MLB’s 2021 regular season has arrived and the return of the Awesemo.com Spotlight Pitchers article is here to help guide your slate of pitching decisions for both DraftKings and FanDuel. Each day will feature breakdowns of starting pitchers using Awesemo’s MLB Top Pitchers Tool by identifying some of the best daily fantasy baseball starting pitching plays on each slate based on Awesemo’s top value and top scoring projections for the slate, relative to their projected ownership.
[JOINMLB+]
Top Daily Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitchers | April 3
Lance Lynn: White Sox at Angels — DraftKings $9,200, FanDuel $9,800
The Chicago White Sox continue the third leg in a four-game series to open the 2021 season and veteran right-handed pitcher Lance Lynn has found himself a new place to call home once again. Coming off a remarkable season with the Texas Rangers, Lynn had a 25.9% K-rate, 9.54 K/9, 3.32 ERA and .204 AVG. Also to complement his 2020 season, Lynn walked 7.8% of batters he faced and preserved a .242 BABIP and 1.06 WHIP. Facing a right-handed heavy Angels roster, Lynn is in line for a potentially dominant night on the mound, according to Awesemo’s premium projections and tools.
Keeping his high-salary point for Saturday in mind, Lynn doesn’t project as a top value on FanDuel at just 7.8%. Yet according to Awesemo’s Top Pitchers Tool, Lynn maintains moderate value on DraftKings with a 23.3% Top-2 Value projection and 31.6% projected chance of being a Top-2 Pitcher on the slate. With a 14.8% chance of being the top pitching option on FanDuel, Lynn projects as the third-best projected Top Pitcher on both sites. With just 16% ownership forecast on DraftKings by Awesemo’s Ownership Projection model, Lynn looks to be slightly underrepresented on both sites as he’s only slated for 4.3% ownership on FanDuel as well. Correlating with the Top Pitcher ranks are Awesemo’s Point Projections, where Lynn is projected 16.7 DraftKings Fantasy Points and 30.2 FanDuel Fantasy Points.
Facing an Anaheim Angels lineup potentially rolling out two left-handed hitters and one switch-hitter, Lynn is presented an intriguing matchup despite the inclusion of prolific talents such as Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon. Last season as proof, Lynn has handled himself against both-handed hitters, as he struck-out 9.50 righties and 9.57 lefties per nine innings. Including a sturdy 1.22 WHIP and .264 BABIP against righties and an impressive 0.90 WHIP and .219 BABIP against opposing lefties, Lynn has demonstrated his ability to extinguish batters regardless of handedness. Despite their 110 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers from 2020 till present, the Angels’ first two games this season have started off cold with a 34.7% K-rate and 40 wRC+ against opposing righties in 34 plate appearances. At moderate-to-low projected ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel while projecting for a worthy performance this evening, Lynn is a fine spend-up pivot to roster on MLB’s first Saturday of the season.
Awesemo’s FanDuel Grades: Points B, Value E
Awesemo’s DraftKings Grades: Points B, Value C
[STARTING9]
Corbin Burnes: Brewers vs. Twins — DraftKings $8,200, FanDuel $9,200
Following a forgettable 2019 season for the Bakersfield native, Corbin Burnes produced a phenomenal third year in Milwaukee. Shutting down batters for an outstanding 36.7% K-rate and 13.27 K/9, Burnes notched a 2.11 ERA and .174 AVG. Although he walked 10% of batters faced, he managed a 3.62 BB/9 and 26.67% K-BB% with an incredible 0.30 HR/9. Welcoming the Minnesota Twins to American Family Field for the second of their three-game series, the strikeouts should come early and often for the 26-year-old right-handed talent.
Looking over to Awesemo’s Top Pitchers Tool, we see Burnes to be a top candidate to be the best pitcher on Saturday. While Burnes is projected to be the highest-owned pitcher on both sites, the compound complements of price point and point projection make for considerable value on Saturday’s short main slate. Projected as the top value pitcher on DraftKings at 51.3%, Burnes remains a top-3 projected value option at 14.3% on FanDuel. Yet he takes the cake when it comes to top pitcher potential for the slate, as Burnes marks a 51.2% chance at a Top-2 Pitcher option on DraftKings and 21% Top Pitcher representation on FanDuel, the top projected option on both sites. With Awesemo fantasy point projections of 22.39 DraftKings and 37.61 FanDuel, Burnes is the highest projected starting pitcher and has one of the best opportunities to exceed value at his price.
Taking on a Twins team that is proven to be the textbook example of boom-or-bust, Burnes is provided a fantastic matchup with regards to his standout strikeout capabilities. Last season, the Twins struck out at a 25.5% clip against right-handed pitchers, and with much of the same roster intact, the susceptibility of sitting down batters appears high for Burnes on his home field. Rocking a 41.2% strikeout rate at home last season, Burnes could make light work of the Minnesota opposition with ease. Burnes’ 33.3% infield fly ball rate against right-handed hitters last season also stands as a vote of confidence, while Minnesota’s IFFB rate of 11% versus right-handed pitchers adds to the argument. He’s slightly too cheap and projected to be the top pitcher on both sites for Saturday’s main slate, and Burnes makes an excellent first option on all sites.
Awesemo’s FanDuel Grades: Points A, Value A
Awesemo’s DraftKings Grades: Points A, Value A
Latest MLB DFS Content
- Today’s Top MLB DFS Pitcher Pivots: Garrett Crochet and More (April 24)
- MLB DFS Punt Plays For DraftKings and FanDuel (April 24)
- MLB DFS Contrarian Stacks Today: Top Values! (April 24)
- MLB DFS Picks, Spotlight Pitchers & Top Stacks: SP1s Joe Ryan and Bronx Bats (April 24)
- MLB DFS: Stokastic’s Tom Kennedy With TWO DraftKings MLB Wins in One Night | How the Sims Helped Him Out
- Stokastic DFS on Youtube
Walker Buehler: Dodgers at Rockies — DraftKings $9,300, FanDuel $8,000
The Dodgers and Rockies have split their season-opening series at one game apiece, and tonight, stud Walker Buehler looks to bag a series edge for the Los Angeles. Posting another fantastic resume in his championship year, last season Buehler slung for 10.31 K/9 and 28.6% K-rate, while walking just 7.5% of batters with a 21.1% K-BB rate. Touting an outstanding 0.95 WHIP, Buehler mitigated damage while achieving a .198 BABIP, .178 AVG, and 1.72 HR/9. Facing this Colorado team who smashed out four home runs in the seventh inning last night, the assignment is always challenging at Coors Field but not anything Buehler can’t withstand.
Once again, utilizing Awesemo’s Top Pitchers Tool, we see that Buehler is projected among the better projected options across Saturday’s starting pitchers and a particularly standout value on FanDuel. Buehler cements himself as the second-most projected value pitcher at 14.5% on FanDuel, while on DraftKings his elevated asking price and point projection don’t make for as much projected value but still with a 22.5% Top-2 Value intact. At 26.6% projected ownership on DraftKings and 17.9% on FanDuel, Buehler forecasts to be the second-most owned pitcher on both sites. With a solid point projection from Awesemo, Buehler’s 16.55 DraftKings and 28.75 FanDuel points are the top two point projections among starting pitchers on both daily fantasy baseball sites.
Squaring off with the Rockies in their home at elevation, Colorado looks to roll out three lefties and six right-handed hitters, to which Buehler has the ability to dismiss from the mound every bit as well as Trevor Bauer did in his first start in Dodger Blue yesterday (where he struck-out 10). Striking out left-handed bats at 31.6% and right-handers at 25% last season, Buehler has proven en route to a championship that he can hang with batters of all talent calibers. With a 74 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers last season, the Rockies also struck out against them at a 24.2% rate as well (13th in baseball). Albeit rough sledding in Coors Field given the propensity for home runs, Buehler’s consistent strikeout arsenal has more than enough firepower to shut down the Rockies on Saturday evening.
Awesemo’s FanDuel Grades: Points C, Value C
Awesemo’s DraftKings Grades: Points B, Value D
Follow us on all of our social channels! Check out our Twitter, Facebook, Instagram and YouTube for more great Awesemo content.
Looking for more daily fantasy baseball picks content? We have loads of daily fantasy baseball articles, data, DraftKings and FanDuel cheat sheets and more on the Awesemo MLB home page. Just click HERE.
