Saturday night brings another “early” lock time or KBO DFS players with all 5 games kicking off at 1am. We’ll go through the pitching slate a little earlier today, Spotlight Hitters will be coming out a bit later in the day.
Last night’s slate was all about NC starter Drew Rucinski, who posted a dominant performance, doubling up the next closest scores on both sites. Fellow imports Aaron Brooks and Eric Jokisch also had strong starts on the night, making it tough to win without paying up for pitching.
Tonight’s slate has 4 games with run totals over 10, including the chalky Bears and Heroes offenses in 12 and 11 run games respectively. These big run totals could mean a bumpy night for a lot of starters, so finding the right pitchers to unlock the top of GPP leader-boards will be critical here.
The bulk of this analysis comes directly from reviewing Awesemo’s KBO DFS projections for both DraftKings and FanDuel. Check out the rest of our KBO content, Awesemo’s projections, rankings, and ownership on the site for all your KBO DFS needs.
In the interest of tightening things up a bit, I’m going to attempt to limit detail on the non-options, and just focus on the sharp plays here.
We’ll take a quick look game by game trying to find the most likely options for that exceptional game, and hopefully identify a lower-owned option within the pool of capable starters.
KBO DFS Picks: Pitching Breakdown for DraftKings + FanDuel
Hanwha Eagles @ NC Dinos – 9.0 run total (3.77/5.45) – Shi-hwan Jang ($23/$6.8k) vs Mike Wright ($27/$8.9k)
The Eagles’ starter Shi-hwan “Born to be Wild” Jang (the superior “Wild Thing” was taken by Ricky Vaughn years ago) is our favorite wild pitch specialist and an absolute non-factor on the pitching side. Do not roster.
Mike Wright starting against a weak Eagles lineup is interesting here in the same way teammate Drew Rucinski was appealing last night. Wright is 3 for 3 in making effective starts so far in the KBO, allowing only 3 runs on 13 hits and striking out a batter per inning over his first 16. Wright’s only issue so far has been giving up too many walks, with 8 on the young season. Even when it doesn’t cost him runs, this is a problem that compounds for KBO DFS owners as it limits Wright’s ability to pitch deep into games, as exemplified by the 115 pitches he needed to get through 5 innings against Doosan last time out. Even with this in mind, Wright is one of the top options for KBO DFS owners tonight, he is a worthwhile pay-up option as Awesemo’s highest projected starter on both sites.
Kia Tigers @ SK Wyverns – 10 run total (5.44/4.77) – Min-woo Lee ($24/$7.0k) vs. Ricardo Pinto ($20/$7.6k)
These are two pitchers I wouldn’t mind targeting with some bats tonight. Both allow too much contact, give up too many walks, and strike out too few hitters to be relevant for us tonight. The only appeal here would be Pinto’s price on FanDuel, but I just don’t see him delivering. Full fade (for me), get to hitters.
Update: Awesemo’s projections do like Min-woo Lee.
KT Wiz @ LG Twins – 10 run total (5.04/5.18) – William Cuevas ($25/$7.8k) vs. Chan-gyu Lim ($25/$7.2k)
Two playable options in this one, in what odds-makers like to be one of the closer contests of the night. People just looking at box scores and flawed stats like ERA might overlook William Cuevas tonight. He’s been dinged twice in three early starts but is striking out nearly a batter-per-inning and walking very few. He comes into tonight with a FIP a full run lower than his ugly ERA.
Chan-gyu Lim is a capable righty starter who is off to a good start in 2020 after a mostly effective career to date. What KBO DFS owners will like is that he can cover a few earned run mistakes with strikeouts more than other native Korean pitchers. Lim makes an appealing option at a bit of a discount on DraftKings here tonight, despite the match-up against the powerful Wiz offense.
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Doosan Bears @ Samsung Lions – 12 run total (7.22/5.08) – Young-ha Lee ($24/$8.3k) vs. David Buchanan ($23/$7.4k)
Yikes that’s a big total. With most of the implied runs landing on the Doosan side of things we have to like Young-ha Lee’s odds to pick up the win bonus tonight. The skinny 6’4” 200lbs 22-year-old Lee has made 3 starts in 2020 to mixed results that appear in-line with his career to date. Lee’s issue is that he doesn’t strike anyone out and issues too many free passes, with awful K:BB ratios the last two seasons, while striking out just a shade over 0.5 batters-per-inning. Still, the price on FanDuel and the match-up here at least merit consideration. It’s easier to ignore Lee on DraftKings where he is expensive, but keep an eye on ownership projections, he could be sneaky in that “he’s not a great pitcher, but…” way.
David Buchanan should call in sick today, it’s not going to go well.
Kiwoom Heroes @ Lotte Giants – 11 run total (6.73/4.55) – Won-tae Choi ($23/$9.5k) vs. Jun-won Seo ($21/$6.2k)
The Heroes are getting the bulk of the implied runs in this one and Won-tae Choi is in great position to pick up the win bonus and can rack up some peripheral points for KBO DFS owners tonight as well, with his better than KBO average ability to whiff hitters. He’s not cheap on DraftKings, but hopefully the price will suppress ownership somewhat. On FanDuel he is far more affordable and might be popular. Keep an eye on ownership projections closer to lock.
Jun-won Seo should spend the day at home too. Maybe he can play some MLB the Show online with Buchanan instead of pitching in this one. Nothing to see or play here.
Top Starter: Mike Wright (NC)
Under the Radar: William Cuevas (KT)
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