Daily Fantasy Baseball Top Pitchers on DraftKings & FanDuel

MLB’s 2021 regular season is in full swing, and the Awesemo.com Spotlight Pitchers article is here to help guide the slate of pitching decisions for both DraftKings and FanDuel. Each day will feature breakdowns of starting pitchers using Awesemo’s MLB Top Pitchers Tool by identifying some of the best daily fantasy baseball starting pitching plays on each slate based on Awesemo’s top value and top-scoring projections for the slate, relative to their projected ownership.

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Top Daily Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitchers | April 16

Max Scherzer: WAS vs. ARI — DraftKings $10,400, FanDuel $10,400

Max Scherzer looks to right the Nationals’ ship on Friday following an absolute destruction of Patrick Corbin on behalf of the Diamondbacks. Scherzer’s two starts this season have produced a .186 average against, 0.75 WHIP, 10.5 K/9, 31.8% strikeout rate, 2.3% walk rate and 3.75 ERA, averaging 19.8 DraftKings and 33.5 FanDuel points per game. In the second outing of a four-game series with Arizona, Scherzer has the opportunity to put up significant fantasy numbers.

Awesemo Top Pitchers Tool gives Scherzer a 24.8% chance of being a top-two pitcher on DraftKings and a 7.8% chance of being the top pitcher on FanDuel. Awesemo projects Scherzer for 22.21 DraftKings and 37.78 FanDuel points, though his steep salary projects him as a top-two value of 7.4% on DraftKings and a 1.1% of being the top-value pitcher on FanDuel. Ownership projections of 34.6% on DraftKings and 19.1% on FanDuel forecast Scherzer among the more invested pitching options by the field.

Arizona is expected to roll out four lefties and two switch-hitters, which will be a challenge to Scherzer’s command on both sides of the plate. When facing left-handed hitters last year, Scherzer allowed a .314 average against, 1.72 WHIP, 3.99 xFIP and 1.41 HR/9, but he also struck out 26.5% of lefties. When opposing fellow righties, Scherzer’s 1.27 HR/9 isn’t drastically different by comparison, while he had a 36.1% strikeout rate, 1.08 WHIP, .205 average against and 3.12 xFIP. Since last year, Arizona has a .239 batting average, 21.1% strikeout rate, .157 ISO, .309 wOBA and 90 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers. With an 11.4% HR/FB rate through last season (28th in majors), Arizona is weak in Scherzer’s greatest trouble area, lending credence to his value today.

Awesemo’s FanDuel Grades: Points A, Value C

Awesemo’s DraftKings Grades: Points A, Value B

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Jacob deGrom: NYM at COL— DraftKings $11,000, FanDuel $11,000

Prior to his rained-out start yesterday, Jacob deGrom earned possibly the most difficult loss for a pitcher in a 14-strikeout gem against the Marlins, allowing five hits and one run. Averaging 32.8 DraftKings and 55 FanDuel points per game this season, deGrom has a 0.71 WHIP, 0.64 ERA, 13.5 K/9, 42.9% strikeout rate and .280 BABIP. Taking on a Colorado team that has lost six games in a row, deGrom should not be shied away from despite pitching in Coors Field.

Awesemo Top Pitchers Tool gives deGrom a 44.7% chance of being a top-two pitcher on DraftKings and a 13.90% chance of being the top pitcher on FanDuel. He also projects as a top-two pitching value chance of 15.3% on DraftKings and a 1.4% chance of being the top-value pitcher on FanDuel. With ownership projections of 48% on DraftKings and 36.5% on FanDuel for deGrom, wariness of the game’s location doesn’t outweigh deGrom’s fantasy ceiling.

Slated to face six righties, deGrom is in a fantastic matchup despite the home run propensity in Colorado. Last season’s splits for deGrom shed light on minor hiccups against left-handed hitters, earning a 3.30 xFIP, 3.02 FIP, 1.05 HR/9, 10.0% walk rate and 35.7% strikeouts. Looking at his resume against right-handed hitters slaps the bow on top of this selection, as deGrom has ridiculed fellow righties to the tune of 14.44 HR/9, a 42.2% strikeout rate, 0.83 WHIP, 0.80 HR/9, 3.1% walk rate, 1.50 FIP and .195 average against last season. The Rockies are hitting for just an 11.8% HR/FB rate against right-handed pitchers through last season despite playing in Coors Field. Colorado also has a .243 average against, 24.4% strikeout rate, .298 wOBA and league-low 70 wRC+ versus righty pitchers. Albeit a fragile locale for starting pitchers, deGrom should have little concern in extinguishing this Rockies batting order.

Awesemo’s FanDuel Grades: Points A, Value A

Awesemo’s DraftKings Grades: Points A, Value A

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Zach Eflin: PHI vs. STL — DraftKings $8,600, FanDuel $8,500

In Eflin’s two starts this season (both against the Braves) it has been a tale of two pitchers, as he went from one dominant start into a destructive one the next time out. Currently averaging 15.7 DraftKings and 29 FanDuel points, Eflin has a 20% strikeout rate, 6.92 K/9, .229 average against, 1.00 WHIP, .250 BABIP and 4.06 FIP. Yet facing a questionable Cardinals batting order, Eflin’s chances for a rebound appear more likely than otherwise.

Awesemo Top Pitchers Tool gives Eflin a 9.0% chance of being a top-two pitcher on DraftKings and a 4.5% chance of being the top pitcher on FanDuel. He also projects as a top-two pitching value of 5.7% on DraftKings and a 2.1% chance of being the top-value pitcher on FanDuel. Awesemo is expecting 5.8% field investment on DraftKings and 2.1% on FanDuel as a surprisingly low-owned option on both sites.

Welcoming a Cardinals batting order projected for a whopping seven righties and two switch-hitters, Eflin’s sailing looks to be smoother than his recent outing against the Braves. When facing right-handed hitters last season, Eflin had a 27.1% strikeout rate, 9.55 K/9, 0.27 HR/9, 1.03 WHIP, .250 average against and 2.81 xFIP. While his troubles against opposite-handed hitters remains more evident (2.42 HR/9, 5.27 FIP, 1.50 WHIP), Eflin struck out 30.2% of lefty batters to his credit while earning 12.12 K/9 against the split. With St. Louis looking mediocre at best thus far, since last season the Cards have a .232 batting average, 24.4% strikeout rate, .302 wOBA, 91 wRC+ and a 11.5% HR/FB rate against right-handed pitching. In a sea of tumultuous options beneath the three premium pitchers, Eflin’s matchup and price point shine through.

Awesemo’s FanDuel Grades: Points C, Value D

Awesemo’s DraftKings Grades: Points C, Value C

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Author

Chris Giordani

Once a man of 12-team teaser parlays and an abundance of season-long fantasy leagues, Chris "TopherSquints" Giordani gradually honed his fascination for sports and plus-money wagers toward Daily Fantasy Sports. A homegrown Awesemo student from the early stages of the site's inception, he became infatuated with the contrarian DFS mindset and eventually combined his passion for writing with Daily Fantasy at the Sports Gambling Podcast's website blog. Currently, Chris Giordani resides in Orange County, California, enjoys binging on stand-up comedy, and long strolls through the DraftKings lobby.