Daily Fantasy Baseball Top Starting Pitchers Projections & Ownership for DraftKings & FanDuel

MLB’s 2021 regular season is in full swing, and the Awesemo.com Spotlight Pitchers article is here to help guide the slate of pitching decisions for both DraftKings and FanDuel. Each day will feature breakdowns of starting pitchers using Awesemo’s MLB Top Pitchers Tool by identifying some of the best daily fantasy baseball starting pitching plays on each slate based on Awesemo’s top value and top-scoring daily fantasy baseball projections for the slate, relative to their projected ownership.

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Top Daily Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitchers | April 24

Marcus Stroman (Early Slate): NYM vs. WAS — DraftKings $8,500; FanDuel $8,800

Marcus Stroman takes the mound for the Mets Saturday in the second game of a weekend series with Washington. Averaging 22.2 DraftKings and 39 FanDuel points in three starts this season, Stroman’s last full season in 2019 (with two teams) resulted in 7.76 K/9 with a 20.5% strikeout rate, 7.5% walk-rate, .256 average against, 1.31 WHIP, 3.72 FIP and 0.88 HR/9. Taking on a Washington team that just struck out 15 times against Jacob deGrom, although an anomaly, makes for an intriguing matchup for the eccentric righty.

Awesemo’s daily fantasy baseball point projections align Stroman for 17.23 DraftKings and 30.51 FanDuel points. Stroman’s point projection combined with mid-tier salary cost result in a 2.03 DraftKings and 3.47 FanDuel value rating, according to Awesemo projections. Stroman’s daily fantasy baseball ownership projections of 33.3% DraftKings and 20.2% on FanDuel signify his popularity on both sites while not tilting the scale too heavily.

Scheduled to face six right-handed hitters, two lefties and one switch-hitter, Stroman draws a favorable Nats batting order. In 2019, when facing left-handed hitters, Stroman tossed 7.74 K/9 with a 19.9% strikeout rate, .291 average against, 1.06 HR/9, 6.7% walk-rate, 1.48 WHIP and 3.90 FIP. Against right-handed opposition he pitched 7.78 K/9 with a 21.3% strikeout rate, .220 average against, 1.15 WHIP, 3.53 FIP, 0.69 HR/9, and 8.4% walk-rate. Stroman also mitigated damage with a solid 26.1% fly-ball rate and 12.6% HR/FB rate.

With lefties Andrew Stevenson and Kyle Schwarber batting first and fifth, while switch-hitter Josh Bell is hitting fourth, the treading for Stroman could have some hiccups in those early spots of the Nats’ batting order as his strikeouts are down this season at 15.1%. The Nationals hitting against right-handed pitching has produced a .249 batting average, 21.5% strikeout rate, .324 on-base percentage, .144 ISO and 92 wRC+ with an 11.2% HR/FB rate over the past season. With iffy pitching in the mid-range tier on both sites for the early slate, Stroman proves to be one of the best options by way of projections and matchup advantage.

Awesemo’s FanDuel Grades: Points B, Value C

Awesemo’s DraftKings Grades: Points B, Value B

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Trevor Bauer: LAD vs. SDP — DraftKings $11,000; FanDuel $11,000

Trevor Bauer looks to right the ship for the Dodgers after they dropped their last two games against the Padres. Averaging 28.4 DraftKings and 47.25 FanDuel points in four starts this season, Bauer is slightly improved from 2020 where he notched an impressive 12.33 K/9 with a 36% strikeout rate, .159 average against, 0.79 WHIP, 1.11 HR/9, 6.1% walk-rate, and 2.88 FIP. The Padres pose a threat from both sides of the plate while Bauer remains a top-projected option for Saturday’s main slate.

Awesemo Top Pitchers Tool gives Bauer a 47.1% chance of being a top-two pitcher on DraftKings and a 27.8% chance of being the top pitcher on FanDuel. Bauer’s 18.1% top-two value on DraftKings and 4.5% top-value on FanDuel are tilted by his insanely high salary cost. His MLB DFS ownership projections of 32.2% DraftKings and 19.7% on FanDuel convey Bauer’s popularity without being the most-invested option by the field.

Bauer’s scheduled to face four right-handed hitters, four left-handed hitters (including Snell) and one switch-hitter in the Padres batting order. Against lefties in 2020, Bauer tossed 13.03 K/9 and w 37.7% strikeout rate, .170 average against, 0.87 WHIP, 3.90 FIP, and 1.89 HR/9 that’s improving this season. Facing right-handers last year, Bauer pitched 11.57 K/9 with a 34.1% strikeout rate, 5.3% walk-rate, 1.76 FIP, and ridiculous 0.29 HR/9.

While Bauer may see trouble with Fernando Tatis Jr as lead-off hitter and Manny Machado batting third, lefties Eric Hosmer and Trent Grisham pose equal threats hitting second and fourth in the San Diego order as the four hitters combine for an average .808 OPS against right-handed pitching this season. The Padres facing right-handed pitching over the past season have swung for a .253 batting average, 20.6% strikeout rate, .191 ISO, and 112 wRC+. While they’ve hit for a 16.4% HR/FB rate that remains daunting, the Padres have also hit into a 45.2% ground ball rate since 2020. The salary tag is a big ask but the fantasy ceiling is high for Bauer in a cool 59-degree Dodger Stadium.

Awesemo’s FanDuel Grades: Points A, Value B

Awesemo’s DraftKings Grades: Points A, Value A

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Drew Smyly: ATL vs. ARI — DraftKings $8,200; FanDuel $6,700

Smyly takes the assignment for the second game in their homestand against the Diamondbacks. Averaging 13.4 DraftKings and 24.5 FanDuel points in two starts this season, the journeyman Smyly last churned a 37.8% strikeout rate with 14.35 K/9, 8.1% walk-rate, 0.68 HR/9, .196 average against, and 1.10 WHIP in seven games and five starts with San Francisco in 2020. At a fair cost on DraftKings and significant discount on FanDuel, Smyly’s matchup with Arizona stands inviting.

Awesemo Top Pitchers Tool projects Smyly a 22.1% chance of being a top-two pitcher on DraftKings and a 9.3% chance of being the top pitcher on FanDuel. Smyly’s reasonable salary cost warrants a 19% top-two value on DraftKings and 15.6% top-value on FanDuel. With daily fantasy baseball ownership projections of 19.7% DraftKings and 12.7% on FanDuel, Smyly remains among the middle of the pack in regards to field investment.

Smyly’s scheduled to face three lefties, four righties, and two switch-hitters on behalf of Arizona. Against fellow lefties Smyly turned an 11.81 K/9 with 35.9% strikeout rate, 7.7% walk-rate, .083 average against, 0.56 WHIP and 1.41 FIP. Facing right-handed hitters last season Smyly earned a 16.09 K/9 and 38.9% strikeout rate, 1.47 WHIP, 8.3% walk-rate, 2.43 FIP and 13.3% HR/FB rate.

Lead-off righty Andy Young is hitting a 1.50 ISO against lefties while Carson Kelly batting fifth has a 2.46 OPS against them, and could be a problem for Smyly on Saturday evening in Atlanta with 95% humidity. Arizona is hitting a .242 batting average, 20.5% strikeout rate, .316 on-base percentage, 92 wRC+ and 11.8% HR/FB rate facing left-handed pitchers through last season. On a manageable six-game slate of pitching options, Smyly’s provided savings and projections offer the value necessary as a secondary pitching option.

Awesemo’s FanDuel Grades: Points B, Value A

Awesemo’s DraftKings Grades: Points B, Value A

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Author

Chris Giordani

Once a man of 12-team teaser parlays and an abundance of season-long fantasy leagues, Chris "TopherSquints" Giordani gradually honed his fascination for sports and plus-money wagers toward Daily Fantasy Sports. A homegrown Awesemo student from the early stages of the site's inception, he became infatuated with the contrarian DFS mindset and eventually combined his passion for writing with Daily Fantasy at the Sports Gambling Podcast's website blog. Currently, Chris Giordani resides in Orange County, California, enjoys binging on stand-up comedy, and long strolls through the DraftKings lobby.