KBO DFS: Spotlight Hitters DraftKings, FanDuel

Two days after the anniversary of people losing their minds for no reason when the 2012 MLB All-Star Game was declared a tie, the Dinos and Twins treated KBO DFS players to the first tied ballgame of the season. MLB fans may not be familiar with the KBO’s intricacies even to this point in the season. The league, and Japan’s NPB like it, has a 12-inning limit on games. If they aren’t decided after 12 the game is a tie. Not so painful. I would prefer this change in MLB to the ridiculous idea of starting a runner at second base in each extra half-inning.

It was a fun slate of KBO baseball overall. The tied game was a 12-run affair with several key knocks coming from popular bats, including home runs from Aaron Altherr and Roberto Ramos. The low-owned Twins proved to be a quality play for those that took the shot against Mike Wright. The Wiz beat the Lions 10-7 in a game featuring yet another Mel Rojas Jr. home run, and the Tigers put eight on the board to upset the Heroes, getting two homers from Dae-in Hwang.

It was a tough day on the pitching side with the popular arms who weren’t named Aaron Brooks failing to come through for KBO DFS players. Tonight’s board has some similar looking run totals and at lest one dominant ace going in Chang-mo Koo.

KBO DFS Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel Hitters

We’ve unfortunately got some very concerning looking weather on the radar again tonight. Depending on which site’s board you’re looking at we could have two to four games that are truly under threat of postponement, and all five have a chance to get wet. This is going to be a tightrope that will require being awake going into lock, which at least is moved up to 4:00 A.M. EST today. It will be best guesses as usual but join the crew in the Awesemo baseball Slack channel to keep up with anything breaking in that crucial last hour, it just might save your slate.

The bulk of this analysis comes directly from reviewing Awesemo’s KBO DFS projections and the top stacks tool. Check out the rest of our KBO content, Awesemo’s projections, rankings, and ownership on the site for all your KBO DFS needs.

As usual, I’m going to look game by game, calling out a hitter or two from each team, and giving some top stacking options as we go. Pricing and popularity will be considered, more so as KBO DFS trends begin to emerge over the coming weeks. The numbers included with Suggested Stack are the projected lineup positions I would target for stacking that team, but do not restrict yourself exclusively to those spots. For example, if it says Wyverns 3-6 it means 3,4,5,6 in the projected lineup. If it says 1-2-3-5 it means those guys. If it means a two-man it will say so.

With lock still hours away (4:00 A.M. EST), official lineups have not been released, so be sure to double-check status before you plug players into your lineup.

NC Dinos @ LG Twins – 9.5 run total (6.01/3.74) – Suggested Stack(s): Dinos 1-5

The Dinos sat Sung-bum Na last night and the top of the lineup suffered a bit from his absence, with Suk-min Park going just 1-6 in his stead. The production came from Aaron Altherr and Sung-wook Kim late in the lineup, limiting the Dinos’ value to KBO DFS success. The Twins, on the other hand, got productive nights from several of the early hitters, including a home run from Roberto Ramos and one from Ji-hwan Oh later in the linep.

The Dinos are heavy favorites tonight with the KBO’s best pitcher on the mound in Chang-mo Koo. Koo has been lights out but the Dinos are pulling an implied team total over six, meaning the bats are in a good spot for us here as well. The Twins’ starter is their first-round pick from the 2020 draft. He’s made 10 appearances so far this season, including one ugly five-inning start against the Heroes. This is a spot to attack with bats again. The Dinos rank second in stacks on both sites but their pricing helps suppress ownership, making them a very appealing building block. We should get Sung-bum Na ($18/$5,800) back here, but it wouldn’t be entirely shocking to see catcher Eui-ji Yang ($13/$5,800) get the night off. If that’s the case I would expect Jin-sung Kang ($15/$4,500) to move up the lineup once again, but possibly to fifth with Aaron Altherr ($15/$5,700) taking either the cleanup or third spot. In any order those are quality hitters and good options for KBO DFS lineups. Jin-hyuk No ($9/$4,400) remains cheap and is one of my favorite middle-infield targets on nights we’re stacking Dinos.

The Twins get Chang-mo Koo tonight and, unlike last night where I could see the angle against Mike Wright, it would be flat-out inadvisable to play them here. These are quality bats, but there are just better spots on the table. Koo has been mowing down the KBO all season and there isn’t much reason to expect him to stop here. Awesemo’s projections and the last-place stack ranking for the Twins support avoiding any major deployment of Twins here as well. If you do go that route just play the usually popular guys, no one else will. Straight to the heart of the order and Hyun-soo Kim ($15/$4,500), Hyung-jong Lee ($6/$3,400), Roberto Ramos ($17/$4,800), Eun-sung Chae ($13/$3,000), and Kang-nam Yoo ($10/$4,500) with you.

Doosan Bears @ Lotte Giants – 12.0 run total (6.51/5.75) – Suggested Stack(s): Bears 9-1-2-3-4

The Giants got just enough from their nine hitter and the heart of this order to squeak out a 5-4 win over the Bears. The Giants rode a string of base hits to success, while the Bears got most of their work done on a two-run homer by Jose Miguel Fernandez.

The Bears didn’t get where we wanted them last night, but they look strong again here in a game where the total has increased from last night’s 11.5. The implied team total over 6.5 is all we need to know about the Bears offense here. 37-year-old Won-sam Jang’s best years on the mound are well behind him. In fact, Jang hasn’t been relevant in the KBO since 2017 and hasn’t been good since at least 2014. This is another spot to target. The Bears rank first in the stack tool on both sites and the public doesn’t appear to be fully on them. It’s difficult to make the Bears and Dinos work together in a lineup under normal circumstances, given their high pricing and what have now become positional conflicts. But keep an eye on any changes that could open pathways to affordable constructions that feature correlated bats from both squads. Jae-il Oh ($15/$4,600) is both too cheap and too unpopular, he’s a great first step in any build. Jose Miguel Fernandez ($17/$6,200) is far from cheap but he’s basically mandatory in Bears builds but goes well under what his exposure should be. Kun-woo park ($14/$4,700) is going to be widely owned where people play this team, but he’s worth the exposure given his quality atop this lineup. Se-hyuk Park ($7/$4,200) at under 8% ownership is looking like a reasonable catcher play on DraftKings, I wouldn’t sweat getting to him on FanDuel for anything more than differentiating a few lineups though.

The Giants get the Bears’ 2016 first round pick, 22-year-old Young-ha Lee. Lee has disappointed so far this year, following a strong 2019 campaign. Lee has posted just four quality starts in 11 tries and his early inconsistency is beginning to give way to general futility. The Giants stand to gain here, and they rank in the top half of stacks tonight. The public appears to be getting to them in droves, however, making the play one you’ll have to get creative with. If we see that team ownership figure come down for any reason, I can see getting to more of this team. Hoon Jung ($9/$3,700) makes a quality option at second base on DraftKings with his low price and quality as a table-setter for the bats behind him here. The trio of Ah-seop Son ($13/$3,900), Jun-woo Jeon ($12/$4,000), and Dae-ho Lee ($10/$3,800) looks great in Awesemo’s projections as usual, but only Lee will be owned under 15% on DraftKings, and they’re all over 20% on FanDuel. Pivoting a spot to a hitter like Dong-hee Han ($10/$2,500) makes sense again if he’s hitting in the middle of the lineup. Byung-hun Min ($9/$3,000) was productive from the ninth spot and makes a quality wrap-around once again.

SK Wyverns @ Hanwha Eagles – 8.5 run total (4.65/4.04) – Suggested Stack(s): Wyverns 2-3-4-5-7

This matchup went about to expectation last night, with home runs from Jamie Romak and Tae-in Chae right on cue in a 5-3 Wyverns victory. The only disappointing thing from the Wyverns side was the limited game from starting pitcher Jong-hoon Park, who only managed to strike out two lowly Eagles while giving up two runs in a 5.1 inning performance.

Tonght’s game looks mostly the same, only the Eagles are the team with the KBO-quality strikeout pitcher on the mound. Luckily for the Wyverns that pitcher doubles as the wild and unpredictable Shi-hwan Jang in his spare time, so there could be some sneaky opportunities for this team. The trio of Jeong Choi ($14/$5,300), Jamie Romak ($13/$4,400), and Tae-in Chae ($5/$2,500) is once again my favorite entry point to Wyverns stacks if you’re looking their way. It seems like they’ll be a bit popular for a team that rank in the bottom half of stacks though, so maybe just a three-man where others are building full stacks would be the best approach. If you go to the full-build I would make certain to get to some less popular guys in the other two spots. Kang-min Kim ($7/$3,100) is useful in this regard, as is Jun-hyeok Oh ($5/$2,400) if he’s hitting second.

The Eagles have the night’s second lowest implied total and don’t look great in Awesemo’s projections or in the stack tool. I can’t really come up with a good reason to play many Eagles lineups at all tonight. If you’re in some sort of reverse-Speed situation where your stack’s projected total can’t go over 55 or your lineup will explode, your bats are Tae-kyun Kim ($7/$3,700), Ju-suk Ha ($9/$4,400), and Yong-kyu Lee ($8/$3,800) with any two other guys you’d like to attach to it.

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Samsung Lions @ KT Wiz – 10.5 run total (5.55/5.18) – Suggested Stack(s): Wiz 2-3-4

These teams played an interesting back and forth game that ended in a 10-7 Wiz victory that had quality KBO DFS performances from both lineups. The Lions did most of their damage with a series of base hits but did pick up a home run from Sung-gon Lee, while the Wiz had a home run from the scorching Mel Rojas Jr. and a four-RBI night from Han-joon Yoo. Lighting up a popular pitcher has a way of getting people’s attention, it will be interesting to see how the Wiz ownership responds tonight.

The Lions rank third in the stack tool on both sites tonight, but they’re no one’s secret anymore, and look a bit too popular for my liking on both sites. There’s quality here and the spot is as strong as it was yesterday, but the more people get to an up and down team like this the less I like it. I am getting a good home run mark for Tyler Saladino ($13/$4,600) and he looks strong in Awesemo’s projections, but he’s by far the most popular bat on this team, pushing around the 30% range on both sites. The play might be to duck his ownership and get to less popular bats that could provide good opportunity. At the least you’ll want to build-in some differentiation. Hak-ju Lee ($7/$4,700) and Hae-min Park ($7/$3,000) are both quality building blocks with very low popularity, making them ideal here. Sung-gon Lee ($5/$2,900) has been productive in his time in the starting lineup and is in the mid-teens in ownership, rendering him playable but not overwhelmingly appealing.

The Wiz rank in the bottom half of the stack tool and right now the ownership on DraftKings is trending for about half what their probability of success looks like. FanDuel ownership looks a bit tighter, but this is still a playable lineup in a limited sense. The issue with the Wiz tonight is facing David Buchanan who has been excellent in all but one of his last eight starts. The Wiz bats will all be under five percent ownership on DraftKings, meaning you can play the Mel Rojas Jr. ($17/$6,300), Jae-gyun Hwang ($11/$6,100), Baek-ho Kang ($16/$5,500) core of this stack in droves if you can make prices work. The numbers make it a challenge to use the Wiz with the top stack options on the night, so if you play this you’ll likely need to nail another value stack to go with them, making it a difficult needle to thread in a tough spot against a good pitcher. Dicey at best.

Kiwoom Heroes @ Kia Tigers – 9.5 run total (5.04/4.66) – Suggested Stack(s): Heroes 2-4

Last night’s contest featured a home run from Heroes’ slugger Byung-ho Park as well as Dae-in Hwang’s two homer night, but somehow an 8-3 Tigers victory seems a bit uneventful otherwise. Low-owned Tigers catcher Yong-hwan Baek provided a late-lineup home run and RBIs for anyone who happened to chance upon him at the bottom of the Tigers’ batting order, but it wasn’t a great one for KBO DFS players.

Tonight’s game might be more of the same, with a relatively low game total. The Heroes are favored but their implied total barely scrapes over the 5-run mark here. The matchup against starter Ki-young Im isn’t a great one, Im has pitched fairly well while not dazzling so far in 2020, but projections have the Heroes landing fourth in the top stack tool. The bats to get to are mostly the top end of the lineup. Byung-ho Park ($14/$4,700) is someone you can usually feel comfortable just clicking when you start these Heroes builds. Keon-chang Seo ($11/$4,600) and Jung-hoo Lee ($14/$4,800) are still at reasonable prices atop this lineup, and Dong-won Park ($9/$5,300) can always help fill out your positional requirements. Only Byung-ho will be owned with any real significance, although the team has basic popularity tonight.

Hyun-hee Han has been better in other parts of his KBO career than what he’s shown so far in 2020. This is a pitcher with apparent quality and he’s suppressing the Tigers run total tonight. Where I liked these guys a little bit last night, I think we can feel safe largely avoiding the Tigers tonight. They rank near the bottom of the stack tool and there’s no real edge to speak of. Without the public going to them in huge numbers we don’t have to worry as much about popularity on the obvious three-man stack of Tucker, Choi, and Na ($38/$13,700 total) so you can just run that, or add Min-sang Yoo ($7/$3,000) and either Chang-jin Lee ($5/$2,900) or Joo-hwan Na ($5/$2,200) in a pretty basic straight-line stack. The appeal on Chan-ho Park ($9/$3,400) essentially evaporates for me with him hitting seventh, and there’s no real reason to look to a wrap-around play if he hits ninth, basically taking the bottom of this order off the board for me.