings. The Heroes rank in the bottom half of stack rankings and are drawing their correct share of ownership, this spot doesn’t really stand out for me. The Heroes lineup is relatively top-heavy with ownership landing on most of those bats. The powerful Parks will be plenty popular on DraftKings, but you can play Dong-won ($9/$5,300) on FanDuel where he doesn’t carry the hook of the catcher requirement and will be under seven percent owned. Byung-ho ($14/$4,400) has been raking in his week back from a brief stint on the injured list. He makes a great power option most nights and now his contact skills are coming back into the equation. Offset some of the ownership he’ll carry by getting Jung-hoo Lee ($14/$4,800) and Keon-chang Seo ($11/$4,100) into your Heroes builds but keep expectations within reason here.

KT Wiz @ Hanwha Eagles – 10.0 run total (5.73/4.50) – Suggested Stack(s): Wiz 2-6

The Wiz were mostly held in check by Warwick Saupold and the Eagles last night, in a 7-4 loss to the last place squad. Saupold yielded a first inning home run to Mel Rojas Jr. and two more late in the sixth, but the Wiz were never really in the game after giving up six runs in the first three innings.

Tonight, the Wiz jump to the top of stack rankings and they look to be in prime position against Min-woo Kim. Kim is 0-4 with two quality starts in seven tries this year. He does strike hitters out, currently running ninth among qualified starters with a 22.2% strikeout rate. That’s about all he does well, however, as his 5.71 FIP and KBO leading 2.01(!) HR/9 indicate. To put that number in perspective, the second-worst mark among qualified starters is 1.60. This is a smash spot for the Wiz and my home run model likes what it sees as do Awesemo’s projections. Getting to them might be a it tricky though. On FanDuel they look slightly over-owned and all the important bats are saddled with big numbers like the 40.2% projection on Mel Rojas Jr. ($17/$5,900) who has been excellent but is also pricey. That’s a tough sell for me at that much public exposure. On DraftKings the team ownership is more in-line with expectations, but individuals are all spiking into the 20% range. Yong-ho Jo ($8/$2,700) doesn’t have the biggest projection but he’ll be by far the least popular play from the top half of the Wiz lineup, which could make him a critical addition to more popular hitters like Baek-ho Kang ($16/$6,100) and Jeong-dae Bae ($9/$2,900). As you click the rest of this stack into place, you’re going to need to think about getting different with your pitching or leaving some salary on the table to ensure a unique build.

Who are these guys and what did they do with our terrible Eagles? Two surprising nights in a row yielded 16 runs for KBO DFS owners who like to ride the shallow end of projections and probability, but let’s not get too excited just yet. The Eagles drop back to the bottom of the stacks tool on both sites and there’s not a lot to like about their lineup. With William Cuevas’ middling results so far in 2020 box score watchers could mistakenly get on the Eagles a bit too much here, making them even less appealing as a play. If you go this route do so in limited fashion. Sung-yeol Lee ($9/$3,600) is carrying this team’s high-water mark in my home run model today and looks strong in Awesemo’s projections from the cleanup spot in this lineup. A straight-line build from one through five would probably be the simplest approach to this team if you’re inclined to play them.

LG Twins @ SK Wyverns – 9.5 run total (5.06/4.64) – Suggested Stack(s):

And I called it a crisis yesterday before the 7-0 shutout at the hands of the lowly Wyverns. This is a full-on dumpster fire for LG right now. The degree to which this lineup has collapsed after the loss of Eun-sung Chae and now Y.T. Park in losing seven straight games has been surprising.

Ricardo Pinto draws the start for the Wyverns here but the odds-makers are favoring the Twins in a close one. Their implied total of just over five is nothing to get excited about however, and the stacks tool has them ranked fifth on FanDuel. They land third on DraftKings however, and could be important for positional play on that site. Leadoff hitter Chun-woong Lee ($8/$3,000) should be a productive bat atop this order and keep an eye on the two-spot. If Ji-hwan Oh ($9/$3,000) is hitting there he makes a low-owned play on FanDuel, while if it’s someone else they might be a quality pivot where Oh is drawing more ownership. Make sure to include Hyun-soo Kim ($15/$5,100) in your DraftKings builds. He appears to be getting inappropriately ignored tonight, the three-hitter is entrenched in an RBI spot in this lineup and is one of the better power hitters in the KBO on most nights.

The Wyverns got a home run from Jamie Romak ($13/$4,600) last night in cruising to their 7-0 victory, but this is a hard lineup to trust on most slates. Romak and fellow power hitter Jeong Choi ($15/$5,000) both look great again in my home run model as well as Awesemo’s projections, but the question with this team becomes where else to go. Kang-min Kim ($7/$3,100) is an option from later in the lineup or KBO DFS owners could look for more opportunity up top with Ji-hoon Choi ($5/$2,600) and his rock-bottom pricing. Either way this is one of the lowest ranked teams in the stack tool facing KBO-strong starter Chan-heon Jung.

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NC Dinos @ Doosan Bears – 10.0 run total (4.70/5.52) – Suggested Stack(s): Dinos 1-3-4-5-7 (DraftKings / Bears 2-5 (FanDuel)

Well the Dinos sure made KBO DFS owners hold their breath last night. In what turned into a fun romp late, most of this game was a tight tense matchup that was the ESPN broadcast game. An early pitching duel ended up with the Bears taking a 3-2 lead after six innings before the Dinos finally broke through against the ugly Doosan bullpen for seven runs in the final two frames in a 9-3 victory.

A matchup against Raul Alcantara finally has the Dinos pushed off the top of the stack rankings and their implied total is below five tonight, but the ownership projection is still running about half what their probability of being the best stack looks like. This spot looks a lot like what Kia had on the board last night. Getting to the terrific Dinos bats at off-balance ownership is the kind of play we want to make, so I don’t mind going back to the well pretty heavily here. Stud catcher Eui-ji Yang ($14/$5,700) is the only player drawing more than 10% ownership on either site with his large – but low for him – 27% share on DraftKings. Sung-bum Na ($18/$5,800) is finally the highest priced hitter on FanDuel, remember where we began the year on pricing with some of these guys? He makes a killer play any night you can get him into your lineup, but it’s becoming tougher to put together a lineup that has everything we want from the Dinos included. Min-woo Park ($12/$5,100) is similarly priced up on DraftKings now, but remains a strong option leading off for this team.

Sung-young Choi has made two extremely shaky starts for the Dinos so far this season and doesn’t have much career pedigree to brag about. The Bears should be able to jump all over a pitcher like this and they rank second in stacks tonight. There appears to be a distinct ownership advantage with this stack on FanDuel as well, which should make them a priority for KBO DFS players on that site. They’re a great option on DraftKings also, but they’ll be in more lineups over there. Jae-ho Kim ($9/$2,800) and Kyoung-min Hur ($8/$2,500) make quality low-cost lower-owned options from down the batting order here, which can help differentiate your constructions with the higher projected hitters above them. Slugger Jae-Hwan Kim ($17/$5,100) and three-hitter Jae-il Oh ($15/$3,900) both have strong projections from Awesemo and are rating above average in my home run model.

Samsung Lions @ Lotte Giants – 9.5 run total (4.36/5.35) – Suggested Stack(s): Giants 9-1-2-3-4

Another game that kept KBO DFS players waiting around for a while for their offense last night, this one went five innings before seeing any runs scored. Ultimately Tae-in Won out-dueled Dan Straily and these teams needed a 10^th inning to decide a 6-4 Lions win.

Adrian Sampson will take the mound for the Giants tonight looking to build on by far his best start of the season last time out. Sampson will be faced by a Lions lineup that doesn’t inspire a ton of confidence on paper, but lands in the middle of the stack rankings. This isn’t my kind of spot though, the ownership is outweighing their quality here, despite some advantageous pricing. Ja-wook Koo ($9/$4,900) is the most popular hitter in the lineup by far, but also the most capable. It’s difficult to build without him here so focus on adding a bit of the quality around him like Won-seok Lee ($8/$4,300) and Hak-ju Lee ($7/$4,300) make great options for that. Dong-yeop Kim ($8/$3,400) is projected to hit down this lineup again here early in his return, but he offers this lineup’s best rating by quite a bit in my home run model and looks good for a late-lineup option in Awesemo’s projections.

Ranked third in stacks on FanDuel but just fifth on DraftKings, the Giants are a bit enigmatic tonight. There are quality bats in this lineup and the pitching matchup against Jung-hyun Baek is nothing to worry about. Jun-woo Jeon ($12/$4,400) blasted another home run for us last night and is still under-priced, making him a good play frequently. This lineup looks steady from one through six tonight and you can easily look to nine for the wraparound play with Byung-hun Min ($9/$3,300). Hoon Jung ($9/$3,800) and Ah-seop Son ($13/$3,800) up top are fantastic table-setters for the veteran mashers behind them and should contribute if this stack goes off tonight. Mix and match these bats if this is your play.