Daily Fantasy Baseball Top Starting Pitchers on DraftKings & FanDuel

MLB’s 2021 regular season has arrived and the return of the Awesemo.com Spotlight Pitchers article is here to help guide your slate of pitching decisions for both DraftKings and FanDuel. Each day will feature breakdowns of starting pitchers using Awesemo’s MLB Top Pitchers Tool by identifying some of the best daily fantasy baseball starting pitching plays on each slate based on Awesemo’s top value and top scoring projections for the slate, relative to their projected ownership.

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Top Daily Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitchers | April 6

Max Scherzer: WAS vs. ATL — DraftKings $9,200, FanDuel $10,500 (Early Slate)

Max Scherzer heads to the mound for the first time in 2021 to take on the Braves. Aiming to replicate more of his 2019 Championship form, Scherzer’s performance through 12 games in the pandemic year was nothing to hang his head over in particular. With a 12.30 K/9 and 31.2% strikeout rate, Scherzer was able to stitch together a solid year by way of strikeouts, while his 1.38 WHIP and .355 BABIP left room for improvement. Against this Atlanta roster who’s seen better starts to their previous seasons (particularly against righties who are decimating them through 91 plate appearances), Scherzer stands in a great position to start his season with a win.

According to the early slate forecast by Awesemo’s Ownership Projections, Scherzer is due for a majority share of the ownership on both sites, with 83.1% on DraftKings and 41.8% on FanDuel. With a 24.11 DraftKings projection by Awesemo’s premium Point Projection system (and 40.41 FanDuel), Scherzer is projected as the top scorer on both DraftKings and FanDuel for the early slate beginning at 4:05 p.m. ET. Given his sky-high point projection and not-unreasonable price, Awesemo’s projected value rating of 2.62 on DraftKings and 3.85 on FanDuel make Scherzer easily the top pitching option on the early slate.

Facing this Braves team makes for a fantastic matchup for Scherzer, as Atlanta has started their season getting cooked by right-handed pitching. Earning just an 8 wRC+ against righties through 91 plate appearances this season (a very small sample size), the Braves have struck out a whopping 33% of the time and are hitting a lowly .103 ISO. Due to face an early projection of only one switch-hitter and two lefty batters, Scherzer’s matchup on paper gets sweeter, as he struck out right-handed batters an outstanding 36.1% last season, with a 1.08 WHIP and .205 average against. Despite a concerning 14.7% HR/FB rate against right-handed hitters, Scherzer’s matchup is too good to ignore on the short slate for both sites (with the much better early slate coming by way of FanDuel).

Awesemo’s FanDuel Grades: Points A, Value B

Awesemo’s DraftKings Grades: Points A, Value A

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Lucas Giolito: CWS at SEA — DraftKings $9,300, FanDuel $9,600

Lucas Giolito blowtorched the competition last year with a fantastic 33.7% strikeout rate and 12.07 K/9. Slinging for an impressive 1.04 WHIP and .182 average against, Giolito’s ability to stave off damage beyond his strikeout prowess was evidenced in a .255 BABIP, .315 FIP and .335 xFIP. Taking on the Mariners for the second game of their road stint in Seattle, the matchup is a savory one.

Awesemo Top Pitchers Tool projects considerably high ownership from the field. As the top projected pitcher in regards to ownership, Giolito represents a 57.5% share on DraftKings and a 41.6% share on FanDuel. However, Giolito is also projected to be the top pitcher on both sites, with a 25.77 point projection on DraftKings and 42.71 FanDuel Fantasy Points, further aiding his top overall pitcher projection on both sites as 38.7% chance of being a top-two pitcher on DraftKings and a 14.4% chance on FanDuel.

Facing a Mariners team who just got shutout last night against teammate Carlos Rodon, Giolito is due to face an early projection of four left-handed hitters, which doesn’t matter all that much considering his mutually impressive splits. Striking out 34.7% of lefties and 32.2% of right-handed hitters, Giolito also posted an 0.96 WHIP against righty bats and a 1.10 against left-handed opposition. With the Mariners currently striking out 25.7% of the time against right-handed pitchers in 105 plate appearances this season, the Mariners are right in line with their production against them this season, with a 99 wRC+ and a 24% strikeout rate in 2020 against righty pitchers. His moderate performance to open the season (21.6 DraftKings points, eight strikeouts, two hits, two earned runs) was nothing compared to his ceiling potential, and Giolito has every reason to be rostered against the Mariners this evening.

Awesemo’s FanDuel Grades: Points A, Value A

Awesemo’s DraftKings Grades: Points A, Value A

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Clayton Kershaw: CWS at SEA — DraftKings $9,500, FanDuel $9,000

Clayton Kershaw returns to the mound for his second start, this one in Oakland. Posting a dud performance in Coors Field to open the season (0.15 DraftKings points on 10 hits, five earned runs in 5.2 innings pitched), Kershaw looks to reignite his 2020 level of production. Kershaw’s 9.57 K/9, 28.1% strikeout rate and 0.84 WHIP last season does plenty to ease some worry, and facing an Athletics team who struck out against left-handed pitchers their fair share last season is ideal for Kershaw to rebound.

According to the Awesemo Top Pitchers Tool, he is projected for the third-most ownership on both sites, with 30% on DraftKings and 17% on FanDuel. With a 19.14-point projection on DraftKings and a 33.2-point projection on FanDuel, Kershaw projects to be the fourth-highest-scoring pitcher on both sites as well. Alongside an 18.2% top-two pitcher projection on DraftKings and an 8.1% chance on FanDuel, Kershaw is also fourth in line projecting as top pitcher on either site. However, his higher asking price make Kershaw’s value take a hit, at 8.3% top value on DraftKings and just 2.9% on FanDuel.

Squaring off against six right-handed hitters and one switch-hitter, Kershaw will have to bring his championship-echelon stuff to the mound if he’s going to even out his record on Tuesday. Last season, however, Oakland struck out 24.2% of the time against lefty pitchers (eighth most) and posted a .152 ISO and .267 BABIP while earning a 93 wRC+ against the split. Priced just a tad high on both sites, Kershaw’s ability to exceed value is intact against this Athletics roster that has proven as recently as last season to have their share of struggles against lefty pitchers.

Awesemo’s FanDuel Grades: Points A, Value C

Awesemo’s DraftKings Grades: Points A, Value C

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Author

Chris Giordani

Once a man of 12-team teaser parlays and an abundance of season-long fantasy leagues, Chris "TopherSquints" Giordani gradually honed his fascination for sports and plus-money wagers toward Daily Fantasy Sports. A homegrown Awesemo student from the early stages of the site's inception, he became infatuated with the contrarian DFS mindset and eventually combined his passion for writing with Daily Fantasy at the Sports Gambling Podcast's website blog. Currently, Chris Giordani resides in Orange County, California, enjoys binging on stand-up comedy, and long strolls through the DraftKings lobby.