Week 1 of the NFL DFS schedule is sneaking up on us. To get you prepped for the coming season on DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo and FantasyDraft, Awesemo will be releasing a series of NFL DFS Strategy articles and videos over the coming weeks detailing his process and what he does that makes him the best DFS player in the world.
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Alex “Awesemo” Baker and the Bachelor’s Chris Randone sit down to talk about beginning strategies for NFL DFS stacking.
What’s the biggest mistake players make in NFL DFS that’s different from other sports?
In NFL people rely on recency bias too much instead of digging deeper into the underlying metrics. Since there are so few games it can be convenient to look at the box scores but understanding the context of each player’s situation is critical.
What’s the one piece of advice you would give new subscribers to the site?
It’s easier to emulate what great DFS players do than to create your own strategy from scratch. When I started, I looked a lot at what guys like SaahilSud did to see what the best strategies were.
*We have a few articles up on the site, breaking down what some of the pros do! Here’s one on ChipotleAddict’s approach to NFL DFS Showdown slate.
Last I found your premium Stacks vs. Projected Ownership article helpful in determining how to approach my stacking ownership. How do you use that information?
Figuring out the right stack is all a risk vs. reward situation. The best stacks are usually the highest owned and to determine whether they are a good play or not is all about their chances of getting you success vs. their ownership.
Do you worry about the total ownership of each lineup?
I think the best lineups incorporate high-owned players and low-owned sleepers. If I’m going with several chalk players then I want some ways my lineup is different from most others, whether it’s low owned players or maybe players who are difficult to pair together.
In the past, we’ve seen full game stacks win massive tournaments. How often do you employ a full game stack?
I think full game stacks are always an advantage compared to smaller stacks if you’re trying to win a tournament (all things being equal). The more restrictive your lineup construction is (five players from one game or more) the harder it is to build a lineup though, so you have to balance the correlation with the ownership and projection as well.
When stacking, what’s your most preferred structure? QB-1WR? QB-2WR? Or something else?
My favorite lineup type is pairing two receivers with my quarterback, and at least one player from the opposing team. The best stacks are usually in competitive games so there will be a lot of fantasy scoring on both sides.
You speak often about “bringing back” your stacks with a player on another team. Do you always do this? Or is it game dependant?
I think it’s always a good idea to do a game stack. When I don’t have one it’s more of an exception to the rule than my plan.
Lineup study shows that Running Backs in the FLEX spot is the most successful way to build a tournament winning lineup. Do you agree with this? Is it because RBs are easier to project, or offer better value when an injury pops up? Do you have a rule or is it just trust the projections?
I don’t have a rule on who should be in the FLEX and I think there are arguments for each position. Double tight end is nice because you have two players that aren’t usually paired in other lineups. Wide receivers have more variance than running backs, but they are usually the highest projected players on the slate.
How do you target defences?
Usually whatever fits in my lineup. There is a ton of variance in defensive touchdowns so I don’t have a strong preference to what defense I play, but I prefer ones that are facing QB’s that throw a lot of picks.
We’ve also got a Q&A for how to use Fantasy Cruncher (coming out shortly), with more videos coming out soon!