Daily Fantasy Baseball Top Pitchers on DraftKings & FanDuel

MLB’s 2021 regular season is in full swing, and the Awesemo.com Spotlight Pitchers article is here to help guide the slate of pitching decisions for both DraftKings and FanDuel. Each day will feature breakdowns of starting pitchers using Awesemo’s MLB Top Pitchers Tool by identifying some of the best daily fantasy baseball starting pitching plays on each slate based on Awesemo’s top value and top-scoring daily fantasy baseball projections for the slate, relative to their projected ownership.

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Top Daily Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitchers | April 19

Joe Musgrove: SD vs. MIL — DraftKings $10,200, FanDuel $10,500

Musgrove takes the mound Monday with a salary tag that reflects his recent no hitter. This season Musgrove has 11.37 K/9, a 35.8% strikeout rate, 1.09 average against, 0.47 WHIP and stranded 100% of batters reaching bases in three starts thus far (19 innings pitched). Averaging 33.6 DraftKings and 48.66 FanDuel points, Musgrove draws the start against an 8-7 Brewers team still without its star hitter Christian Yelich.

Awesemo Top Pitchers Tool gives Musgrove a 31.90% chance of being a top-two pitcher on DraftKings and a 12.50% chance of being the top pitcher on FanDuel. Awesemo’s daily fantasy baseball projections have Musgrove slated for 20.81 DraftKings and 35.08 FanDuel points, the best projected option on both sites for Monday’s main slate. His Projected ownership for 38.6% on DraftKings and 28.5% on FanDuel indicate his popularity amongst the field, yet nothing tipping the scale entirely.

Slated to face a five lefties, Musgrove’s command from both sides of the plate will need to be in full effect. Musgrove had 13.50 K/9, a 35.3% strikeout rate, .281 average against, 5.9% walk rate, 1.38 WHIP, 2.15 xFIP, .421 BABIP and 1.13 HR/9 against righties last year. Those numbers dipped a bit to 11.79 K/9, 31.6% strikeout rate, 3.99 FIP, 1.14 HR/9, 15.8% HR/FB and walking a concerning 12.2% of lefties-faced. Providing some relief to Musgrove, since last season, the Brewers have a .215 batting-average, 26.8% strikeout rate, .155 ISO and 82 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers.

The most expensive option on Monday’s six-game slate, Musgrove is drawing a very manageable opponent at home with good weather projected. He has a proven high ceiling, averaging over six innings a game, and he makes a worthy spend-up on Monday’s MLB main slate.

Awesemo’s FanDuel Grades: Points A, Value D

Awesemo’s DraftKings Grades: Points A, Value B

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Dylan Bundy: LAA vs. TEX — DraftKings $7,700, FanDuel $9,000

Bundy is taking on the division rival Rangers at home, and he is off to a good start to the fantasy season. Averaging 20.3 DraftKings and 38 FanDuel Fantasy points in three starts (19 innings pitched), Bundy has a 10.42 K/9, 28.6% strikeout rate, 3.63 FIP, 1.05 WHIP and 6.5% walk rate, while his fastball velocity is up from last season (most recently over 93 mph, and as low as 86 mph in 2020). The Rangers have struggled against right-handed pitching, which makes Bundy’s savings on DraftKings all the more appealing.

Awesemo is projecting Bundy for 19.41 DraftKings and 33.59 FanDuel points, correlating directly with his top-pitcher projections. Awesemo’s Top Pitcher Tool also gives Bundy a top-two chance of 28.4% on DraftKings and a 7.2% chance of being the top-value pitcher on FanDuel. Bundy’s projected ownership of 38.6% on DraftKings and 17.0% on FanDuel find him garnering some of the most popularity for Monday’s main slate considering his price point and opponent.

The Rangers are projected to assign five lefties and one switch-hitter on Monday night. In 2020, when facing opposite-handed batters, Bundy averaged a 22.2% strikeout rate with 8.20 K/9, .217 average against, 0.96 HR/9, 8.5% walk rate, 1.15 WHIP and 3.97 FIP, which could be better but also could be far worse. Against fellow righties, Bundy has performed noticeably greater, striking out 33.3% and posting 12.07 K/9, 0.88 WHIP, 2.64 xFIP, 0.32 HR/9 and 3.5% walk rate. The Rangers’ performance against right-handed pitching has been toward the bottom of the majors, with a .217 batting-average, 26.2% strikeout rate, .291 on-base rate, .144 ISO and 80 wRC+ from since 2020. Bundy is a bit of a spend-up on FanDuel, but he is priced down on DraftKings. As such, he projects as a great value today.

Awesemo’s FanDuel Grades: Points A, Value B

Awesemo’s DraftKings Grades: Points A, Value A

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Danny Duffy: KC vs TB — DraftKings $7,000, FanDuel $8,300

In his 11th year in the majors, Danny Duffy has pitched a solid two starts in 2021 despite his strikeout rate being down slightly from recent seasons. Duffy has gone six innings in both starts this season, averaging 23.3 DraftKings and 43 FanDuel points. Welcoming the Rays to Kauffman Stadium, Duffy will be put to the test on Monday while priced as an affordable pitching option. Awesemo Top Pitchers Tool gives Duffy a 21.0% chance of being a top-two pitcher on DraftKings and a 10.2% chance of being the top pitcher on FanDuel, and his top value projections of 28.1% and 9.4% are right in line. He is essentially the most popular pitcher on the slate, however, as he provides much spend-up room for rostering pricey batters.

Tampa Bay will employ six righties. Last year Duffy had a 26.5% strikeout rate, 9.72 K/9, 1.08 WHIP, .219 average against, 5.9% walk rate and 1.08 HR/9 against lefties. When facing opposite-handed batters, Duffy’s numbers weren’t quite as concrete, but the discount comes at a sacrifice: 23.1% strikeout rate, 9.0 K/9, .254 average against, 1.38 WHIP, 5.00 FIP, 9.6% walk rate, 1.69 HR/9 and 13.6% HR/FB rate. Tampa’s track record against left-handed pitching since 2020 has been successful but not impossible to navigate, as they have a .238 batting-average, 28.6% strikeout rate, .211 ISO, .340 on-base rate and a daunting 123 wRC+. While the matchup may be tough, Duffy provides a breathable price point and strong production in 2021.

Awesemo’s FanDuel Grades: Points B, Value B

Awesemo’s DraftKings Grades: Points B, Value A

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Author

Chris Giordani

Once a man of 12-team teaser parlays and an abundance of season-long fantasy leagues, Chris "TopherSquints" Giordani gradually honed his fascination for sports and plus-money wagers toward Daily Fantasy Sports. A homegrown Awesemo student from the early stages of the site's inception, he became infatuated with the contrarian DFS mindset and eventually combined his passion for writing with Daily Fantasy at the Sports Gambling Podcast's website blog. Currently, Chris Giordani resides in Orange County, California, enjoys binging on stand-up comedy, and long strolls through the DraftKings lobby.