Blake Snell ($12,400 DK/$10,700 FD)
Snell looks phenomenal as of late, posting at least 8 Ks in each of his last 3 starts — once against the Royals, which is a very soft matchup — but those other 2 starts were against Boston and Cleveland, which shows us that Snell is back and healthy. He has a great chance to make quick work of the Orioles, who are striking out almost 25% of the time against lefties since August 1. On a slate filled with aces, Snell is my #1 pitcher on the slate despite his expensive price on DraftKings, as he’s got the best combination of floor and upside of anyone.
Chris Archer ($7,300 DK/$7,400 FD)
I’ve been lower than most on Archer this season as he’s someone who constantly goes overowned in subpar spots, but I’m more than willing to use him on DK tonight. At $7,300, he provides some K upside as well as a good floor against the Marlins who very clearly lack power outside of JT Realmuto. Archer will see 6-7 righties including the pitcher spot, so a 26% K-rate against them already makes this matchup look tasty. Throw in the fact that the Marlins have a minuscule 3.1 run total and you’ve got yourself a nice GPP play with 25-point upside on DraftKings.
Felix Pena ($6,300 DK/$6,800 FD)
Pena continues to go underpriced on DraftKings, and he won’t be much of a secret because of that price, but he’s been fantastic as of late and has a great matchup tonight against the White Sox. Since the start of August, the White Sox are striking out over 27% against righties, the highest rate on the year, and Pena has hit his stride in his last 4 starts, shutting down Houston twice and missing a ton of bats against Arizona and San Diego. We’d like to see a lot of righties in the White Sox lineup, but there should be 4 at a minimum, and there is certainly some swing-and-miss in the lefties like Palka and Moncada.
Hitters & Stacks
Dodgers (vs. Jon Gray)
The Dodgers have disappointed a handful of times lately and it won’t be an easy matchup against Jon Gray, but a modest 5.3 Coors total for LA may take most DFSers off of them in GPPs. Gray has failed to miss many bats in each of his last 2 starts which is puzzling considering those starts were against the Angels and Padres. He has lost a little bit of movement on his fastball and has had trouble with lefty power, allowing a 26% LD rate as well as 38% hard-contact to them. If Gray is unable to miss these scary bats, this Dodgers stack can have a lot of success at low ownership in the best hitting environment on the night.
Oakland (vs. Yovani Gallardo)
The A’s may not hit in the best park, but they will have the ball in play a lot tonight against Yovani Gallardo, who comes into this game with just a 5.7% Swinging-Strike rate and 25.2% O-Swing rate. Gallardo has struggled to get ahead in counts, which could put him at a huge disadvantage against a patient team that has loads of power. I love guys like Khris Davis, Matt Olson, and Matt Chapman, but Jed Lowrie, Stephen Piscotty, and Ramon Laureano all make for excellent fillers in a full stack.
Astros (vs. David Price)
Price is a good pitcher, and basically looks like peak David Price right now, but the Astros have been crushing lefties since they started to get healthy. Since August 1, Houston ranks #1 in wRC+, wOBA, ISO, and OBP against lefties, reminding us why they are the defending world champs. The Astros will have next to no ownership, but I’ll be taking a lot of shots on them in tournaments as 4-5 man stacks, especially with Bregman, Altuve, Correa, and White.
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