MLB’s 2021 regular season is in full swing, and the Awesemo.com Spotlight Pitchers article is here to help guide the slate of pitching decisions for both DraftKings and FanDuel. Each day will feature breakdowns of starting pitchers using Awesemo’s MLB Top Pitchers Tool by identifying some of the best daily fantasy baseball starting pitching plays on each slate based on Awesemo’s top value and top-scoring daily fantasy baseball projections for the slate, relative to their projected ownership.
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Top Daily Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitchers | April 26
Corbin Burnes: MIL vs. MIA — DraftKings $10,400; FanDuel $11,100
Corbin Burnes takes the mound as the Brewers head back home to face the Marlins. Last season Burnes 13.27 K/9 had a 36.7% strikeout rate, .174 average against, 1.04 WHIP, 10% walk rate, stranding 80.1% of batters reaching bases and surrendering just an 0.30 HR/9. This year he has been basically as good, averaging 34.5 DraftKings and 54.5 FanDuel points through four starts this season. A matchup with the Marlins could easily lead to another massive fantasy performance.
Awesemo Top Pitchers Tool gives Burnes a 40.5% chance of being a top-two pitcher on DraftKings and a 14.3% chance of being the top pitcher on FanDuel, projected as Monday’s top pitching option. Burnes’ steep cost on both sites makes him a 15.6% top-two value on DraftKings and 2.3% top-value on FanDuel. However, his MLB DFS ownership projections of 55.2% DraftKings and 37.4% on FanDuel indicate his heavy popularity.
Burnes is scheduled to face six righties in the Marlins batting order. Last season against right-handed hitters, Burnes had 13.17 K/9, a 38.1% strikeout rate, 9.5% walk rate, .140 average against, 0.84 WHIP, 0.33 HR/9 and 2.06 FIP, and against lefties his numbers were actually slightly worse (though still great). With Burnes in command attacking both sides of the plate, it’s hard to see much of the Miami order giving him trouble. Lead-off hitter Jazz Chisolm and outfielder Corey Dickerson batting seventh are the lefties projected to start, with Chisolm hitting a .989 OPS against right-handed pitching this season. Yet since last season, Miami has swung a .231 batting average, 25.&% strikeout rate, .347 slugging percentage, 87 wRC+ and a 10.2% HR/FB rate. The field ownership may be undesirable, but the fantasy ceiling Burnes is worth the roster.
Awesemo’s FanDuel Grades: Points A, Value B
Awesemo’s DraftKings Grades: Points A, Value A
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Julio Urias: LAD vs. CIN — DraftKings $9,700; FanDuel $9,900
Julio Urias takes the mound for the Dodgers on Monday to open a homestand series against the Reds. Proving he can go the distance early into 2021, Urias is averaging 22.8 DraftKings and 39.25 FanDuel points in four starts this season. Last season Urias notched a 20.1% strikeout rate, 3.72 FIP and 0.82 HR/9. Awesemo Top Pitchers Tool gives Urias a 11.9% chance of being a top-two pitcher on DraftKings and a 6.5% chance of being the top pitcher on FanDuel. His 3.9% top-two value on DraftKings and 1.8% top-value on FanDuel convey his middling point projection in tandem with high asking price. His daily fantasy baseball ownership projections of 6.5% DraftKings and 1.5% on FanDuel make Urias a considerable pivot option at starting pitcher on Monday’s nine-game affair.
The Reds are due to load up on Urias with seven right-handed hitters, a daunting assignment for the lefty pitcher. He is better against lefties, as evidenced by a .137 average allowed and 25% strikeout rate, but his 1.29 WHIP and 3.66 FIP against righties are not too bad either. Concern comes more from the right-handed power scattered throughout the Reds order. Second and third batters Nicholas Castellanos and Eugenio Suarez are formidable, and Castellanos has a 1.077 OPS off lefty pitchers this season. Yet the Reds strike out 24.4% since last season against left-handed pitchers and have a .204 batting average, .295 on-base rate, .176 ISO and 80 wRC+. Although he may not be the top projected option on the slate, Urias makes for an excellent pivot off Burnes to mitigate the heavy ownership.
Awesemo’s FanDuel Grades: Points B, Value E
Awesemo’s DraftKings Grades: Points B, Value D
Austin Gomber: COL at SF — DraftKings $6,200; FanDuel $6,000
Austin Gomber has made a surprising start to the season and comes into Monday’s nine-game main slate providing massive salary relief. Last season with the Cardinals, Gomber had a 1.17 WHIP and 3.54 FIP, though his 12.6% walk rate remains a concern this season. Averaging 15.3 DraftKings and 29.5 FanDuel points in three starts this year, Gomber’s gets the Giants in a park that favors pitching.
Awesemo Top Pitchers Tool gives Gomber a 7.1% chance of being a top-two pitcher on DraftKings and a 4.5% chance of being the top pitcher on FanDuel. His savings and solid point projections make him a 15.2% top-two value on DraftKings and 11.5% top-value on FanDuel. His daily fantasy baseball ownership projections of just 3.2% DraftKings and 0.80% on FanDuel signify Gomber’s under-the-radar status as a low-owned pitching alternative.
Gomber is due to face a lopsided Giants batting order consisting of seven righties, much to his advantage. Last season against right-handed hitters, the lefty Gomber had 9.82 K/9, 1.09 WHIP and 2.37 FIP with no home runs surrendered. Those numbers were all considerably worse against lefties. Obviously, that makes Mike Yastrzemski (third) and Tommy La Stella (seventh) the areas of worry. Yastrzemski has earned an .867 OPS and 134 wRC+ against left-handed pitching this season, while La Stella has struck out just 4.6% against lefties. Through last season, San Francisco has a 20.8% strikeout rate, 119 wRC+ and a daunting 20.6% HR/FB rate. But Gomber’s 9.5% HR/FB rate could mitigate that, and on a Monday slate loaded with expensive hitting stacks to chase, Gomber provides the frugality necessary to reach those hitters.
Awesemo’s FanDuel Grades: Points D, Value A
Awesemo’s DraftKings Grades: Points B, Value C
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