KBO DFS: Spotlight Hitters DraftKings, FanDuel

I seriously can’t believe it’s about to be July. Nearly two months into the KBO DFS calendar we can see the league starting to really take shape. With another month of action before any hope of NBA or MLB returning, it pays to pay close attention as players begin to regress toward who they really are.

The other thing it helps to pay attention to is the weather. Most of the time. Last night we had a game with 65-85% chance of precipitation through the entire game window and another with 5-15% forecast. You don’t have to be too experienced with DFS to guess which game ended up postponing three minutes before lock and which game played into the 11^th inning.

It was just a crazy night of DFS action. With the Kia vs. Hanwha game eradicating a 60% owned starter on DraftKings as well as wiping out a starter that a lot of sharps were on, plus the solid Kia bats, it was a mess. The LG game didn’t explode for the people who gambled on playing it, but there were plenty of runs to be had in the Giants vs Dinos game and in the Heroes lineup.

KBO DFS Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel Hitters

We’ve got one repeat game on the slate tonight along with a few high-end pitching spots, but game totals aren’t tragic. There should be several good options for KBO DFS picks tonight, and I think we might have a good low owned angle or two to look at. Perhaps the best news, the slate looks dry across all five games and there’s no double-header or early game to worry about despite the postponement.

The bulk of this analysis comes directly from reviewing Awesemo’s KBO DFS projections and the top stacks tool. Check out the rest of our KBO content, Awesemo’s projections, rankings, and ownership on the site for all your KBO DFS needs.

As usual, I’m going to look game by game, calling out a hitter or two from each team, and giving some top stacking options as we go. Pricing and popularity will be considered, more so as KBO DFS trends begin to emerge over the coming weeks. The numbers included with Suggested Stack are the projected lineup positions I would target for stacking that team, but do not restrict yourself exclusively to those spots. For example, if it says Wyverns 3-6 it means 3,4,5,6 in the projected lineup. If it says 1-2-3-5 it means those guys. If it means a two-man it will say so. I’m also going to start trying to include positions more, hopefully it helps speed up the process of finding guys as you build lineups.

With lock still hours away (5:30 A.M. EST), official lineups have not been released, so be sure to double-check status before you plug players into your lineup.

Hanwha Eagles @ Kia Tigers – 9.5 run total (3.77/5.99) – Suggested Stack(s): Tigers 3-7

This one is basically a rehash of where things were yesterday. The pitching matchup is the same and both teams should be rolling out the same lineups, and the totals are roughly where they were. We do know that the Tigers pitcher was pulling a huge 60% ownership share on DraftKings last night. That should come down slightly with a few other quality options, but he’s likely to be the highest owned starter once again. The Tigers bats were low-owned as expected and should be a good target again tonight, although the public might be going there a bit more than we were getting last night. Hanwha remains a bad spot, but the power is there for the bats mentioned in the original take below.

The Eagles are set to get mowed down by one of the KBO’s better young starters tonight. Ki-young Im has been absolutely dealing so far in 2020, posting a 2.91 earned run average to a 3.13 FIP while striking out 22.2% of hitters and walking just four percent. This is just not a spot to attack with bats. The most I would do is use Kwang-min Song ($9/$3,900) or Eun-won Jung ($8/$4,400) from either side of a stack of Tae-kyun Kim ($7/$3,600) and Sung-yeol Lee ($9/$3,700). Lee is pulling 14% ownership on FanDuel but none of the other bats will be popular, which is the best I can say for these guys tonight.

The Tigers, on the other hand, look like a strong option on tonight’s slate. As one of two teams with an implied total over six runs, the Tigers have a lot of KBO DFS picks to choose from. Eagles starter Shi-hwan Jang harnessed his stuff for a “Dr. Jekyll” start last time out, but I’m betting we get the much more frequent “Mr. Hyde” tonight, and if we do the Tigers will get some bonus opportunity from his walks, hit batsmen and wild pitches. The Tigers rank fourth in the stack tool on both sites, the public is on them on FanDuel but there looks to be some opportunity on DraftKings. Getting to the big bats from three through six will be the main goal, mix and match Ho-ryung Kim ($10/$4,000) and Sun-bin Kim ($8/$4,200) up top and catcher Seung-taek Han ($6/$3,600) from the seven spot as needed to get different and fill out positioning.

KT Wiz @ LG Twins – 10 run total (4.82/5.39) – Suggested Stack(s): Wiz 1-5

The game we were expecting to rain out ended up playing into the 11^th inning, because baseball is fun that way. KBO DFS owners who weren’t wiped out by the other game might have gotten to this one last night, but there was limited quality in the 4-3 Twins victory.

The Wiz draw quality KBO starter Woo-chan Cha tonight. Cha has been mostly good in 2020 and throughout his career. His 2020 FIP is in-line with his earned run average and he is 13^th among qualified starters striking out 21.1% of hitters. This is a tricky spot for Wiz bats. They rank fifth on in the stack tool on both sites but the difference between fifth and third tonight is negligible and they’re projecting for favorable ownership. Jae-gyung Hwang ($11/$4,600) is pulling the highest popularity mark on both sites, but at 23% on DraftKings and 15.6% on FanDuel he’s certainly playable as part of a stack. The rest of these bats are quality in a bad spot, if you go here it’s tough value paying a premium for the best two bats in this lineup in Mel Rojas Jr. ($17/$6,100) and Baek-ho Kang ($16/$5,800). It looks like Yong-ho Jo is headed back to a bench role, but monitor his status; if he’s starting, he could be sneaky here.

The Twins land fourth in the stack rankings on both sites tonight but they look a touch too popular as a team. I still want to get to this lineup; I just want to use some of the lower-owned building blocks in my constructions. Eun-sung Chae ($13/$3,100) is ideal for this purpose if his 6.5% FanDuel ownership projection holds up. This is a top-end KBO hitter coming back from injury in a prime lineup spot, if he’s overlooked pounce on it. At 17% ownership he’s a great play on DraftKings as well, but you’ll need more help to get unique. Kang-nam Yoo ($10/$4,400) is a bit of a help going down the lineup, but the bottom three hitters in this order offer KBO DFS owners very little in Awesemo’s projections tonight. Mixing them in with limited exposure might be enough to matter if you catch lightning in a bottle with one though.

Lotte Giants @ NC Dinos – 10.0 run total (3.62/6.69) – Suggested Stack(s): Dinos, pick ‘em.

This game really popped last night in a big 10-8 Giants victory. Dinos starter Mike Wright put up a serviceable start, giving up only three runs in six innings but coming out of the game without the lead. The Dinos bullpen would collapse however, yielding five runs over the next two and seven overall.

Facing Chang-mo Koo, the nominal ace of the KBO, it’s difficult to justify playing much of the Giants from anything but a leverage perspective here. They rank at the bottom of the stack tool and have only about a three percent chance of being the best option, but less than one percent of lineups will have them tonight, so it won’t take much to get ahead of the public if you wanted to. With Koo cracking 40% pitching exposure on both sites it could be worth considering for a moment. Again, this team does not look good in the stack tool or Awesemo’s projections, so know your likely outcomes going in. I would go straight to the trio of Ah-seop Son ($13/$3,500), Jun-woo Jeon ($12/$4,100) and Dae-ho Lee ($10/$3,600). If you want to get really wild with it and include Hoon Jung ($9/$3,500) up top and Dixon Machado ($10/$4,300) to fill it out it’s a major dice-roll that pays off very infrequently, but when it does it wins a GPP. Which is in no way a real endorsement, odds are Koo smokes these guys.

With a massive implied total closing in on 7 runs, the Dinos look ready to smash the slate here tonight. Their total is nearly double that of their opponents in one of the most lopsided lines of the year. Giants starter Won-sam Jang got bombed in his one start so far in 2020 and has never been good. At age 37 he just might be running out of time to prove himself and I’m not liking his chances of getting it done here. Play Dinos bats greedily tonight. I want to make as many combinations of these bats with quality second stacks as I can, and I’m a bit surprised to see projected ownership mostly in-line with their top-ranked probability of being the best option. I want to get over the field where I can. The ownership projections have some favorable options on both sites here as well. Sung-bum Na ($18/$5,700) is one of the best bats in the league and is running at about 10% on both sites. Jin-sung Kang ($15/$4,300) is similarly high-quality and low-owned but will likely be down the lineup tonight. Inexpensive middle infielder Jin-hyuk No ($9/$3,600) is a guy that also makes his way into these builds frequently with his price and position flexibility. Don’t let the optimizers get carried away with that build though, there are high-end middle infield options on other teams and the Dinos offer interesting three outfielder-corner-catcher constructions that play well with them.

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Doosan Bears @ Kiwoom Heroes – 10.5 run total (4.78/5.94) – Suggested Stack(s): Bears 2-4

The Heroes made a big statement against the Bears last night creating a bit of separation in the standings. The Heroes put up a monster 11-run total with most of the damage coming late against the bullpen in a familiar KBO story. The Heroes managed to score all those runs without hitting a home run for KBO DFS owners, but there were contributions from numerous key hitters.

The Bears were shut down and limited to just two runs in an embarrassing 11-2 loss last night. This lineup will be looking to get going. They were without Kung-woo Park once again last night, the hitter has only been in the lineup for one out of the Bears’ last four games, so keep an eye on him. The Bears stack ranks in the bottom half of teams tonight, but with no FanDuel ownership to speak of they could be an interesting spot to get over the field with. Heroes starter Hyun-hee Han is capable, has a good track record, and has been pitching well, he just doesn’t do much to really stand out or make him someone to avoid with bats. Once again Jose Miguel Fernandez ($17/$5,900) is a pay-up to be contrarian option on both sites. On FanDuel you can put him together with basically anyone. On DraftKings you need to get a touch more unique, but options like Jae-il Oh ($15/$3,900) and Jae-hwan Kim ($17/$5,400) are also high end and under-appreciated.

Young-ha Lee is a big young starter with an up and down track record but a lot of upside after a terrific 2019. His 2020 has been shaky so far. His 4.58 FIP is significantly better than his 6.29 earned run average, but he’s carrying a completely unsustainable 11.3% walk rate while striking out just 14.6% of hitters. The Heroes rank second in the stack tool, but the public has noticed them tonight and they’ll be extremely popular. Scoring 11 runs the night before does that for a team. The big bats will be the highest owned, but it’s difficult to leave guys like Dong-won Park ($9/$5,100) and Byung-ho Park ($14/$4,200) out of your lineup. Finding low-owned options to click together with them is the trick. Hye-sung Kim ($9/$2,700) is an option on FanDuel that way but is one of their most popular players on DraftKings because of his positional value. If you really want to get creative Byung-woo Jeon ($5/$2,200) isn’t entirely awful from the bottom of the lineup as a wrap-around play, knowing that you’re sacrificing a plate appearance opportunity in getting there.

SK Wyverns @ Samsung Lions – 9.0 run total (4.23/4.96) – Suggested Stack(s): Lions 2-3-5

Last night’s game was mostly remarkable for quality pitching performances on both sides. Wyverns starter Jong-hoon Park dominated striking out eight in only 4.2 innings, while Chae-heung Choi matched with six innings of shutout ball.

The Wyverns are looking over-matched against David Buchanan tonight. Their implied team total is crashing toward 4 runs and they rank near the bottom of the stack tool again. They are another option in the low probability but low exposure category, but there are better spots to get to. Jong-wook Ko ($7/$4,400) or Kang-min Kim ($7/$3,400) would be the two guys I would favor as attachments to the two power bats in Jamie Romak ($13/$4,800) and Jeong Choi ($15/$5,300) who are the staples of this lineup. Jae-won Lee ($6/$3,800) could be a good pivot at catcher on DraftKings but he’ll be hitting toward the bottom of this lineup and might be difficult to fit together with the top other bats.

The Lions get Seung-won Moon tonight. Moon has quietly been one of the better starters in KBO this year. With six quality starts in nine tries and a 1.13 WHIP to go with a 3.23 ERA and matching 3.38 FIP and an 18.4% K-BB%, this is a starter to like and it’s tough to justify the bats. The Lions rank in the bottom half of teams in the stack tool, if you want to play these guys Ja-wook Koo ($10/$4,900) is a strong option hitting ahead of Dong-yeop Kim ($8/$3,400) who looks great hitting up in the order in the three spot. I like the power he provides and if KBO DFS players aren’t on the batting order change it could be sneaky. Using these guys as a three-man would probably be my preferred approach, it’s a lot to ask to get five hitters worth of quality in this spot with any reliability. Won-seok Lee ($8/$4,100) is always an option in the middle of this order as either the third man or a building block. Deploy the Lions with caution, I think I prefer both pitchers in this one.