With a wild week of KBO DFS postponements and double-headers behind us I think we’re all looking forward to a nice easy to predict Mond … yeah, we’ve got at least one game looking like a rainout and two others with threatening conditions 12 hours out from game time. No rest for the weary; which should really be the official motto of bleary-eyed KBO DFS owners grinding lineups at 4:30 in the morning.
The week saw a handful of excellent games and quality performances. Things got a lot more interesting at the top of KBO standings as well, with the Heroes, Bears and Twins all now in striking distance of the Dinos. Jose Miguel Fernandez had a monster four home run week and his .370/.420/.714 with 40 runs 17 home runs and 45 RBIs has him in the early running for a KBO MVP and he might have a shot at his lofty 2018 total of 43 homers.
KBO doesn’t play on Mondays, which makes this a prime opportunity to run down some of our early individual league leaders (note: 145 PA cutoff):
Hits/AB – Avg: Jose Miguel Fernandez (.378 73/193), Jin-sung Kang (52/139 .374), Jung-hoo Lee (.371 69/186), Mel Rojas Jr. (.370 70/189), Ah-seop Son (.345 60/174)
On-Base %: Jose Miguel Fernandez (.442), Jung-hoo Lee (.438), Jun-sung Kang (.428), Ah-seop Son (.427), Yong-ho Jo (.425)
Slugging %: Mel Rojas Jr. (.714), Jin-sung Kang (.662), Roberto Ramos (.644), Jung-hoo Lee (.624), Preston Tucker (.601)
HR: Mel Rojas Jr. (17), Sung-bum Na, Roberto Ramos (13), Aaron Altherr (12), Jae-hwan Kim, Byung-ho Park, Preston Tucker (11)
RBI: Mel Rojas Jr., Jae-hwan Kim (45), Aaron Altherr (42), Sung-bum Na (41), Preston Tucker (40)
SB: Keon-chang Seo (11), Ji-hwan Oh (9), Chi-hong An, Aaron Altherr, Woo-jun Sim (8), Ha-seong Kim (7), Dixon Machado (6)
KBO DFS Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel Hitters
With some ugly pitching going we have some juicy looking implied team totals tonight and four of the five game have totals of 10 runs or higher. The rain in the KT Wiz at LG Twins game looks awful though. KBO DFS owners will need to monitor this situation going into lock. Running separate scenario-based lineup crunches and getting ahead of a pivot like this is my preferred approach when we get lineups early enough. Hand-builders will be more challenged to make late changes so be very careful building any large volume of lineups with those teams.
The bulk of this analysis comes directly from reviewing Awesemo’s KBO DFS projections and the top stacks tool. Check out the rest of our KBO content, Awesemo’s projections, rankings, and ownership on the site for all your KBO DFS needs.
As usual, I’m going to look game by game, calling out a hitter or two from each team, and giving some top stacking options as we go. Pricing and popularity will be considered, more so as KBO DFS trends begin to emerge over the coming weeks. The numbers included with Suggested Stack are the projected lineup positions I would target for stacking that team, but do not restrict yourself exclusively to those spots. For example, if it says Wyverns 3-6 it means 3,4,5,6 in the projected lineup. If it says 1-2-3-5 it means those guys. If it means a two-man it will say so. I’m also going to start trying to include positions more, hopefully it helps speed up the process of finding guys as you build lineups.
With lock still hours away (5:30 A.M. EST), official lineups have not been released, so be sure to double-check status before you plug players into your lineup.
Hanwha Eagles @ Kia Tigers – 10 run total (4.19/6.07) – Suggested Stack(s): Tigers 3-7
Don’t let a few outbursts fool you, the Eagles still suck, they’re just managing to lose games with a bit more style. At 3-7 over their last 10, they don’t offer much to get excited about in the win column, and even their capable bats are largely stymied by the lack of surrounding talent when it comes to scoring for KBO DFS. The Tigers are a much better team and have a few terrific bats in a lineup that is clawing for relevance at fifth in the standings. This one has a minor threat of rain on what looks like a very humid day, so keep an eye on it.
The Eagles are set to get mowed down by one of the KBO’s better young starters tonight. Ki-young Im has been absolutely dealing so far in 2020, posting a 2.91 earned run average to a 3.13 FIP while striking out 22.2% of hitters and walking just four percent. This is just not a spot to attack with bats. The most I would do is use Kwang-min Song ($9/$3,900) or Eun-won Jung ($8/$4,400) from either side of a stack of Tae-kyun Kim ($7/$3,600) and Sung-yeol Lee ($9/$3,700). Lee is pulling 14% ownership on FanDuel but none of the other bats will be popular, which is the best I can say for these guys tonight.
The Tigers, on the other hand, look like a strong option on tonight’s slate. As one of two teams with an implied total over six runs, the Tigers have a lot of KBO DFS picks to choose from. Eagles starter Shi-hwan Jang harnessed his stuff for a “Dr. Jekyll” start last time out, but I’m betting we get the much more frequent “Mr. Hyde” tonight, and if we do the Tigers will get some bonus opportunity from his walks, hit batsmen and wild pitches. The Tigers rank fourth in the stack tool on both sites, the public is on them on FanDuel but there looks to be some opportunity on DraftKings. Getting to the big bats from three through six will be the main goal, mix and match Ho-ryung Kim ($10/$4,000) and Sun-bin Kim ($8/$4,200) up top and catcher Seung-taek Han ($6/$3,600) from the seven spot as needed to get different and fill out positioning.
KT Wiz @ LG Twins – 10 run total (4.78/5.43) – Suggested Stack(s): Twins 2-3-4
The tea leaves just don’t look good on this one. With a big chance of precipitation and some concern from the good people on the ground who feed weather information to MyKBO, my best half-a-day early guess is this one gets rained out. As I touched on in the intro, you’re going to want to plan here so that you have options ready to go for multiple scenarios as news breaks coming up to lock. I would consider options for three versions, one with the game playing to completion, a half-played game that counts and for a slate with this game being postponed.
If they do play, the Wiz bats are looking more suppressed than we’ve seen them recently. The implied team total is below five going up against the Twins’ 2020 first round pick Min-ho Lee who has so far more than justified the draft capital. The kid has gone over 100 pitches in each of his last three starts, so the Twins trust him already. He delivered against the higher-quality Bears lineup over five innings the last time out, following two great starts against the Wyverns and Lions the week before. This is a tough spot for the Wiz, and they land in the bottom half of stack rankings. They aren’t drawing much ownership though, so if you’re inclined to draw against the youngster it’s somewhat justifiable. Mel Rojas Jr. ($17/$5,900) has been on fire and is among KBO leaders in most of the categories we care about. The pricey slugger will be the most popular part of this stack but hovering just over 10% on both sites he’s very playable. Clicking him together with bats like Baek-ho Kang ($16/$5,800) and Han-joon Yoo ($11/$3,200) as a three-man should play well. You can add Yong-ho Jo ($8/$2,500) and his .425 on-base percentage as a great table-setter up top or Sung-woo Jang ($8/$3,300) as a quality low-owned catching option where positions matter.
Discussing Roberto Ramos ($17/$5,600) and his power outage over the last two weeks has been interesting. This morning I jokingly referred to the famous Gambler’s Fallacy when someone who I know knows better said he would hit a home run if this game plays. Make no mistake, in much the same way 11 reds in a row doesn’t mean the next spin of the roulette wheel is any more likely to hit black than the last 10,000 were, the fact that he has not homered in his last 11 games does nothing to make him more likely to hit one tonight. The matchup against Min-soo Kim is fine for Twins bats here, but they rank near the middle of the stack tool and they look too popular. I think this is a spot where I want to get under the public exposure, particularly if pricey Ramos is going to stay popular. He projects as the highest fantasy point producer with the bat on both sites again, and the three bats ahead of him in the projected order look cooperative. It’s the rest of this lineup that concerns me. After Kang-nam Yoo ($10/$4,500) who will be popular as a catcher hitting fifth in this lineup the batting order pretty much falls off a cliff. If you can figure out creative ways to deploy them, limited usage of Yoo, Ramos, and guys like Ji-hwan Oh ($9/$3,400) in three-mans would probably be the move for me here.
Lotte Giants @ NC Dinos – 10.5 run total (4.07/6.72) – Suggested Stack(s): Dinos dealer’s choice
We should give them a little credit; the Giants have managed to stay relevant in the middle of KBO standings. Tonight, the odds-makers aren’t on their side, unfortunately, with Mike Wright taking the hill for the Dinos. With one of the two totals at 10.5 and most of the action going the Dinos way they’re pulling most of the implied scoring in this game.
The Giants will likely struggle to rack up many runs on import starter Mike Wright. Wright’s 1.2 run FIP to ERA differential suggests he’s been getting a touch lucky and benefitting from good defense, but other than a few reliable options it’s difficult to trust this team for KBO DFS production. Chi-hong An ($9/$2,900) has been making things happen from down-lineup for the Giants with his eight stolen bases on the year. The veteran has been struggling with getting on base, his OBP is down to .345 from a usually near-.400 level. If he starts getting more opportunities, he could be a productive option on a lot of nights. Teammate Ah-seop Son ($13/$3,400) is quietly among league leaders in OBP at .427, making him a strong option as a table-setter in front of the power bats for any KBO DFS owners who look this direction. Those two perfectly bookend the trio of Jun-woo Jeon ($12/$4,000), Dae-ho Lee ($10/$3,400), and Dixon Machado ($10/$4,200) who are all pulling respectable ratings in my home run model despite the quality matchup. There’s no issue using those bats in a straight-line stack and the positions all connect well with one another and three-man options from other teams.
The Dinos have cooled off notably from their torrid early-season pace, but they sill lead the KBO in the standings and in most offensive categories. A quiet week from Jin-sung Kang ($15/$4,900) saw him drop a few spots among statistical league leaders, if KBO DFS box score watchers are clicking someone else because of his recent cold week he’ll certainly have my attention here. Superstar catcher Eui-ji Yang ($14/$6,100) is always going to be popular, but he’s an integral bat here and checks in with a big power mark in the home run model. Awesemo’s projections agree with that as well as my rating on Sung-bum Na ($18/$6,100), these two are the class of the KBO on any given night. Hee-dong Kwon ($7/$2,900) has produced since filling in the two-spot in this order when Myung-gi Lee went to the injured list. If the public hasn’t caught up yet this is a guy to hammer into your Dinos stacks with confidence. This lineup is playable top to bottom, make sure you don’t forget Aaron Altherr ($16/$5,500) from later in the order and get creative with these builds. The Dinos rank first in the stack tool and the popularity looks playable.
Doosan Bears @ Kiwoom Heroes – 10.5 run total (5.55/5.18) – Suggested Stack(s): Bears 1-5
The Bears and Heroes square off again here in a battle of the second- and third-place teams in KBO standings. With just a a game separating these two in the loss column, this could be a critical early season showdown. The second of our two games with a 10.5 run game total, Vegas likes this one to be a lot closer and both teams are implied for over 5 runs tonight.
The Bears have the favorable side of the line here and there seems like a favorable ownership play on them on FanDuel once again if you want to pay up to be contrarian. They rank near the top of the stacks tool on both sites and should have middling Heroes starter Seung-ho Lee squarely in their sites. KBO DFS players had a fun surprise with Kun-woo Park ($13/$3,800) on Saturday night, despite the team announcing him as a starter he ended up not going and most of the lineup sites and optimizers didn’t notice. As part of a popular stack it was damaging to some otherwise quality constructions that we saw throughout GPP standings. There’s no reason to think he won’t be in the lineup tonight; he was off on Friday as well as Sunday and had today to rest but keep one eye on it just in case. Jose Miguel Fernandez ($17/$5,800) is pricey but continues to deliver quality and he won’t be too popular with that price tag. Similarly, Jae-il Oh ($15/$4,000) is both too cheap and not popular enough, making him a smash spot for stacks with this lineup. Jae-hwan Kim ($17/$5,200) is pricier but also under-owned. The pieces I like best in this lineup aren’t going to be the most popular, if you can figure ways to fit them in you might get out ahead of the field tonight.
The Heroes get the tougher end of this matchup with veteran Hui-kwan Yu on the mound. Yu has gotten a bit knocked around in a few of his starts this year, but we should ultimately see him pitch to form. The Heroes rank third in stacks on DraftKings but fifth on FanDuel, and the public should be on them in correct proportions. This is a lineup that, at a glance, I think I’d rather be under the public on tonight, but that’s not set in stone. The tricky part of playing these bats is the popularity on the main options. Beyond those obvious big bats in the middle, KBO DFS owners can look to Jung-hoo Lee ($14/$4,700) and current KBO steals leader Keon-chang Seo ($11/$4,000) for some differentiation.
SK Wyverns @ Samsung Lions – 9.5 run total (4.60/5.10) – Suggested Stack(s): Wyverns 2-3-4
The third game of the night with a touch of rain in the forecast is also my least favorite of the night. The lowest game total by a half-run doesn’t offer much for KBO DFS scoring and these two teams rank next to one another near the bottom of tonight’s stacks on both sites.
If you’re playing the Wyverns bats, you probably want to consider building your stack starting a bat down the lineup. The leadoff hitter in this projected lineup is difficult to trust despite putting up early quality in small samples. Ji-hoon Choi ($5/$2,800) is a rookie who doesn’t have a huge projection – likely due to the absence of sample – but he’s been raking so far in 2020 and is a very inexpensive angle into this construction that no one will be on. Put him in your lineup before you add Jamie Romak ($13/$4,800) and Jeong Choi ($15/$5,200)’s power. You can continue with Jong-wook Ko ($7/$4,200) and Kang-min Kim ($7/$3,300) if you want to get further out on that Wyverns limb. Kim would be my preference of those two, he rates better in the home run model and Awesemo’s model has him projected higher.
The favorable total and some recent usefulness has the Lions looking a bit over-popular tonight. I don’t love this spot even though they’re favored to win and implied for more than 5 runs. The Lions are better than I was giving them credit for early in the season, but this is never a team I want to get to in an spot that at most inspires indifference, least of all when they’re this popular. The bats you want if you’re looking to the Lions are scattered through this lineup, making them even more challenging to get right. Dong-yeop Kim ($8/$3,300) provides some down-lineup power and using him instead of Seong-gon Lee ($5/$2,700) at the bottom end of your Lions stack is probably sharp. Ja-wook Koo ($9/$4,700) is the class of the current Lions lineup hitting third and Hae-min Park ($7/$2,700) is a good option to connect him with.
Favorite KBO DFS Stack: NC Dinos (DraftKings) / Doosan Bears (FanDuel)
HR Call: Sung-bum Na (NC Dinos)
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