With MLB Opening Day action in full effect as of 1:05 p.m. EDT, MLB 2021’s regular season has arrived and the return of the Awesemo.com Spotlight Pitchers article is here to help guide your slate of pitching decisions for both DraftKings and FanDuel. Each day will feature breakdowns of starting pitchers using Awesemo’s MLB Top Pitchers Tool by identifying some of the best daily fantasy baseball starting pitching plays on each slate based on Awesemo’s top value and top scoring projections for the slate, relative to their projected ownership.
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Top Daily Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitchers
Tyler Glasnow – Rays at Marlins – DraftKings $8,800, FanDuel $10,000
Tyler Glasnow is coming off a phenomenal season in 2020, albeit a shorter one given the pandemic year. He hit the mark in a number of categories, including a 38.2% strikeout rate (third best in 2020), 1.13 WHIP, .199 average and the best K/9 of his five-year career at 14.28. Taking on the right-handed-heavy Marlins to start off the season makes for an excellent matchup for Glasnow while being priced down noticeably on DraftKings ($8,800).
Although he has proven to fare better against left-handed hitters (1.07 WHIP, 38.8 K%, 0.96 HR/9), Glasnow has performed admirably against righties as well, maintaining a 37.9% strikeout rate, 1.19 WHIP and a slightly better K/9 at 14.42 (14.14 K/9 vs. LHB). Taking a look at Awesemo’s MLB Top Pitchers Tool, Glasnow has a projected 11% chance of being the top pitcher on FanDuel and a 37.1% chance of being a top-two pitcher on DraftKings. While he is sure to be a chalk play considering Awesemo’s projected ownership of 38.1% on DraftKings (most) and 14.2% on FanDuel (third most), Glasnow is carrying the torch of a top-value pitcher as well with a 25.3% projection of being a top-two pitcher on DraftKings (highest projected value).
Facing a Marlins batting order starting seven righties (including pitcher Sandy Alcantara), Glasnow’s 10.5% walk rate and 2.45 HR/9 leave plenty of room for concern. However, Miami presents a returning cast of all their starting hitters besides Adam Duvall, representing a 25.1% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers (in the bottom third of teams in 2020) as well as an 89 wRC+ (24th in 2020). Despite the moderate margin of error against fellow righties, Glasnow proves to be one of the top pitchers available on MLB’s Opening Day main slate.
Awesemo’s FanDuel Grades: Points A, Value A
Awesemo’s DraftKings Grades: Points A, Value A
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Yu Darvish – Padres vs. Diamondbacks – DraftKings $10,400, FanDuel $10,700
The new-look Padres have added plenty of firepower to their pitching rotation, bringing in Blake Snell and Yu Darvish during the offseason. Welcoming the Diamondbacks to Petco Park, Darvish and the Padres face a majority returning cast of Madison Bumgarner and company, who present an intriguing matchup for Darvish. Besides his low value projection, considering the spend-up asking price in tandem with significant field ownership projected, Darvish remains a top option for today’s MLB Opening Day slate.
Coming off a league-leading eight-win season in a condensed schedule, Darvish posted an outstanding 31.3% strikeout rate, 4.7% walk rate and an 0.96 WHIP. He also stands an impressive candidate at starting pitcher today by Awesemo’s fantasy point projections. Projected for 22.12 DraftKings points and 37.59 FanDuel points, Darvish is the sixth-highest projected starting pitcher on the day and has an excellent shot at being the top pitcher on the slate.
Looking back at the Awesemo MLB Top Pitchers Tool, Darvish has a stellar 18.3% chance of being a top-two pitcher on DraftKings (third best) and a 6.2% projected top pitcher on FanDuel (fifth). The contrast in top value projections at just 4.2% on DraftKings and 1.8% on FanDuel is reflected through Darvish’s costly price tag also conflicted by his 20.1% ownership on DraftKings as the fourth-most owned pitcher according to Awesemo’s Ownership Projections. Yet he’s projected for just 4.7% ownership on FanDuel where only one pitcher is in play per roster (as opposed to two on DraftKings), and Darvish contends as a top-five option on the extended slate beginning at 1 p.m. EDT (and 2:15 p.m. EDT for DraftKings).
Starting their season against a Diamondbacks roster projected to roll out three lefties and two switch-hitters, Darvish draws one of the better projected matchups on paper. The Diamondback had a 92 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers in 2020 (21st) and hit for just an 11.3% HR/FB rate against righty pitchers (28th). Going hand in hand, Darvish tossed for a 30.8% fly ball rate, 8.8% infield fly ball rate and just an 8.8% HR/FB rate in 2020. Despite having only a 20.4% strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers last year (third best), the Diamondbacks’ 6.4% aggregate ownership share by way of the Top Stacks Tool remains among the top seven in field ownership on DraftKings. Darvish stands in a great position facing a D-backs roster with 4.59 runs scored per game and -76 run differential projections for the season (courtesy FanGraphs).
Awesemo’s FanDuel Grades: Points A, Value A
Awesemo’s DraftKings Grades: Points A, Value A
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Chad Kuhl – Pirates at Cubs – DraftKings $5,200, FanDuel $6,300
In striving to find the top pitching selections for every daily fantasy baseball slate, it is also necessary to salvage value in order to afford the nicer things elsewhere (i.e. batters). On Opening Day that quest begins with Pirates starting pitcher Chad Kuhl. Coming in as the visiting pitcher against the rival Cubs at Wrigley Field, it’s due to be a frigid one in Chicago with temperatures hovering around freezing. The baseballs will be heavy, and on the massive Opening Day slate, Kuhl projects to be a top value option by the numbers.
Coming off a 5-5 season in 2020, Kuhl is the top projected value option on FanDuel at 10.10% today as well as a top-three value option at 21.5% value on DraftKings. Considering his projected ownership of less than 1% on both DraftKings and FanDuel, Kuhl’s projections contrast to staggeringly low ownership and therefore warrant his top value projection. Looking at Awesemo’s fantasy point projections, Kuhl is projected for 13.85 DraftKings points and a surprisingly high 25.33 FanDuel points while remaining one of the cheapest starting pitchers on the slate.
Although the Cubs are by no means a roster to take lightly, their 25.8% strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers was the fifth highest in the Majors, while they had just a 98 wRC+ against opposing righties on the mound (18th in 2020). With the Cubs projected to roll out three lefties and one switch-hitter, Kuhl rocked a 23.6% strikeout rate against opposite-handed batters in 2020 alongside a .196 average against them. You can’t get everything you want when it comes to frugality, as Kuhl’s 4.27 ERA and 1.36 WHIP are nothing to be necessarily celebrating. But provided the give and take between ownership and point projections against a far-from-perfect Cubs team, Kuhl makes for an excellent cost cutter when plugging in value.
Awesemo’s FanDuel Grades: Points C, Value A
Awesemo’s DraftKings Grades: Points A, Value A
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